Two more Game Sevens on tap Sunday as we bring the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs to a close. Saturday was largely disappointing for fans and sharps…as the games lacked drama until the nightcap out West, two of the three were covered by favorites…and two of the three games went Over their totals. How are the Wise Guys betting Sunday’s grand finales? Let’s take them in tipoff order. BROOKLYN AT TORONTO: No action on the team side, as Toronto opened at -3 and is still sitting on that number. We know that this means sharps DON’T like the Raptors, or they would have bet right away before public action. But, Brooklyn is the big city team…and New York money hadn’t made its way to Las Vegas by late Saturday or early Sunday. Sources tell us that sharps would likely fade any move off the three at this point. They’d look at Brooklyn +3.5 if the public comes in late on the favorite, and they’d take Toronto -2.5 if New York money does come in on the Nets.
The opening total of 189.5 has been bet down to 188.5. Once again, the old school guys are betting all the Game Seven Unders. That’s worked great in past years…but didn’t work on Saturday in the Western Conference…where both games had faster than expected tempos and excellent shooting. Nothing from the math guys here. As we’ve been saying all week…the algorithms used by sportsbooks are now so similar to those used by the math guys that there are very few big totals moves that aren’t injury or personnel related. DALLAS AT SAN ANTONIO: Here we have another game that’s been frozen on the team side but moved lower on the total. San Antonio opened at -6.5 and is still there. Sharps preferring underdogs aren’t enamored of Dallas given how poorly Atlanta and Memphis played in the second halves yesterday. Golden State also lost the second half big, but was able to cover because they had led by eight at the break. History favors home teams in Game Sevens. Few sharps are going to try to buck history unless they get the full +7 or something better. We know that the Wise guys didn’t like the favorite because there wasn’t an immediate lift to the full seven.
We’ve seen a two-point move on the total, with an opener of 199.5 dropping to 197.5. That’s the biggest move of the day obviously. We’re hearing that both old school guys and matchup guys expect a slower, more defensive minded game than what’s happened in Games Five and Six.
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