[Laker_crazy]

Just shared this on my thread,i know the forum is full of experienced handicappers here,but this is for the newbies who might see some sense in it. For all the veterans who read this,if i have skipped out something,please feel free to add your opinion,it is always appreciated.


POINTS TO NOTE FOR NEWBIES BETTING THE NBA

1) The first and foremost point to anyone who is venturing into sports betting,and wants to sustain in the long run and make money is managing your bankroll. Anyone who has made decent money in sports gambling has always avoided giving into temptations completely and betting according to a specific method. If you are new and are thinking of betting for the entire season,please keep in mind that the season is very long and if you stick to a good management system,you will eventually make money in The NBA,and in sports betting.Please remember that you cannot break the bank in a day,but you can slowly and steadily withdraw the funds. If your bankroll is $ 1000 for the entire season,do not bet more than 5% of it on a single play,i say 5% because if you are following a good handicapper then chances are that you will be in the black when the season ends,but sticking to a good bankroll management is a key aspect of being successful.

2) Be Careful of who you choose to follow. If you do not have much knowledge of the sport and want to bet it,please see to it that you have a legitimate person with a proven record who you are going to follow. I have never been against the word 'Tout' or people who charge for their plays,although i personally have never,it is for them to know what they are worth and if they are winning and you are winning,there is absolutely no harm in paying them a % for their hard work but then again credentials should be verified and only if you find them trust worthy should you take their packages or whatever they have to offer. Even otherwise,there are good cappers who just love the sport and post plays,have an eye for them and follow them and be careful from those handicappers who vary their unit sizes to win bets after a few losses,for they are chasing themselves,what winners would they give you?

3) Never chase Losses : This is one of the most important aspects of betting in the NBA and in sports in general and if you happen to bet on a sports book that offers live odds in play,you have to be doubly careful.It is very easy to be swayed away and chase losses.Believe you me,in 8 years of betting basketball,I have NEVER and i mean EVER chased a single bet. My thread stands as my proof of betting and have a look at it completely and show me ONE play where i have posted a play and chased it if i found that it was lagging behind after halftime.May be that is why i have made money.It is very easy to find the odds enticing and if you see the line dropping from where you have placed a bet,you can get carried away and start chasing losses,remember you are not going to fool anyone doing that but yourself. If you are tailing someone,and bet what he posts,just place the bet one time and forget about the game.DO Not chase,for no matter how good a handicapper you follow,once you chase,you become an automatic money magnet for the books.

4) Understand the Sport : You might be fine just following somebody and placing money on their knowledge,fair enough,but it is very important for you to learn and understand the sport yourself. For example if you are betting totals mostly,you should be aware what it takes for the bookmakers to set a line,player injuries,their form,back to back meetings,travel,role of refs,everything comes into play. In the free time you have go through a couple of websites and find whatever information you can get on helping you to understand the sport better.

5) Have Patience : I have noticed it many times that in the long season people run out of patience very soon and especially if the are tailing a particular handicapper.There might be days when they do not post plays for whatever reasons,if you are following them,try not to look for action on that particular day and risk making blunders that would harm your bankroll. Spend time with your family,go out and enjoy a few drinks with friends,watch that favorite movie on the rack,play a sport you love,take a woman on a date,there is so much.Life does not start and end with betting and the sooner you realize this,the better you would be.

6) Bad Beats are a part sports betting : Be aware that there might be days when you would be on the right side of a play and some days where a winner goes down the drain because it goes into over time. Do not rejoice when you win a bet that way and do not cry if you lose it for they will eventually even out in the end. I have had numerous bad beats in my entire duration as a sports handicapper and sometimes i would scratch my head and feel what better could i have done to cap the game the way i did,but remember at the end it is gambling and one can never control the outcome,so the day you have such a bad beat,relax take it in your stride and move on to the next day.

7) Appreciate : This is very basic actually and does not need any explaining as such.If you are following somebody who put in hard work to help you,taking out a minute and saying thank you is not going to hurt or alter your ego,the more you are thankful for,the more you will attract and achieve,basic principle of life.

8) Lastly enjoy what you do : If you are betting basketball,make sure you enjoy watching the sport,after all we need the thrill and the excitement to keep things going,place a bet,open that chilled beer,sit back and watch it,sometimes it can be the most relaxing and rewarding experience. Enjoy it.

Good Luck to all of you for the season,Hope this helped. Any questions and/or opinions are welcome.

Cheers,

Laker_crazy

[la cara]

Well put there

[Laker_crazy]

Well put there

Thanks you

[Rustyglobes]

good and very intelligent write up there L_C.

If you don't mind me asking what are some of the websites you use to do your own statistical research on games?

[hardy4]

great post its all mee just come back to SBR and follow about 10 of u 4 now and luv it but no real consept yet thanks

[Laker_crazy]

good and very intelligent write up there L_C.

If you don't mind me asking what are some of the websites you use to do your own statistical research on games?

Thank you Mate,appreciate the kind words,i use a number of websites mate,i preview the games on nba.com or yahoo sports and for stats i check out hoopsstats,hoopdata.com and others. Good Luck

[Laker_crazy]

great post its all mee just come back to SBR and follow about 10 of u 4 now and luv it but no real consept yet thanks

Thank you mate,i am glad you enjoyed the read,good luck on tailing.This forum has produced the best cappers over a period of time and there is a lot to learn from a lot of time,all it needs is a little bit of time and effort on your part and as far as the concept goes,the only good concept is the one which makes money at the end of the day,and on this forum if you tail the good cappers,that in itself is a money making concept right there for you. Good Luck

[HardCore]

good shit, i gotta keep rule 5 in mind not that i dont have patience but sometimes i forget what the hell is going on outside of the sport im capping. This really only happens during nba/mlb cause i dont do football but even if i did its once a week so its hard to be consumed by it. But the grind of basketball and baseball can really take away from the joys of life but hey everybody has a job to do, its no different than a ceo who works 70hrs a week. Bills have to paid.

[retire/early]

well said....like the part about patience.....everybody needs to chill some times

[cremice]

This was a really good post laker_crazy. I've written up something for the newbies too:

“Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all the time thing. You don’t win once in a while, you don’t do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”
- Vince Lombardi

1. Create your strategy

Sit at the right table.
You really need to understand what you’re getting yourself into before you start putting some money on the line. There are many different formats of games that you can play in. You can play in head-to-head, 3-player, and 5-player games; there are double up, 50/50 games, and even 1000+ person tournaments. There are late games, 2-day games. Many of the veterans have different strategies when it comes to which types of formats they want to play and what percentage of their games are certain formats. However, I strongly think that if you are a beginner, you should really start in the 50/50 games or head-to-head matches and definitely avoid the big tournaments.

Know your enemy.
What led me to many of my victories early on in FanDuel was my ability to scout out weaker opponents. It was not unusual for me to pull out some bigger payout victories against obvious beginners. The way you scout these beginners out is to click on their profile. The profile can reveal a lot about the tendencies of a player. I tend to look for the following criteria:

How many NBA games have they won? (fewer the better)
What percentage of the games they have won are NBA games? (the lower the better)
How many other sports do they play? (the more the better and the less focused they may be)
How long have they been a member of FanDuel? (shorter the better)
How many NBA wins per month have they averaged? (fewer the better)
Advanced scouting. I wouldn’t recommend investing the time to scout to this level unless you’re starting to consider some higher entry fees. It’s just not worth your time if you’re playing just for fun.

Check the leaderboard for the month to see if you can find your opponents name.
Search other forums for your opponent’s username and their activity level.
When to scout for opponents. I’ll repeat it again. Knowing your enemy is extremely important and in formats like heads-up, 3-player, and 5-player games, it’s very realistic for you to be able to scout out a few opponents before games. What I’ve observed is that the veterans who play high-volume games tend to splash the lobby with multiple games even before games are over. Though I like taking them down every once in a while, I prefer to look for the players who fit the profile I described above. So I like to look for my opponents soon after the nights’ games are over or usually an hour or two before the games begin.

Be disciplined.
Fantasy sports is a grind. The NBA season is long and everyone will have their ups and downs. It is a lot of work if you want to be successful. You should not be putting in a line-up if you are not fully satisfied with how much work you have put in that day. If you have some concerns about the players in your line-up – whether they are prone to injury, ejections, possible blow-out scenarios, but you really just have to have him in your line-up, tonight may not be the night to overload on your bankroll. I hate to break it to you, but yes, you are going to lose some games due to weird circumstances. When you see this higher risk and you’re able to hold yourself back, this is the art of Losing Less.

Take measured risks.
On the same side of the coin as being disciplined is taking smart risks. If you have put everything you possibly can into a line-up and you happen to have found a piece of GOLD intel on a situation, commit yourself and don’t look back. You will not regret it even if it doesn’t pan out. This is when you need to exploit your opponents and extract as many wins as you can. Just like in poker, when you have pocket aces, you have to play them, and you have to play them big. Let your money work for you. This is the art of Winning More.

Example: Dwight Howard – 3/12/2013. It was his first game back against the Magic since being traded. It was reported that Kobe made it a point pre-game to tell Howard to show the Magic what they were missing out on. Howard went for 39 points, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal, and 0 turnovers for a total of 65 points!

Learning is required to survive and thrive.
If FanDuel doesn’t require you to constantly learn then something’s wrong. Sitting around pounding a keyboard, pulling out your hair, and checking your phone doesn’t require many new ideas. Adapting and improving does. Improvement is about taking the best of you and making it better. Deep stuff, I know.

Commit to your line-ups.
I’m ALL-IN when I play. I use the same line-up in every game because I hate hedging and betting against myself. I hate rooting for Lebron to score more than 30 but less than 45 so that I can hit in both my match-ups. (e.g., when you have Lebron vs. someone who doesn’t and in another game you don’t have Lebron vs someone who does). When you play, play to win. Don’t play to not lose. This is the opposite of the Win More Lose Less mantra.

Focus on the process, not the outcome.
The concept of winning more and losing less is a state of mind. It’s a state of mind that you will use to govern your decision making.

2. Work HARDER and SMARTER than everyone else

Record everything.
When you win. When you lose. What you predicted. What surprised you. Whose stock is going up? Whose stock is going down? Every lesson, positive and negative, write it down and understand how it’s forming your system and how you can use it to better learn and apply going forward. How can you know if you are getting better unless you know where you’ve come from? What do you need to record? Well, a good place to start is with my FanDuel practice journal post. You seriously cannot improve if you don’t have a baseline to compare yourself to.

Research.
I’ve heard it said like this. FanDuel is 90% exploiting matchups and 10% luck. Accurate and timely Information are the most valuable resources you need. Did you hear that? Seriously. Don’t convince yourself otherwise. Every night I record the highest scoring line-up and for example, how I should have known that Spencer Hawes was going to tear up Brooklyn for 20 points over expected value. I comb through the best players’ line-ups and compare them to my own. What did I get right? What did I get wrong? How do I make these types of picks like them in the future?

Make a Scorecard.
This tip is from Daniel Coyle, the author of “the little book of talent.” Coyle says, “organizations that focus manically on winning today tend to lose sight of the larger goal: learning and developing competencies for the long run. The solution is to create your own scorecard. Pick a metric that measures the skill you want to do develop, and start keeping track of it. Use that measure to motivate yourself. As a saying goes, ‘You are what you count” (Coyle). What do you want to track? Win and Loss record? Money made? The more granular you can get, the clearer you will see where your strengths and weaknesses are. I personally love to track my estimated total versus my actual line-up total.

Measure against your own standards, not others.
If you spend any time in the forums like me, you will realize that everyone has different ways of measuring their success. Some people get excited if they make money. Well, most of us do. But some people get excited when they beat Condia’s score. Others get excited if they can break 300. My advice to you is to stop comparing yourself to others. It’s almost surely apples to oranges and you’ll either feel overly confident or overly disappointed. Either way it’s less than useful. You are your own comparison. Define your success and own it.

1%.
What’s the difference between you and your opponent? It’s 1%. Everyone accesses the same information you do. Everyone runs algorithms. Everyone takes 5 pages of notes every night after losses. Everyone stays up late racking their brain for ways to get an edge. Everyone wakes up early in the morning preparing to grind. Do you?

Face your mistakes.
“Develop the habit of attending to your errors right away. Don’t wince, don’t close your eyes; look straight at them and see what really happened, and ask yourself what you can do next to improve. Take mistakes seriously, but never personally.” (Coyle). One of the first times I decided to track my estimated total versus the actual line-up total on FanDuel, this is how bad it was. On March 6, 2013, I estimated that I was going to score 300 points with my line-up. Marcin Gortat gets injured at the end of the first quarter. I overestimate 7 of my 9 players to the tune of 83 points. I only scored 217 points that night. I was paying $276/point when my goal was $200/point. Man, I got a little unlucky with Gortat, but man was I off the mark. I was stunned as to how bad my guess was. I could have ignored this embarrassing moment, but instead, I became determined to tighten up my strategy and put in work.

Seek out different ways of doing things.
You know what they call people who do the same thing over and over again expecting different results. Unfortunately there is no magic formula and anyone who tries to sell you theirs is a fraud. You need to figure out what works for you by constantly experimenting. See what sticks. Without experiments we’ll never learn anything. Without learning, you’ll get nowhere. Consider FanDuel a series of experiments. Always be testing.

Practice.
How do you get ready for a test? How do you get ready for a game? Practice. Practice. Practice.

Learn who you are.
Analyze your trends through the data. See if you can spot patterns of when you win and when you lose. Everyone is going to have different strengths and different weaknesses. You must learn how to exploit your strengths and hide your weaknesses.

Analyze every investment.
Whether you win or lose, you need to go through the process of understanding the details. Otherwise you’re going to be confused if you’re rich and people are going to just say that you’re lucky. Or you’re going to be broke and no one cares.

Showing up is just the beginning.
If there is no difference between you and JimBob521 who showed up 5 weeks ago and you can’t beat him more than 80% of the time, I’d say that something is wrong. If you’re a JimBob, then I’m sorry, but I’m hunting for you.

Start small.
There is no need to rush into this. Enjoy the few games that you have going on and analyze the crap out of them. Grow your knowledge of what to look for and what to avoid.

Build confidence.
It takes confidence to go into tournaments, 5 player leagues, etc. Don’t be afraid to test the waters every once in a while and see if you’re ready to move up the food chain.

Be consistent.
Track your progress. Track your winnings. Track your decision-making. Be careful not to make emotional gambles.

Don’t start too early.
If you’re like me, there are times when you’re trying to set your line-up at midnight before the games the next day. Don’t be silly. You know you’re going to change it up 30 minutes before your game anyway. Don’t waste your time.

3. Put together your own team

Participate in forums.
It’s fun to have others rooting for you, sharing line-ups, strategies, etc.

Learn from those around you.
Every interaction is a chance to learn. There are a lot of really helpful people willing to share their success and failures with you.

Be careful who you learn from.
The only problem with the fantasy sports world of self-declared statisticians and gurus is that there is more absolute crap available to learn than ever before. More books are being published, more blogs being created and more courses being offered than ever before. By default this means the sheer number of mediocre or downright bad content is going through the roof. Find a way to filter what you consume.

Share notes.
“When you open up your process and invite people in, you learn” (Austin Kleon).

Don’t worry about people stealing your ideas.
“If your ideas are any good, you’ll have to ram them down people’s throats” (Howard Aiken)

Get in arguments.
Friendly arguments, of course. Having arguments helps you know exactly why you are submitting the line-up you chose for today.

Friends.
Make some. They make everything more fun.

4. Get better every day but DON’T play every day.

This is a little bonus. If you do the above three things you will start winning more consistently (even if bad luck does seep in every once in a while). Most importantly, your decision-making is getting better. That is what massively helps your chances of increasing your bankroll (in case that’s what you’re here for). Part of better decision-making is knowing when to play and when not to play.

Take a break once a week.
Relax. I’m not saying that you can’t play. I’m not saying to take a break from your daily journal entries. I’m just saying don’t enter any paid games ONCE a week. Why? The emotion of playing for money can often blur our decision-making. Once a week, play for free. This will allow you to detach monetary rewards from your line up selection process. If you win while making mistakes, you’re going to think that you can just keep playing the same way and win every time! Success in these free practice sessions will lead to better line-ups down the line. Try it out. If you can’t take off one day a week from putting skin in the game try once a month. If you can’t take a day off once a month, you need to be careful. You may be on a slippery slope (link to slippery slope post). Oh, and nights when there aren’t enough games for FanDuel to run do NOT count. Good try. Just to be clear, I still want you to prepare and play as if you were playing for money.

Pick your battles.
What’s harder? To play on a day where there are 3 games or 13 games? Sometimes, you just know that there are too many variables or there are not enough variables that luck is going to play too much of a factor in the equation. On these days, don’t’ play! Save your money for another day. Make this a practice session. If you want to win, you need to know when to pick your battles. There really is nothing wrong with retreating to fight another day. The great thing about FanDuel is that there will always be fish in the barrel.

2-day games?!
Do you know what you’re going to eat tomorrow night? Did you know that Dwyane Wade was going to have a mid-ankle sprain tomorrow morning at shoot-around? Only if you had a copy of Biff’s Sports Almanac should you be making line-ups for 2-day games… can’t you JUST WAIT one day?


Hope this helps.
Feel free to message me as I've written a lot of posts.
I much prefer how to teach a person to fish than to give them daily lineups.

-firebat620

[Laker_crazy]

good shit, i gotta keep rule 5 in mind not that i dont have patience but sometimes i forget what the hell is going on outside of the sport im capping. This really only happens during nba/mlb cause i dont do football but even if i did its once a week so its hard to be consumed by it. But the grind of basketball and baseball can really take away from the joys of life but hey everybody has a job to do, its no different than a ceo who works 70hrs a week. Bills have to paid.

I hear you buddy and it does happen,and if you are capping multiple sports then even more so for capping is a time consuming process be it done for yourself or for people,you would not bet/post the plays unless you are sure about them.The grind can take away the joy but there is always a day where in you will find just 1-2 games and that day you can probably take an off and go out and enjoy.

[Laker_crazy]

well said....like the part about patience.....everybody needs to chill some times

Agreed and even better over a couple of beers

[t-bone]

[Laker_crazy]

[Laker_crazy]

This thread can always be used by the 'Newbies' to ask any questions/doubts that they may have about betting and any experienced handicapper here would be pleased to assist,Cheers guys !

[OMGChoGath]

Well put about bankroll management. That alone is what turned me from a losing capper into a winning capper a few years ago.

[Laker_crazy]

Well put about bankroll management. That alone is what turned me from a losing capper into a winning capper a few years ago.

Thanks buddy,it is the most important aspect of any form of gambling IMHO..and the day bettors realize and get a grip on it,they will eventually win money in the long run..Glad that you learned your lesson and made the necessary changes and are now making money now. Good luck

[crizzlez11]

This is the thread i needed the most.
Im sure alot of inexperienced peeps on here will appreciate the read.

Cheers to LC and cremice for the wise words.

[mtofell]

Great information all around.... I love sports betting to keep my interest in the sports and to give me a reason to care about watching a given game. I don't really look at it as an investment but it's certainly nice to make a few bucks here and there. Certainly a better option than sitting at a blackjack table which is a sure loss over time (but for some reason I still do )

My biggest challenge is not getting stupid after a big win. Many times in gambling it turns out winning is the worst thing that happens to me. I throw away my winnings and then some.

Thanks again for the info and shared experience everyone.

[Laker_crazy]

This is the thread i needed the most.
Im sure alot of inexperienced peeps on here will appreciate the read.

Cheers to LC and cremice for the wise words.

Hopefully this will do you some good and provide all the help that you need.Good Luck buddy

[Kankerganker]

So easy to get carried away with betting, you sit down to analyze some data, look at some statistics and suddenly 5 hours gone by

[ShogunRua]

Good stuff LC!

[Laker_crazy]

Good stuff LC!

[Laker_crazy]

So easy to get carried away with betting, you sit down to analyze some data, look at some statistics and suddenly 5 hours gone by

Time is Money and Vice Versa !

[Potentate]

Great stuff in here. The rare appearance of positive and truly helpful words.

[MrXYZ]

Excellent advice LC. I've been doing this for years and not chasing losses is the hardest thing to stick to, especially if you have a competitive nature.

[greypimps]

just because a person has a good track record don't mean he gonna make you money.. I follow a few people here for about 20 games now and its been a losing record. The most important thing to betting is have some knowledge of the team and players. I went away from my methods and lost 6k this week. I chased my loss too and because of a mistake I made for helping a friend bet and I lost that bet because I put in the wrong bet for him and I try to win that bet by betting kings over on a Friday game and they went under so I end u slamming big bets and loss. Never chase your loss for sure. The third most important is " limit the number of games you play" I used to play 30 games a day, recently I play about 5 games a day, I was doing better til last week I must of played 100 games for the week betting anywhere from 100-500 a game.

[jimmy007oc]

Note to Newbie: Follow Laker_Crazy lol.
Thank LC for your effort.

[Laker_crazy]

Great stuff in here. The rare appearance of positive and truly helpful words.

Appreciate the Kind words buddy,I am glad that it is of some help to you and others around,at the end of the day,Winning should never be an option but an habit and we got to be patient to get there,Good Luck

[Laker_crazy]

Excellent advice LC. I've been doing this for years and not chasing losses is the hardest thing to stick to, especially if you have a competitive nature.

Thank you for the kind words,appreciate them..I hear you,It is certainly not easy and if you are competitive like you mentioned,it does become a tough pill to swallow at times,But you know something buddy,A lot of what i say has been given to me by Poker and one basic rule i can never forget,It takes a small amount of luck to make a bet,but a good amount of it i required if you call a bet,Discipline is a must..That is precisely why i never chased losses,and a clear case i ll point about my last night's picks..Even though i loved all 3 plays i posted,they lost,i had the under in the bucks game,the under in the lakers game and the Mavs TT Over..Now if i were to chase my bets,instead of being 6 units down i would have been 12,for both bucks and lakers game went quite over the set line.I am sure as long as you stick to the basics,you will win in the long run.Good Luck

[Laker_crazy]

Note to Newbie: Follow Laker_Crazy lol.
Thank LC for your effort.

Humbling words bro and thank you for the kind words but there are many more good cappers around and anyone can become one provided they are willing to put in the required amount of time and effort into it. Good luck

[Laker_crazy]

just because a person has a good track record don't mean he gonna make you money.. I follow a few people here for about 20 games now and its been a losing record. The most important thing to betting is have some knowledge of the team and players. I went away from my methods and lost 6k this week. I chased my loss too and because of a mistake I made for helping a friend bet and I lost that bet because I put in the wrong bet for him and I try to win that bet by betting kings over on a Friday game and they went under so I end u slamming big bets and loss. Never chase your loss for sure. The third most important is " limit the number of games you play" I used to play 30 games a day, recently I play about 5 games a day, I was doing better til last week I must of played 100 games for the week betting anywhere from 100-500 a game.

If you had your own methods and they have been making you money in the long run,then following cappers for about 20 odd games does not make any sense whatsoever,for you never know you might catch them on the wrong end of their luck and they might give you a few losing days and when they start evening out and making money,you would not be following them anymore for you quit after the first 20 odd games itself,my advice as i mentioned above was that if you following a particular capper,you follow them till the end..The only thing dissimilar should be the bankroll,rest you should finish on the same scale as a capper does win/lose. 30 games a day is a recipe for disaster and Yes i have learned it myself,there was a time i have made 10-12 plays also but the fact remains that you'd have to be really lucky to end up winning on such a high amount of plays because the bookmakers are no slouches when it comes to setting lines,it involves people who have been in the trade for long,are experienced,have knowledge,so even if you are a good capper,it is always a task beating the books,hence you always try and profit whatever you can in the long run. Hope this helped. Good Luck

[cremice]

no problem

[Laker_crazy]

no problem

Good

[chiefjones2013]

Thanks for the help i just started this season. Great help i am bookmarking this page