I have been recording my prop plays for the season, but I thought I'll start posting them here for SBR members to discuss my plays (and their own).
11-7-1 overall and +2.5 on the season to date.
I may add more plays as more props are brought out.
1.5u on Al Horford U9.5 rebounds @ $2.15 w Luxbet
1.0u on Korver O12.0 points @ $1.87 w Luxbet
I have a bigger play on Horford based on two reasons.
1) His form is terrible, having gone under this line in his past six games. He is only averaging six rebounds in that period.
2) He is coming up against Miami, who concede the fewest amount of rebounds per game.
A smaller play on Korver due to the odds not being as generous. He has gone over this line in 6/10 games. The three point master is closing in on the all time consecutive 3PTM record. He's a very effective shooter from any position on the court, based on the fact he is one of the last to be closed down on the strong Heat roster and often finds himself wide open. He doesn't draw fouls much, but when he does get to the line, he rarely misses.
The line opened at $1.90 and quickly changed to $1.85 as I was trying to get on at $1.90. The odds have since dropped to $1.75. Wade is only averaging 16.7 points this season, but this is where the value appears. He has gone over in 6/8 games, and his two unders were totals of just four and eight points, one of which was the second of a back-to-back game playing just 23 minutes.
1.5u Klay Thompson U20.5 points @ $2.20 w Luxbet
1.0u James Harden O24.5 points @ $1.90 w TAB
1.0u Rudy Gay O22.5 points @ $2.05 w TAB
The largest play of the day is on Klay Thompson going under 20.5 points at the generous odds of $2.20. This is the reason for the larger stake, otherwise anything between $1.85 and $2 would have generated a 1u play. He is averaging 20.5 points on the season and has gone under this total in 6/11 games. Today he comes up against the defensive orientated Memphis side, a team he only scored 12 points against two weeks ago. Some people will say it's a poor play because, with Curry out, Thompson will have to do more of the offensive scoring plays, but I disagree. The Warriors team is deep enough and strong enough with Iggy, Lee and Barnes also capable of putting up numbers. On top of that, Thompson only scored eleven points against the Spurs in the one game the Warriors were without Curry this year.
Harden is only averaging 24.3 points this season and has only gone over 24.5 points in 5/11 games, but due to the Rockets playing another fast paced team in Dallas today, scoring should be at a premium with over 210 points expected. Harden scored 34 points when the two sides did battle earlier in the season. Last year against the Mavs, Harden scored 28, 21, 20 and 39 points. Whilst this is only 2/4 going over 24.5 points, the average here is 27 points.
Gay's fine form warrants a play at over 22.5 points, especially considering I am getting a return of more than double my investment at $2.05. He is only averaging 20.6 points on the season, having only gone over 22.5 in 4/11 games, but of those four games, they have come in his last six encounters, including three of his last four. This play is the one I am least confident about of the three, but based on the odds, I have considered this as one of my plays for today.
1.0u: Tony Parker Over 17.5 points @ $1.90 w TAB
1.5u: Kevin Durant Under 29.5 points @ $1.95 w Betvictor
1.0u: Tim Duncan Over 12.0 points @ $2.15 w Luxbet
I am more confident of Parker going over 17.5 than I am of him going under. He has cleared over 17.5 in 7/14 games, but this is where the bet becomes value. Coach Popovic has continued to manage his veteran players carefully, with Parker only playing 30+ minutes in 8/14 games. In those games, Parker has cleared the 17.5 line in 6/8 games. The 13-1 Spurs tonight come up against the powerhouse 9-3 Thunder. This is a game the Spurs will be desperate to win, so it is very likely that Parker will play 30+ minutes tonight. The Thunder allow 98.8 points per game, which is quite high for arguably the superior team in the West. Surprisingly, Parker only scored 2, 14 and 14 points against the Thunder last year. I was initially going to make this a 1.5 unit play until I noticed that.
Durant has gone under 29.5 in 7/12 games and 3/6 games at home. Last year against the Spurs, Kevin scored 19, 23, 25 and 26. The Spurs' main focus is shutting down the best shooter in the NBA, and tonight will be no exception. Durant has to produce an above average performance to go over this line, and I can't see that happening against the defensive focused Spurs.
Duncan has only cleared this line in 5/11 games, but at $2.15 there is value to be had based on the same logic I provided for the Parker play. He is averaging 28.2 minutes per game and 12.1 points per game. In the games he has played 28+ minutes, he has gone over in 5/7 games. I am expecting him to play 30+ minutes tonight, against a team who concedes 98.8 points per game. In four games against the Thunder last year, Duncan returned with totals of: 24, 13, 12, 20. That's three wins and a push with tonight's line.
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