[RMStanley]

Long term bets usually seem dumb and you'd do better betting round by round (or game by game), but it seems like there's a surprisingly interesting option in the Western Conference right now:

I'd appreciate opinions on this scenario:

Bet $1000 on OKC to win Western Conference at +200 odds.
Bet $1000 on San Antonio to win Western Conference at +300 odds.
Bet $1000 on Houston to win Western Conference at +650 odds.

If OKC wins you break even.
If San Antonio wins you are up $1000
If Houston wins you are up $4500

Obviously your risks are that none of these 3 teams win the Western Conference - but I don't believe that the Clippers can win the conference. Golden State would actually worry me a bit more. Memphis is a very dark horse as well.

Do you think it's worth the (my estimation) 10% risk that the Clippers or Warriors emerge to take a flyer on San Antonio or Houston winning? I feel like San Antonio ($1000 profit) or Houston ($4500) potential reward outweighs the $3000 potential loss risk that LA Clippers and Golden State exposes you to. Plus you could always hedge on LAC (who would be a significant underdog) in a potential WCF to minimize your exposure/potential loss.

[RMStanley]

These are my personal likelihoods of the teams to win the WCF:

San Antonio: 40%
Oklahoma City: 40%
Houston: 10% (you'd basically just need Howard healthy and Beverly/Lin/Harden to stop the dumb turnovers)
LA Clippers: 4%
Golden State: 4%
Memphis: 1%
Field: 1%

[Skin24]

Long term bets usually seem dumb and you'd do better betting round by round (or game by game), but it seems like there's a surprisingly interesting option in the Western Conference right now:

I'd appreciate opinions on this scenario:

Bet $1000 on OKC to win Western Conference at +200 odds.
Bet $1000 on San Antonio to win Western Conference at +300 odds.
Bet $1000 on Houston to win Western Conference at +650 odds.

If OKC wins you break even.
If San Antonio wins you are up $1000
If Houston wins you are up $4500

Obviously your risks are that none of these 3 teams win the Western Conference - but I don't believe that the Clippers can win the conference. Golden State would actually worry me a bit more. Memphis is a very dark horse as well.

Do you think it's worth the 1/10 risk that the Clippers or Warriors emerge to take a flyer on San Antonio or Houston winning?

I like your be I'm going to see if I can get those odds. What book did you get those odds?