[RMStanley]

I struggle with this concept…. At halftime it's Memphis 50, Washington 45.

I have Grizzlies -1.5 for $1500 to win $1354

If I have an opinion on the 2nd half, it's that it ends EVEN and Grizzlies win by 5 by a score of 100-95.

2H lines are up and it's a PICKEM.

GRIZZLIES 2H is 0 and WIZARDS 2H is 0.

I have an MBA (but I'm in sales so it's not like I'm good at cost/benefits) and I can't figure this out. If I'm long-term player, should I hedge? And if so… by how much?

[RMStanley]

Is there a site or a tool that you can use to run these scenarios? If not why doesn't somebody make one?

[RMStanley]

wow - god forbid we have meaningful discussion and try to learn something.

[Git Lo]

If you think it could come down to the last possession and it very well can, Wizards are actually pretty decent, then hedge. You should ditch using terms like long-term short term for individual games where you are not, imo, guaranteed an opportunity to hedge. It looks like you are given an opportunity to hedge. You can choose Wizards straight up, Memphis could only win by 1 and you could win the Wizards bet but lose the original Grizzlies bet.

[Git Lo]

You could also win both as well, Memphis wins by 2 but Wizards score more points in the 2nd half (very tight spread and hard to hit but seems like its worth it.)
IE
Right now its Grizzlies 50 Wizards 45
Score ends Grizzlies 100 Wizards 98
2nd Grizzlies score 50 Wizards score 54 (you win both)

You need to verify this though but I believe this is how 2nd halves work. but this seems like a possible scenario.

[RMStanley]

You could also win both as well, Memphis wins by 2 but Wizards score more points in the 2nd half (very tight spread and hard to hit but seems like its worth it.)

Yeah so my thinking is that if you have some win expectancy there should be a formula that (all things remaining equal from the start of the game… meaning: no significant injuries or foul trouble for impact players) you'd plug the numbers into a formula and the spread ratio would dictate if it's worth trying to hedge or if you should let it ride.

Obviously, the last leg of a parlay or a teaser make it an EASY call that you hedge. There's an ideal number or sweet spot and the same would be true (I would think) for a straight play with a relatively significant middling spread like this game.

[AussieJam]

Yeah so my thinking is that if you have some win expectancy there should be a formula that (all things remaining equal from the start of the game… meaning: no significant injuries or foul trouble for impact players) you'd plug the numbers into a formula and the spread ratio would dictate if it's worth trying to hedge or if you should let it ride.

Obviously, the last leg of a parlay or a teaser make it an EASY call that you hedge. There's an ideal number or sweet spot and the same would be true (I would think) for a straight play with a relatively significant middling spread like this game.

not now man ! COME ON MEMPHIS !

[Git Lo]

It's not so much win expectancy percentage or plugging in numbers but just a scenario analysis, and hedging is guaranteeing profits or negating loses altogether. But your very right it is logical but not required to do this on the last leg of a parlay or series bet. I have a good example I had during the Heat-Mavericks finals. Format was 2-3-2 home court adv Miami. I made a series wager after game 2 that Miami would win the title. The odds were great because Home court had shifted to Dallas because of the 2-3-2 format Dallas won game 2 and the next 3 were played in Dallas and the home team is expected and/or favored to win at home so the odds were in favor for Dallas to win the title. Miami wins game 3 so the adv shifts back to Miami to win the title because the Mavs are now required to win on the road. After game 3 (Miami up 2-1 in the Series) I had multiple opportunities to hedge by wagering the Mavs would win the series (you can still make series bets at this point I think not 100%), or the Mavs will take Game 4 (If the Heat win game 4 and go up 3-1 I don't think a team has come back from being down 3-1 [not 100% sure] but it sure wasn't going to happen against this Heat team so my Heat series bet was good) or wagering on Dirk getting MVP (would require Dallas to win the Finals and the odds of Dirk getting MVP if they won the finals was extremely high and also had the highest payout for Dallas hedges). I wagered 400 to win 350 on Miami winning. 400 on Dirk MVP would of payed 1600. 1600 - 400 (original miami bet) = +1200 or if Miami won 350 (payout) - 400 (dirk mvp) = 50 loss I could of either guaranteed profits or negated potential losses.

[Git Lo]

Also the fact that you have a scenario where both your original bet and the hedge can hit makes it great. not for my example the OP example

[AussieJam]

I struggle with this concept…. At halftime it's Memphis 50, Washington 45.

I have Grizzlies -1.5 for $1500 to win $1354

If I have an opinion on the 2nd half, it's that it ends EVEN and Grizzlies win by 5 by a score of 100-95.

2H lines are up and it's a PICKEM.

GRIZZLIES 2H is 0 and WIZARDS 2H is 0.

I have an MBA (but I'm in sales so it's not like I'm good at cost/benefits) and I can't figure this out. If I'm long-term player, should I hedge? And if so… by how much?

well done man we got it!

[sballen]

I struggle with this concept…. At halftime it's Memphis 50, Washington 45.

I have Grizzlies -1.5 for $1500 to win $1354

If I have an opinion on the 2nd half, it's that it ends EVEN and Grizzlies win by 5 by a score of 100-95.

2H lines are up and it's a PICKEM.

GRIZZLIES 2H is 0 and WIZARDS 2H is 0.

I have an MBA (but I'm in sales so it's not like I'm good at cost/benefits) and I can't figure this out. If I'm long-term player, should I hedge? And if so… by how much?

The short answer: it depends
the long answer:
1) i'm going to assume you have straight bets and not parlays (math is much more complicated for parlays), im also going to assume both bets pay out -110, and lets say each bet is risking $110 to win $100.

2) you'd want to calculate your expected value of hedging to determine if it's the best financial decision. Basically whatever scenario gives you the highest ev is the choice you should make. That also means that you'd need to know the correct odds at halftime of a) the grizz covering the original spread you bet on (at halftime) b) the wiz covering the half time spread, and c) the odds of both the grizz and wiz covering both spreads.

3) next you're going to want to determine the ev of each outcome. In the case of hedging there are fivepossible outcomes 1) you win both bets (i.e. The final score falls within both spreads) and win $200, 2) griz cover but wiz dont and you lose $10, 3) wiz cover and griz dont, you lose $10, 4) you don't hedge and just stick with original griz but griz win, you win $100, and 5) you dont hedge, but griz lose, you lose $110

4) ev = summation of % chance multiplied by payout. So in the above scenario there are many different payouts to calculate. Once each scenario is calculated you would then know the best position to take.

4) pretty simple in theory as you could estimate the odds you believe in scenarios above to determine the best outcome. Realistically you'd need a huge database and a proven computer algorithm to accurately capture the odds since no capper on earth could figure that out on the fly.

Sorry i was gonna type more and may have missed something but its just taking way too long to type this