[dlunc3]

thanks for the response.. has this system / filters been backtested at all?

[BigWangDangALang]

thanks for the response.. has this system / filters been backtested at all?

The 1st Quarter system has not been back tested.
The other system is hard to back test but what we have looked into it, we saw good results. It is just a difficult filter to back test with other scenarios. Tough to explain.

[BigWangDangALang]

1Q -
Miami -3 -115
Houston -3.5 -115
Detroit -.5 -115

[BigWangDangALang]

Charlotte +5 -105
Charlotte should hang around this game. They have been playing well and are at home which they've played well at all season. Ginobli and Leonard both still out and a gimpy Parker being cleared for the game so I do not see the Spurs having the offensive fire power to outscore this defensive minded team. Game should be close the entire game. I believe Charlotte is really undervalued here.

Phoenix ML -165 (Risking 1.65U to win 1U)
Phoenix strikes me as the younger, hungrier team. Key injuries to GSW with Bogut and Lee not suiting up for tonights game really helps the Suns. Phoenix is only a half a game back in the standings and I believe they come out gunning and the better team wins this one. The Warriors have also not fared well in Phoenix in the past. With the Suns young and athletic big men not having to deal with Bogut and Lee, they should all have solid games and be able to dominate the paint and the game.

[tonywayne]

Well, a 5-0 day for me. I went with Utah +3 and Milwaukee +3.5 instead of Miami & Houston. Took the other 3 here. Thanks guys!

[BigWangDangALang]

Well, a 5-0 day for me. I went with Utah +3 and Milwaukee +3.5 instead of Miami & Houston. Took the other 3 here. Thanks guys!

That's great man! Kinda sad because that's the first day the 1Q system went under .500 but things happen. I hate betting on Miami. You only really know that they'll come to play if it's the playoffs.
Still a winning day so I guess I'll take it. Don't be afraid to share thoughts on plays! I enjoy hearing different angles to betting and it helps me to understand different elements in capping games.

[phillyd]

2/8 Results
Charlotte +5 -105
Phoenix ML -165

1Q -
Miami -3 -115
Houston -3.5 -115
Detroit -.5 -115

Today: 3-2 (60%) +.7U
This Week: 13-9-2 (59%) +3.25U

1Q Overall: 30-17-2 (64%) +11.1U
Combined Overall: 58-33-3 (64%) +19.14U

Recap: Not as strong of a day as we wanted but hey, profit is profit. Slowly but surely units will keep going up and up if the quality of the picks are the same each day. Let's try to finish the week off strong tomorrow and get over 20 units overall. Cash out fam

[phillyd]

2/9

1Q -
OKC -3 -115

First play of the day. Wang's a bit busy so I'm filling in for him right now. Plays will be scattered for most of the day but we hope to have all of them in before 5:30 EST.

[KeepItCummin]

phillyd, i wish u guys good luck today! tailed a couple of games ago and did bad... however, i have seen what you guys are doing n cant seem to catch the high times... BOL.. keepitcummin!

[tonywayne]

That's great man! Kinda sad because that's the first day the 1Q system went under .500 but things happen. I hate betting on Miami. You only really know that they'll come to play if it's the playoffs.
Still a winning day so I guess I'll take it. Don't be afraid to share thoughts on plays! I enjoy hearing different angles to betting and it helps me to understand different elements in capping games.

Thanks! Yeah, I noticed that about the o/u .500 on 1Q. It does happen. I totally agree on Miami; any time they play a bad team, especially on the road, it just lands as "that's just the kind of game Miami won't show up for". (Of course, I second-guessed myself out of putting a couple units on Utah to win outright; I think their ML was something like +400. D'oh!)

I'm happy to share how I came up with a pick, I just didn't want to invade your thread. There was another one I was following at one point where I apparently overshared and got someone yelling at me...

For 1Q plays, I look at a few things: for both spread and scoring - season average, last 3 games, last 1 game, and home/away. I compare the season average to the current line, as well as the last 3 games. I don't think going back more than 3 games is very valuable - other than the streakiest of players or teams, a 3-game cycle seems to fit most game variables. I look at last 1 game and home/away to make sure I'm not overlooking anything. Other than a team missing several starters, I tend to ignore "player X is out", since most teams should be capable of picking up the slack.

[phillyd]

Not the start we wanted but we'll rebound! Kinda a ticky tack foul on Stoudemire at the end but it's whatever.

Be back later for the rest of the plays!

[KeepItCummin]

Thanks! Yeah, I noticed that about the o/u .500 on 1Q. It does happen. I totally agree on Miami; any time they play a bad team, especially on the road, it just lands as "that's just the kind of game Miami won't show up for". (Of course, I second-guessed myself out of putting a couple units on Utah to win outright; I think their ML was something like +400. D'oh!)

I'm happy to share how I came up with a pick, I just didn't want to invade your thread. There was another one I was following at one point where I apparently overshared and got someone yelling at me...

For 1Q plays, I look at a few things: for both spread and scoring - season average, last 3 games, last 1 game, and home/away. I compare the season average to the current line, as well as the last 3 games. I don't think going back more than 3 games is very valuable - other than the streakiest of players or teams, a 3-game cycle seems to fit most game variables. I look at last 1 game and home/away to make sure I'm not overlooking anything. Other than a team missing several starters, I tend to ignore "player X is out", since most teams should be capable of picking up the slack.

tony, if you dont mind me asking something about ur strategy. but when u look at these things that u listed, do u look at whole game stats or just 1Q since the play is 1Q. and if its for 1H then u look at 1H as well? same goes for whole game? thanks and dont mean to high jack this thread. keepitcummin...

[tonywayne]

tony, if you dont mind me asking something about ur strategy. but when u look at these things that u listed, do u look at whole game stats or just 1Q since the play is 1Q. and if its for 1H then u look at 1H as well? same goes for whole game? thanks and dont mean to high jack this thread. keepitcummin...

I do look at 1Q, 1H, 2H, etc if that's the play I'm considering. TeamRankings.com has a lot of available scoring stats and fits what I was doing manually before I found the site.

[phillyd]

Memphis -3.5
Dallas ML

[theforce]

Is that it? Not complaining, just trying to figure out bet amounts.

[BigWangDangALang]

Mavs ML is at -170 (Risking 1.7U to win 1U)

Memphis -3.5 -105

1st quarter plays will be up soon

[BigWangDangALang]

1Q -

Boston +1 -110
New Orleans +1.5 -115
Memphis -1 -105

[tonywayne]

Ouch. 0-3-1 on these 1Q bets today. Where did we go wrong? (I had the same 4 you guys did.)

[phillyd]

Ouch. 0-3-1 on these 1Q bets today. Where did we go wrong? (I had the same 4 you guys did.)

Yeah it's just one of those nights, hopefully we can finish 2-0 and minimize the damage.

[BigWangDangALang]

Adding -

Philadelphia +16 -107

[tonywayne]

Based on that 1Q, I'm not feeling very good about the Philly +16 bet... Ugh...

[BigWangDangALang]

Welp, that is a night to forget. Put us in the negative for the week.

[phillyd]

2/9 Results
Mavs ML is at -170 (Risking 1.7U to win 1U)
Memphis -3.5 -105
Philadelphia +16 -107

1Q -
OKC -3 -115
Boston +1 -110
New Orleans +1.5 -115
Memphis -1 -105

Today: 1-5-1 (17%) -4.47U
This Week: 14-14-3 (59%) -1.22U

1Q Overall: 30-20-3 (60%) +7.75U
Combined Overall: 59-38-4 (61%) +14.47U

Recap: Worst day we've had in this threads history so apologies. Who else would've thought Philly would get literally embarassed like they would...oh well we are still almost +15 units overall and WE WILL rebound tomorrow. It's a new day and new week tomorrow fellas, let's rebound and get this money

[tonywayne]

These days happen. I've been wondering what info to glean from all of this. Something strikes me about looking into teams playing under .500 at home/on road/overall... and maybe avoiding those plus basement teams altogether. So difficult to tell when they'll decide to show up versus when they'll founder, especially at this point in the season.

Someone once told me "don't bet NBA until after All-Star break". I think he just avoids it altogether. But, there's certainly something to be said for the teams that decide to turn it on (and can function that way) once the playoffs are within view.

[KeepItCummin]

Someone once told me "don't bet NBA until after All-Star break". I think he just avoids it altogether. But, there's certainly something to be said for the teams that decide to turn it on (and can function that way) once the playoffs are within view.[/QUOTE]


i was wondering this myself. thanks for the wisdom friend. also thanks for the site of stats that u use. helpful tools added to my collection.. good luck today. i think teams are not playing up to their potential as we get closer to allstar wknd. its sort of like getting ready to go on a mini vacation to meet all their friends and party for these guys.

[BigWangDangALang]

2/10 -

Spurs ML -150 (Risking 1.5U to win 1U)
Spurs have been slumping recently but they are still a better team than Detroit. Detroits offense is lackluster because of their lack of jump shooters. There is no one better to exploit this than Popovich. The line is so low because the public is all over Detroit with the new coach, more energy approach but I am not buying that. The spurs consistently know how to win games and I think this one will be no different.

[BigWangDangALang]

1Q -
Houston -1 -115

[phillyd]

Let's start the week off strong fellas

[tonywayne]

Let's start the week off strong fellas

Here's hoping!

[phillyd]

Adding

Philadelphia/Golden State u215 -110

[phillyd]

2/10 Results
Spurs ML -150 (Risking 1.5U to win 1U)
Philadelphia/Golden State u215 -110

1Q -
Houston -1 -115

Today: 2-1 (67%) +.5U
This Week: 2-1 (67%) +.5U

1Q Overall: 31-20-3 (61%) +8.75U
Combined Overall: 61-39-4 (61%) +14.97U

Recap: Barely but we are back to our winning ways for the week. Spurs really look like a team to fade without Leonard who is showing he is a very big piece to their team right now. Anything over 210 for a Philly total also seems like money. Let's get some winning days together as tomorrow's card seems very promising.

[BigWangDangALang]

2/11 -

We are really liking our plays for today. It's gonna be a pretty big card. Our first 2U play as well.

Oklahoma City ML +105 (Risking 2U to win 2.1U)
Oklahoma City is the better team. They are definitely hotter right now and I see them taking this game. The Slim Reaper is taking over games and this one should be no different. Ibaka matches up well with Aldridge and OKC just has a more overall approach than the Blazers trying to outscore teams. We really like OKC in this game. Portland has been slumping and seems to be coasting into the all star break. OKC seems hungrier than ever.

Dallas ML -160 (Risking 1.6U to win 1U)
Dallas has been playing very well the past 7 games and their bench has been leading the league in scoring since Devin Harris made his debut. They are playing better defense as well. Two areas the Mavs can be susceptible to is TOs and offensive rebounds. Charlotte is poor at both of those areas so Mavs should get another win and extend their win streak to 6.

5.5 pt teaser - Washington +10, o176.5 -120 (Risking 1.2U to win 1U)
Washington is a team playing fairly decent right now while the Grizzlies do not seem like the team they were a few games ago with Calathes replacing Conley in the lineup. Washington is very good at creating TOs and with Conley out of the lineup, they can exploit this. They are also very good at defensive rebounding which keeps the Memphis bigs off the glass. This should be a good game to watch and it should come down to the wire.

1Q -
Charlotte +.5 -110
Washington +1.5 -115
Lakers -.5 -105


Lets make some money tonight fellas!

[BigWangDangALang]

cash 1Q Charlotte

[tonywayne]

I forgot to check your picks here. I went 3-1 on my 1Q bets, with the loss being... Charlotte. D'oh! (Wins on Cleveland +1/2, Sac/Cle over 51, Dal/Cha over 50.)

[phillyd]

Guaranteed winning day...just waiting on this OKC game to depend how positive