Miami -1.5? This is a nice hat-trick by Vegas; I took Miami both games at -7,-8, but now I see something different. Squares and Public are riding very high on Miami thinking they will cruise to another victory, but not so. As of now I read that the consensus of betters 60% to 77% are riding Miami (http://www.wunderdog.com/matchup/mia...y-10-2014.html). This will of course change at the start of the game, but don't you think Vegas would do everything in it's power to protect it's investment not lose masses of dough in one night? Anyway, forget about this angle because I think there are better reasons to take the points here.
It's obvious to me that Brooklyn played very hard and competitively in game 2, but lost it in the end. I think that was due to home court advantage. Brooklyn is poised for a breakthrough game here. I know playoffs are much different than regular season, but you don't win 4 games during the regular season for nothin' right? I still think Miami finishes the series in 6 at most.
1. I think Brooklyn will be more prepared here because their starting 5 experience Pierce, Johnson, Thornton, and Williams (notice how I didn't mention Garnet? He's done!).
2. I feel Miami let up in game 2 somewhat (or did Brooklyn step it up that much?), I think this trend continues in game 3. Miami doesn't have much to prove or there is no "statement game" because it's already been stated.
3. (not a very good reason) Miami is horrendous about consecutive victories. I can't see them winning 3 in a row again a decent rival-foe like Brooklyn.
4. Game 1 and 2 was decided in the second half, both games Brooklyn won the 1st half spread. If your nervous about Miami breaking it open in the second half, then take the first half. I think that's safe wager. That being said, it's especially true in the second half of game 2 at the 6 minute mark, that it came down to a 1 possession game but failed to capitalize.
All-in-all, Brooklyn is poised for victory, they have the tools necessary to breakdown Heat. However, like a true sharp, you should want to wait 'til the start of the game so that the line moves at least +1pt and get even better value.
GL!