[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 2-2, +6.20u
(CLE, GS, CHA, LAC)
YTD 230-422, +51.88u
(since the ASB: 21-56, -12.83u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 344-296 (.538) +32.15u
(since the ASB: 36-39 (.480) -6.00u)

POWER RATING OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 84
2 DAL 73
3 UTH 67
4 CLE 63
5 CHI 61
6 MIA 57
7 PHX 56
8 SAC 55
9 LAX 54
10 TOR 54
11 SEA 53
12 MIL 53
13 ORL 52
14 DET 52
15 POR 50
16 BOS 50
17 LAC 49
18 NOK 49
19 PHI 47
20 DEN 47
21 NJ 44
22 NY 44
23 HOU 43
24 ATL 40
25 MEM 40
26 GS 39
27 WAS 39
28 CHA 37
29 IND 27
30 MIN 27


EDGAR LINES FOR 03.06.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

TOR 1.5/108 over WAS

NY 3.4/143 over SEA

LAX 2.0/129 over MIN

DAL 6.6/251 over NJ

DEN 3.8/156 over NOK

POR 1.9/120 over SAN

SAC 8.8/375 over IND

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

TOR +109, WAS +128

SEA +170, NY -120

LAX -109, MIN +154

NJ +312, DAL +206

NOK +186, DEN -131

SAN +142, POR -101

IND +493, SAC -296

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

TOR +202, WAS +242

SEA +346, NY +150

LAX +166, MIN +303

NJ +933, DAL -111

NOK +392, DEN +138

SAN +274, POR +180

IND +4336, SAC -151

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Tuesday.
GL


Sad to say, seems as if the method's just not equipped to deal with the kind of excellence that the Spurs have exhibited in the last couple of weeks.

No rational linemaker could possibly make them a dog at Portland, even though they are BxB on the road.

[onlooker]

Spurs really piss me off. Enough said.

[DrSlamm]

stop betting against them.. they never lose ATS

[austintx05]

Well at this point I am not so sure it is worth tracking anymore, but this is what I was doing.

Its basically following the money on spreads. Now what I would look for is for every book to move 1 point or more and hold it at that number. Now the problem I was running into was what is the real opener, LVSC or offshore?

For example....last nights game Charlotte @ utah

LVSC opened Utah -12.5
Offshore opened Utah -13.5

Line closed at 14. So based on the LVSC opener it was a 1.5 point move and it held at ervery book so it was a play on Utah. Based on the offshore number itwas a no play.

Another instance I have come across is on thw Detroit/GS game last night.

LVSC opened Detroit -11
Offshore opened -12

At SBR every book dropped from 12 to 11 and held til tipoff...so based on that it was a play on GS, but LVSC opened @ 11 so based on that ther line was returning to the opener.

I know its simple, and it was really hot for a while...I have been tracking it since post all star break and it has gone 32-26. The only problem that is idscouraging is I went over to Don best and tracked form Oct 31 - present based on the open and closing line and tracked the results...up to date it is a 51% profit...so maybe I just got excited and maybe I got a little lucky when I started to try it out....

Well thats it Jay...not sure if you have any experience about this method or maybe you feel it is a waste of time as well...

Let me know....

[hicetnunc11]

"Following the money" ?

I thought what you have to do it's precisely the opposite, to bet against the line movements.

I guess neither method really works.

[austintx05]

Jay - your mailbox was full so I could not send it, so I posted it here...

[Jay Edgar]

Sorry about that with the PMs.
It's cleared out now.

I'm not sure what line movement can tell us. I wouldn't presume to guess without a lot of research.

If I were going to research it (and I have no plans to), I would simply ignore Las Vegas. The limits are greater offshore, the lines go up first offshore, and (at least before January 11) anyone betting seriously from anywhere in the world was pretty much crazy to do it anywhere other than offshore. Las Vegas, with all due respect, was (is) for suckers.

One premise I would have, until proven otherwise, is that all line movement is not created equal. Early moves are worth much more respect than late moves. Moves in the first 2 hours at Pinny and CRIS and Greek are the moves that I would be most interested in testing. Once you get beyond that, line moves don't always equate to a statement of opinion by serious bettors. Could be some injury development, could be a reaction to a tout release, could simply be a lot of casual money moving the lines in a TV game.

I'd be surprised if the track record of all net line movement, in total, was substantially in the red or black long term. I wouldn't be so surprised if research that isolated meaningful early line movement showed that such moves were toward the winners something like 52-54% of the time.

Seems like there are 3 reasonable things to do about line movement.

(1) simply ignore it, and play what you like at the best available price

(2) go against it (particularly late movement), as you'll be getting the best of the number all the time

(3) spend a lot of time developing an intelligent approach to researching it, and then even much more time actually doing the research

[bigboydan]

Spurs really piss me off. Enough said.

They shot really bad last night, and still schooled the Clippers.

[Jay Edgar]

As tough a collection of beats in a single night as I can remember . . . ever.

GAP TEAM ATS ML
7 NY LOSS -114
11 LAX LOSS -100
14 NOK LOSS -100
16 TOR LOSS -100
16 SAC LOSS 100
18 NJ LOSS -100
29 POR WIN -100

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 1-6, -5.14u
(TOR, NY, LAX, NJ, NOK, POR, SAC)
YTD 231-427, +47.74u
(since the ASB: 22-62, -17.97u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 1-6, -5.30u
YTD 345-303 (.532) +26.85u
(since the ASB: 37-46 (.446) -11.30u)

[bigboydan]

that portland ML hurt bad Jay.