[namwen1]

This morning i took mia at +2. when i checked a few minutes ago Bodog had mia at -1. my sim indicates mia would be good up to -5.5. yesterday the books did the same thing on the okc/was game starting okc as +1 dog then ultimately moving them to -1 fav. Any thoughts?

[southpaw74]

not sure but suns jumped to -4.5 from -2.5 this morning?

[tnnt]

Last time these 2 teams played in Miami, NO lost by a point I think. So it's gonna be a close game. Personally I'm thinking NO is gonna edge it out tonight.

[2daBank]

not sure but suns jumped to -4.5 from -2.5 this morning?

think that has more to do with garnett's and rondo's status

[tnnt]

not sure but suns jumped to -4.5 from -2.5 this morning?

The books really want action on Boston eh? KG is still banged up I dont know how they're be able to hang against Phoenix.

[namwen1]

Last time these 2 teams played in Miami, NO lost by a point I think. So it's gonna be a close game. Personally I'm thinking NO is gonna edge it out tonight.

actually they are playing in new orleans tonight and miami has a poor track record in new orleans; however, miami is the better team this year and new orleans sold it out last night against the rockets. i like miami in this spot. also, miami has san antonio tomorrow night. speaking as someone who played basketball in college(not that carries that much weight) when you have b2b on the road you want to assure yourself of a victory. going 1-1 on a road b2b would be a victory in itself for miami. if i am miami, i like my chances of winning against nor than sas. not to say they won't try to win both games, i just don't see miami taking it easy looking ahead to sas because you set yourself up for 0-2 during this b2b. also, miami has to score in the paint to be successful and i like my chances of doing so against nor than i do against a fresh tim duncan & co.

[tnnt]

actually they are playing in new orleans tonight and miami has a poor track record in new orleans; however, miami is the better team this year and new orleans sold it out last night against the rockets. i like miami in this spot. also, miami has san antonio tomorrow night. speaking as someone who played basketball in college(not that carries that much weight) when you have b2b on the road you want to assure yourself of a victory. going 1-1 on a road b2b would be a victory in itself for miami. if i am miami, i like my chances of winning against nor than sas. not to say they won't try to win both games, i just don't see miami taking it easy looking ahead to sas because you set yourself up for 0-2 during this b2b. also, miami has to score in the paint to be successful and i like my chances of doing so against nor than i do against a fresh tim duncan & co.

a lot of the cappers had them covering +6 and they didnt. So there is such a thing as teams selling out right? I thought the NBA isnt fixed.

[ijenpo]

New Orleans is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami

Treads are there to be broken... but I'm starting to like the idea of fading the public and hitting NOH hard.

[tnnt]

New Orleans is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami

Treads are there to be broken... but I'm starting to like the idea of fading the public and hitting NOH hard.

Why is fading the public a good idea? is it cuz u have better line when u make the bet or is it cuz u think that the public is wrong? Sometimes the pucblic is right right so how to know when to fade and when to tail?

[ijenpo]

Why is fading the public a good idea? is it cuz u have better line when u make the bet or is it cuz u think that the public is wrong? Sometimes the pucblic is right right so how to know when to fade and when to tail?

You never know when to tail or fade the public. It's up to judgement. Historically public plays hits 50-50 and books win on juice. But it's just a feeling I get when I see a game that is, to me, a coin flip, but public is pounding one side. In those scenarios, I like fading the public. I rarely look at trends, but NOH's home record is hard to ignore.

Also namwen1 mentioned, that Miama is going to play b2b with SA tomorrow, so they'll play harder this game? That might be true, but this is NO's 2nd game of a b2b series and I think you can apply the same logic even though they're not on the road. They're at home. They could have won last night's game.They'll want to win tonight.

Looks like a solid play to me...

[tnnt]

You never know when to tail or fade the public. It's up to judgement. Historically public plays hits 50-50 and books win on juice. But it's just a feeling I get when I see a game that is, to me, a coin flip, but public is pounding one side. In those scenarios, I like fading the public. I rarely look at trends, but NOH's home record is hard to ignore.

Also namwen1 mentioned, that Miama is going to play b2b with SA tomorrow, so they'll play harder this game? That might be true, but this is NO's 2nd game of a b2b series and I think you can apply the same logic even though they're not on the road. They're at home. They could have won last night's game.They'll want to win tonight.

Looks like a solid play to me...

hehe gambling is contradictory so I guess go with instinct then.

[BernardMadoff]

My model favored the Hornets by 2 and a half points.

[namwen1]

You never know when to tail or fade the public. It's up to judgement. Historically public plays hits 50-50 and books win on juice. But it's just a feeling I get when I see a game that is, to me, a coin flip, but public is pounding one side. In those scenarios, I like fading the public. I rarely look at trends, but NOH's home record is hard to ignore.

Also namwen1 mentioned, that Miama is going to play b2b with SA tomorrow, so they'll play harder this game? That might be true, but this is NO's 2nd game of a b2b series and I think you can apply the same logic even though they're not on the road. They're at home. They could have won last night's game.They'll want to win tonight.

Looks like a solid play to me...

you're right this is noh 2nd of a b2b series. what i was saying in my post was that miami is not going to play it conservative against a fatigued lesser team(on paper anyway), i.e. benching their starters late in a close game to save them for san antonio, because they may end up losing both games. from a coaches point of view, i like my chances of putting it all out there to beat a noh team that gave it their all just 24 hours ago to beat houston and adjust for the sa game accordingly. when i was in college, there were times when we would play a non-ranked team but a team in our conference then the next night have to play a top 25 team and ya know how we approached the situation...? we made sure we beat the shit out of our conference foe and then hail mary against the ranked team the next night. new orleans is great at home and they have had their way with miami in the past. i watched the houston game last night and the only rest i saw noh starters getting was okafur...when he fouled out. to be honest, i'm not in love with this game to start with because miami has such a tendency to shoot the ball shitty. I was just trying to provide some insight...but as i've said on this forum before: i've learned that i don't really know shit