[Jay Edgar]

Through Tuesday 03.13.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 3-5, -1.89u
(ATL, CLE, MIA, LAC, IND, BOS, POR, SEA)
YTD 248-454, +40.19u
(since the ASB: 39-89, -25.52u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 6-2, +3.90u
YTD 368-322 (.533) +29.90u
(since the ASB: 60-65 (.478) -8.25u)


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 77
2 UTH 69
3 DAL 69
4 MIA 65
5 CLE 64
6 CHI 61
7 PHX 58
8 DET 57
9 HOU 55
10 GS 54
11 PHI 53
12 POR 52
13 MIL 51
14 TOR 50
15 DEN 47
16 NJ 46
17 NY 46
18 ATL 45
19 WAS 44
20 ORL 44
21 SEA 44
22 SAC 43
23 LAC 43
24 NOK 41
25 BOS 40
26 MEM 39
27 CHA 36
28 MIN 36
29 LAX 36
30 IND 33


EDGAR LINES FOR 03.14.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

IND 0.6/106 over WAS

TOR 5.1/186 over NY

CHA 3.0/137 over SAC

ORL 1.7/113 over UTH

PHI 3.8/156 over CHI

BOS 3.5/144 over ATL

MEM 1.7/115 over CLE

HOU 6.2/229 over LAC

DAL 4.8/174 over PHX

POR 3.5/146 over DET


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

WAS +125, IND +112

NY +225, TOR -155

SAC +163, CHA -115

UTH +137, ORL +103

CHI +186, PHI -131

ATL +172, BOS -121

CLE +136, MEM +103

LAC +282, HOU -119

PHX +209, DAL -145

DET +174, POR -123

[bigboydan]

Whats the latest news on Lebron playing tonight Jay?

[Jay Edgar]

I know nothing more than the numbers I see. Which means he's either out or very doubtful.

If in fact he's playing, whoever knows it today has a license to print money.

I hope he's a late addition, because I'd love to get 5 with Memphis in that situation.

[Crayzee]

wow your numbers look geat today sir
(i'm about a 90% dog player)

[Jay Edgar]

And most lines are moving a little differently today -- that is, in the opposite direction and against my teams.

Which I think I like (if I imagine that all the NCAA activity has drawn many more casual players to LV and back online to throw some darts at NBA games for tonight).

That could be a complete fantasy, of course.

[bigboydan]

And most lines are moving a little differently today

I noticed that Jay.

[Jay Edgar]

Wiz-Pacers line just won't quit. Busted right through 5 and 5.5.

Wiz by 4 or 5: happy happy happy

[Jay Edgar]

LBJ?

here it comes

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
8 NY LOSS -100
11 ATL LOSS -100
11 MEM LOSS -100
12 CHA WIN 108
15 ORL WIN 152
19 LAC WIN -100
20 PHI WIN -100
22 IND LOSS -100
24 POR LOSS -100

Apart from the dollars involved (and I hope they are not large for anyone-- they have not been large for me in the last few weeks), all of this is good to know. I hope anyone that's interested is learning along with me, and isn't blindly following here and betting on the theory that the 5%-OFF plays are "due."

I don't think they're "due" to bounce back. They may bounce back some, but it would not shock me if they did not perform much better than this from here on out.

(Why keep going then? To learn more for next year, is reason enough.)

Somewhat as predicted (by me and others), in the final stages of the NBA season the stronger team involved is simply winning the game with more frequency. Fewer games are being given away.

This drives the point home: here are the number of 5%-OFF method moneyline wins of +200 or better, by month:

NOV 18
DEC 20
JAN 27
FEB 19 (13 of those coming before the ASB, and only 6 after)
MAR (so far) 5

The ML plays hit a high of +75.16 YTD units on February 9. They've now given back more than half of those gains. I don't see that turning around while the playoff drive is at its height.

Through Wednesday 03.14.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Wednesday, 2-7, -4.40u
(IND, NY. CHA, ORL, PHI, ATL, MEM, LAC, POR)
YTD 250-461, +35.79u
(since the ASB: 41-96, -29.92u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 4-5, -1.25u
YTD 372-327 (.532) +28.65u
(since the ASB: 64-70 (.478) -9.50u)