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NBA Sharp Betting
We have another batch of Game Two scenarios Wednesday night in the NBA Playoffs, which means three bounce-back situations that will get the attention of sharps (professional bettors) and squares (the general public) alike. We’ve already seen the scoreboard power of the bounce back Monday and Tuesday, with blowout covers by Memphis, the LA Clippers, and Indiana. Toronto rallied for a push as a bounce back favorite against Brooklyn. Only Chicago lost in their attempt to bounce back…and they blew a seven-point fourth quarter lead.
Two big road dogs are in bounce-back situations Wednesday, which differs from a very unique Tuesday where all three hosts were coming off weekend losses. Houston continues Tuesday’s theme however, as they try to avenge a home loss to Portland.
Let’s see how sharps have been betting (or not betting in some cases) Wednesday Night’s tripleheader, going in order of tipoffs.
CHARLOTTE AT MIAMI: This game has stayed at the opener of Miami by 10.5 as of publication time. Squares (the public) sometimes has trouble betting bit ugly dogs in the bounceback, particularly when the home favorite is a defending champion! We’re hearing the Wise Guys are hoping to take Charlotte at +11. There’s no reason to rush in yet for dog players. There are no sharps preferring the favorite here or we would have seen early chalk action. There wasn’t even any position-taking. We can assume from a “frozen” early line that sharps like the dog and are waiting for something better before tipoff.
Sharps have been betting the Over. An opener of 186 has been bet up to 187 or 187.5. The math guys made it 187 based on our reports. Oddsmakers have largely done a good job of being within a point or so of the stat gurus. Sportsbooks are getting smarter about totals, at least in the early going of a series (before pace slows way down).
DALLAS AT SAN ANTONIO: Interesting that the favorite was bet here. Dallas is the bounce-back team. But, San Antonio opened at -7.5 and has been bet up to -8. That goes against the tide, and suggests a few things. Most notably…many are buying into the belief that Dallas will be so demoralized from blowing Game One Sunday that they won’t have any spirit left here. Studio pundits have been making that case. Squares listen to studio pundits. Also, San Antonio has become a public team for betting purposes as the #1 seed and defending Western champion. Sources tell us sharps are hoping to see Dallas +8.5, and will settle for +8 as a bounce back dog if that’s the best they’re going to get before tipoff.
Sharps also like the Over here, as an opener of 198 has been bet up to 199.5. We’re hearing that’s a stat-based move because both teams shot poorly in their early-day tipoff Sunday. They were a combined 9 of 35 from three-point land. Either team (or both) could make nine treys by themselves tonight. Math guys made it 199 or 200.
PORTLAND AT HOUSTON: We mostly have a frozen line here as well. Houston opened at -6 and has largely stayed there. So, some stores are testing Houston -6.5 to see if it generates action. The public hasn’t embraced Houston yet…so this isn’t a public team in a bounce-back, or a perceived league power breathing fire (as Indiana or the LA Clippers were seen). Sources tell us sharps see Portland/Houston in a similar vein to Washington/Chicago in terms of competitiveness for the initial series underdog. They’re looking to take Portland at the apex before tipoff…which could mean +6.5 if more stores nudge the line higher.
The Over/Under hasn’t moved off an opener of 214.5.
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Originally Posted by crustyme
