1. 05-30-15 05:47 PM #1
    Bryan T
    Bryan T's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-12
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 1788

    Stealing value on GS ML Game 1

    [IMG][/IMG]

    Got it at -160 instead of -220. Only thing is I lose $142 and push the rest if they win by 4. Good capping or am I missing something?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 05-30-15 05:51 PM #2
    Bryan T
    Bryan T's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-12
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 1788

    I could also buy another .5 point to guarantee a W if GS wins but that will turn the ML into -190 which is still better then -220
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 06-01-15 01:31 AM #3
    louielouie
    louielouie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-06-13
    Posts: 3,149
    Betpoints: 552

    But they will lose game 1 so this bet will be no money
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 06-01-15 03:04 PM #4
    Bryan T
    Bryan T's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-12
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 1788

    I believe over 80% of home teams win game 1 in the finals. GS has only lost 3 times total at home this year. The public is on CAVS. I like my chances.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 06-01-15 03:08 PM #5
    Bryan T
    Bryan T's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-12
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 1788

    I do think Cavs win series but not game 1. I'm also going to bet GS wins game 1 but loses series at +500
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 06-01-15 04:45 PM #6
    Bryan T
    Bryan T's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-12
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 1788

    [IMG][/IMG][IMG][/IMG]

    Found way better value on GS ML game 1. Bet $907 to win $1000. This means they only have to win the game 48% of the time to be +EV. Everything covered so no chance for a push.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 06-01-15 05:08 PM #7
    Throwawayaway
    Throwawayaway's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-15
    Posts: 172
    Betpoints: 127

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryan T View Post
    [IMG][/IMG][IMG][/IMG]

    Found way better value on GS ML game 1. Bet $907 to win $1000. This means they only have to win the game 48% of the time to be +EV. Everything covered so no chance for a push.


    Great find there. Amazing odds. I just think Cleveland sweeps GSW, so I wouldn't bet it, but you still made a good bet.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 06-01-15 05:10 PM #8
    Throwawayaway
    Throwawayaway's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-15
    Posts: 172
    Betpoints: 127

    I actually take that back... looks like you wagered 907.82, and can only win 1,000.... so only a 92.18 profit... am I wrong or not? That's what it looks like... upon further inspection.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 06-01-15 05:28 PM #9
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryan T View Post
    [IMG][/IMG]

    Got it at -160 instead of -220. Only thing is I lose $142 and push the rest if they win by 4. Good capping or am I missing something?
    Um..WHAT? If Warriors win by 1-3, you LOSE $450.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 06-01-15 06:05 PM #10
    Throwawayaway
    Throwawayaway's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-15
    Posts: 172
    Betpoints: 127

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Um..WHAT? If Warriors win by 1-3, you LOSE $450.


    So true... this guy who made the bet must be VERY new to betting...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 06-01-15 07:02 PM #11
    Bryan T
    Bryan T's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-12
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 1788

    Yeah, i knew I was missing something. Too good to be true. I havent' bet anything yet. Just trying to find some angles.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 06-01-15 11:13 PM #12
    louielouie
    louielouie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-06-13
    Posts: 3,149
    Betpoints: 552

    Wait I thought you bet all of these right with those pictures? Just bet Cavs series price and be happy you made some money.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 06-01-15 11:17 PM #13
    importmoon
    happiness is a warm gun
    importmoon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-11
    Posts: 1,141
    Betpoints: 4806

    give him another line...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 06-02-15 02:08 PM #14
    password
    password's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-12
    Posts: 76
    Betpoints: 704

    Very, very wrong strategy, which will get you broke in no time. Instead of making a bazillion bets on a single game (and in general), of which 1 MIGHT hit, try to find the one that WILL hit (in your opinion of course, unless you have crystal ball or tomorrow's paper) and pound the fuk out of it. It's the only chance you've got at making some money. Any bet is a gamble, but as you get more experience, finding THE bet will get easier. Books set lines based on numbers and statistics, especially in the NBA. Totals for example are very often just the sum of the average points scored by both teams during the season, I've seen that multiple times. That's why lines in the beginning of a season are often way off. But sports isn't always mathematics, so lines aren't always accurate. With time you'll learn (hopefully) to find the weaknesses in lines and exploit them. But never, ever do what you posted above. It's the fastest way to lose alot of money in the long run, even if you get lucky on that particular day. BOL.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 06-03-15 02:07 AM #15
    greypimps
    greypimps's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-13-13
    Posts: 2,175
    Betpoints: 1736

    What happens if warriors miraculously blows them out?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 06-03-15 05:03 AM #16
    Romerowned
    Romerowned's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-12
    Posts: 186
    Betpoints: 2811

    Would the idiots coming in here talking about how the cavs are guaranteed to win please shut up? The man is trying to find a plus ev bet, not talk about imaginary "locks." That crap just annoys me.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 06-03-15 06:16 AM #17
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    IF you like the Cavs to win the series (and let me preface this by saying I am not making any series bets and I don't even know what I am doing for Game 1 yet), a better strategy is bet Cavs ML in Game 1. If they win, stop. If they lose, then bet Cavs series at looks like close to +400.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 06-03-15 10:44 PM #18
    Ratzz
    Ratzz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-07-10
    Posts: 8,965
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    IF you like the Cavs to win the series (and let me preface this by saying I am not making any series bets and I don't even know what I am doing for Game 1 yet), a better strategy is bet Cavs ML in Game 1. If they win, stop. If they lose, then bet Cavs series at looks like close to +400.
    hmm. smart. i like it
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NBA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »