[pwangsta]

Hi everyone, this is pwangsta. I've been lurking these forums for several months now, but with the new NBA season just getting started, I decided it was time to contribute something to give back to the community. This past offseason I developed a new system to model NBA games based on individual player performance and estimated playing times, and so far this season (albeit with a small sample size) it has performed very well. I'll be tracking those system bets in this thread. Unfortunately, the data my system relies on has only recently started being available to the public (pace-adjusted and on/off stats), so it's impossible to backtest. In case I've actually found something profitable rather than fluky, though, I thought it would be nice to have some documentation for the future.

Plays for today will be posted shortly, once I run the numbers.

[pwangsta]

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
PHI	9	15.75	14.32
CHA	8	1.58	1.44
MEM	2.5	5.46	4.96
MIL	1	2.88	2.62
UTA	6	12.76	11.6
SAC	10.5	5.68	5.16
IND	-420	20.16	4.8
PHI	375	15	56.24
NOP	-345	6.09	1.77
MEM	125	8.56	10.7
MIL	103	7.47	7.69
UTA	240	13.37	32.08

SAS

-119

5.8

4.88

[hubbard689]

Are those dollar amounts?!?! Really hope the Bobcats cover so you can go buy a cheeseburger!!

[pwangsta]

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
PHI	9	15.75	14.32
CHA	8	1.58	1.44
MEM	2.5	5.46	4.96
MIL	1	2.88	2.62
UTA	6	12.76	11.6
SAC	10.5	5.68	5.16
IND	-420	20.16	4.8
PHI	375	15	56.24
NOP	-345	6.09	1.77
MEM	125	8.56	10.7
MIL	103	7.47	7.69
UTA	240	13.37	32.08

SAS

-119

5.8

4.88

YTD:
ATS: 1-5-0, bet 44.11, net -14.04, -31.8%
ML: 3-4, bet 76.45, net +27.61, +36.1%
Total: 4-9-0, bet 120.56, net +13.57, +11.3%

A decent start today. Disappointed in the win% obviously, but its a small sample size, and we did end up plus money. I'll take it.

[pwangsta]

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
BOS	9.5	14.98	13.62
WAS	13.5	7.9	7.18
PHX	12.5 13	5.3 2.7	4.82 2.45
LAL	1.5	2.45	2.23
BOS	425	5.93	25.2
WAS	1200	1.08	12.96
BKN	-270	9.21	3.41
NYK	-160	9.26	5.79
LAL	105	7.35	7.72

EDIT: Updated PHX ATS bet to account for news that Westbrook is supposedly playing tonight. Also, this makes the OKC ML playable, so adding the following play for about half a unit:

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
OKC	-1400	7.87	0.56

[pwangsta]

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
BOS	9.5	14.98	13.62
WAS	13.5	7.9	7.18
PHX	12.5 13	5.3 2.7	4.82 2.45
LAL	1.5	2.45	2.23
BOS	425	5.93	25.2
WAS	1200	1.08	12.96
BKN	-270	9.21	3.41
NYK	-160	9.26	5.79
LAL	105	7.35	7.72

EDIT: Updated PHX ATS bet to account for news that Westbrook is supposedly playing tonight. Also, this makes the OKC ML playable, so adding the following play for about half a unit:

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
OKC	-1400	7.87	0.56

Today:
ATS: 3-1-0, bet 28.03, net -3.12
ML: 2-4, bet 40.7, net -17.2
Overall 5-5-0, bet 68.73, net -20.32

YTD:
ATS: 4-6-0, bet 72.14, net -17.16, -23.8%
ML: 5-8, bet 161.26, net 10.41, +6.5%
Overall: 9-14-0, bet 233.4, net -6.75, -2.9%

[pwangsta]

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
MIN	1.5	4.11	3.74
PHI	7	8.61	7.83
BOS	12	6.01	5.46
MIN	103	8.04	8.28
PHI	240	2.05	4.92
LAC	-210	3.84	1.83

[pwangsta]

Team	Line	Bet	To Win
MIN	1.5	4.11	3.74
PHI	7	8.61	7.83
BOS	12	6.01	5.46
MIN	103	8.04	8.28
PHI	240	2.05	4.92
LAC	-210	3.84	1.83

Yesterday:
ATS: 2-1, bet 18.73, net 0.59
ML: 1-2, bet 13.93, net -8.26
Overall: 3-3, bet 32.66, net 7.67

YTD:
ATS: 6-7-0, bet 90.87, net -16.57, -18.2%
ML: 6-10, bet 175.19, net 2.15, +1.2%
Overall: 12-17-0, bet 266.06, net -14.42, -5.4%