[bgilic]

Can you post the spread you are using for your bets I am curious to see if I am using same spread as yours.

[Grinder12000]

I go to NBA Odds up on the upper right bar and look to see what would be the average people would get if they were getting off of work. today I had -3.5 but would have used -4 for the game as it would be the "after work" line many would get.

I don't like using the closing line as it is either GREAT or bad. So I use the line that is near 5:00 PM. If someone has an issue then I'll make it a loss. No one has issues with wins it seems LOL

[bgilic]

Time zones suck for me. Being in Australia I have to check the posts first thing in the morning for evening games and all afternoon games the bets have to be done before I go to bed.

[Grinder12000]

bgilic - I'm -6 GMT you must be like +9?? are you a day ahead of is? Hell, you should know who wins already LOL

[Grinder12000]

12/01/13 43W-34L +21.35

Results
42B O4 Washington 2.31 to win 2.1u
43A H3 Washington 1.1 to win 1.0u

Sunday
41B H3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10u**
44A O4 Sac fade G.S. 1.10 to win 1.00u**
45A O4 LAClippers fade Ind 1.10 to win 1.00u

** best way to play it Bet 1.21 to win 1.1u on Sacramento

Mondays known games46A H3 Chicago

[bgilic]

bgilic - I'm -6 GMT you must be like +9?? are you a day ahead of is? Hell, you should know who wins already LOL

I am +10 GMT so I do feel a little back to the future

Nice way for Washington to kill 2 series with one win today. How many systems are you playing outside of this and the hockey one?

[reddevils64]

Time zones suck for me. Being in Australia I have to check the posts first thing in the morning for evening games and all afternoon games the bets have to be done before I go to bed.

I'M in Melb Australia and find 90% of games I can bet on before I go to work in morning. Eg. If Denver was a play today than I would have to set my alarm approx. 30min before game start so I could place my bets.

[Grinder12000]

Checking in.

300 miles down, 325 to go today. Good weather. Cloudy. Dallas to St. Louis. Day 2 tomorrow. Can't wait to get home and get normal again.

guess I missed the Indiana game in. BooBoo

[bgilic]

Have safe trip Grinder

[Grinder12000]

12/02/13 45W-35L +23.35

Results
41B H3 Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10u** +4.5
44A O4 Sac fade G.S. 1.10 to win 1.00u** -4.5
45A O4 LAClippers fade Ind 1.10 to win 1.00u -1.5

Monday games - unless Port/LAL or N.O/NYK go into OT

46A H3 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00u

Known Tuesday games

44B O4 Sac Fade Oklahoma City

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Grinder, not to be a PITA but could you put the color of the previous' day W/L in different colors than green/red. I'm color blind tinted in those 2 colors and I can't tell if it's a win or loss. Or put an icon or something next to it. Tank.....youverymuch!

Or BOLD a winner and ITALICS the loser.

[miczz14]

are we gonna play NO fade?

[Grinder12000]

QQ@@@@@

[bgilic]

NO-Chi, AKA longest game EVER

[Grinder12000]

12/03/13 45W-36L +22.25

Results
Lose 46A H3 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00u -6.5
** I was ready to mark that a loss a half hour ago - the game never ended LOL

Tuesday (for Americans :-)

44B O4 Sac Fade Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.1o

Wednesday Known Games

48A H3 Atlanta
49A H3 N.O.

[bgilic]

You silly Americans, always living in the past. Look towards the future like us Aussies.

[KC Needs Hockey]

You silly Americans, always living in the past. Look towards the future like us Aussies.

If we don't keep looking in the past we will see an ugly reality that we are no longer a world superpower like we like to think. Saw a survey the other day that made me laugh USA is now ranked 32nd in the world in internet speeds. How in the world are we 32nd when we invented the damn thing. O well don't want to turn this into a political or nationality debate heres to OKC winning!

[Grinder12000]

12/03/13 45W-37L +19.94

Results
44B O4 Sac Fade Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.1o LOST

Wednesday

48A H3 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00u
49A H3 N.O. 1.10 to win 1.00u

Thursday known games

46B H3 Chicago
47A O4 Chicago

Friday - MANY games!!

NOTE - I have taken Milwaukee and Houston off the O4 rosters due to poor performance.

[bgilic]

Have we back tested this system going back any number of years? I am just curious if there was any historical data to see.

So how do you approach 46B and 47A both Chicago bets? Just bet 1.10+2.20=3.30 unit bet?

[Grinder12000]

No REAL backtesting on this thing so unlike Wallco there is no history - all theory. Plus unlike most systems this has a small amount of handicapping involved and I reserve the right to make game time decisions and tweak as we go. I don't want to be stuck on a rule and then NEED to play games which a monkey would see would lose. example - playing Milwaukee to win.

Basically you are following my lead on this and trusting me :-)

I make no claims that this will actually work and I had three goals.
Don't lose a lot of money
Win 20 units
Win 100 units.

[and24]

So where is the latest status of your system's p/l?

[Grinder12000]

????.."...........@@@@@@

[Grinder12000]

"P/l". What. Puck line? Lol.

profit loss +19.94. To be honest I'm not super happy but were keeping out head above water.

[Grinder12000]

It really depends on what you call back testing bgilic. I've gone back 12 years looking at all the series. The Streak series as a whole, taking all teams is a winning theory, but not much. So I've use certain teams that over the years are better then other teams.

the Home series do not have enough hits to get a real idea but in real time last year it was a winner.

the OT series I did as the streak and took teams that were very good in the last 10 years.

that is why I warn people not to bet the house. I guarantee nothing except I put $ on every game.

[Grinder12000]

*********************

[bgilic]

Are we doing 4 game or 3 game chase on O series?

[Grinder12000]

All 4 game chases. Worst case is a little over 10 units on the "D" game.

[Numbersneverlie]

Why are we betting on Chicago? They played a triple OT game two nights ago. Aren't they a fade?

[Grinder12000]

Numbersneverlie - I'm looking at my spreadsheets and wondering that myself - I took them off BOTH O4 systems and am recalculating.

Looking at my algorithm - the rest of the teams don't have the number I'm looking for.

I have extra units on Chicago tonight - I might just reverse those units and take a juice loss to make myself feel comfortable.

That Overtime system is not THAT wonderful overtime. Last year taking ALL teams it lost 49 units! Not sure where Stiffler got his numbers for that one.

O4 Overtime
Play	Fade
Boston 48-0	Toronto 56-1
NYKnicks 54-1	Miami 57-0
Brooklyn 49-1	Atl 56-0
Phoenix 39-0	LAClippers 44-0
Dallas 45-0	Sac 52-0
N.O. 49-1
Portland 55-1

[Grinder12000]

UPDATE
12/05/13 46W-38L +19.84

Results
48A H3 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00u WIN
49A H3 N.O. 1.10 to win 1.00u LOSE

Thursday

46B H3 Chicago 2.31 to win 2.1

Friday's known games

44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u

numbersneverlie noticed an error in the OT games and I recalculated that system and removed Chicago and a few other teams. That system is not THAT wonderful when looking at the league as a whole.


I'll repeat this yet again - this is a work in progress - I guarantee nothing except I will not lose a LOT of cash because if this crash's I wont continue it. But I do have my $$ on every game and over my lifetime I have done well.

Find a system, ride it up and when it starts to crash jump off! The upside is always higher then the downside if you know when to jump.

[Numbersneverlie]

Ok sounds good. Thanks for update. I noticed that and just wanted to make you aware. Keep up great work

[bgilic]

I still think that this system has potential with minor tweaks.

[Grinder12000]

bgilic - all ears

On that note I've been going over some H3 data and I would like to add a couple fades coming up - what do you guys think. I'm going to so should I include them here?

I'm fading Orlando in a 4 game chase starting tomorrow and fading Dallas in a THREE game chase starting Saturday.

Lats year H3 in ALL teams was 148 - 5.5 for ABOUT +50 units! But the losses main losses were in the Fades. I have not been playing the FADES this year but might start to dip my toes in. Anyone want to come along?

and BTW - bgilic - what if there is a sports wagerer who is gay. think he would appreciate your Avatar?

[Grinder12000]

12/06/13 47W-38L +23.04* added 1.10u as I only gave *1.0u to a B win on 32B

Results
46B H3 Chicago 2.31 to win 2.1 - WIN +4

Friday

44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u
51A H3 Orlando FADE - NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00u
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u **

** I've been playing with handicapping (using my brain) chases for a while now. No "system" but looking at schedules so forth. 53A Portland was one that I had circled as a Handicapping chase but it's already a chase so . . . .

I think I MIGHT post some of my personal chases as a G1 chase at some point.

H
A 7-5
B 4-0

OT
A 14-12
B 5-7
C 3-3
D 2-1

S
4-7
B 5-2
C 2-0

[miczz14]

Records

H3 (was S3)
A 6-3
B 3-0

O4 (was S4)
A 13-10
B 4-6
C 3-3
D 2-1*

S1
A 3-7
B 5-2
C 2-0

* because I finally found OT stats - if we played with the new data we would not have lost that "D" bet and chase-wise would be 17-0 as opposed to 22-1 I don't have that broken down into A,B C yet (I'm on an archaic computer until Tuesday).

fun with numbers

we are averaging 0.71 units per day.
there are 138 days left in the season which is 98.67 units. IF (BIG IF) we keep this pace that would be 120.12 units.

an update of this stats would be nice