[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 2-7, -5.00u
(CHA, MIN, NY, MIL, DEN, ATL, BOS, MEM, LAC)
YTD 211-372, +60.76u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 4-5, -1.25u
YTD 312-262 (.544) +36.90u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 CLE 71
2 DAL 66
3 SAN 66
4 UTH 64
5 DET 61
6 TOR 60
7 HOU 60
8 MIA 59
9 NOK 54
10 SEA 53
11 NY 53
12 LAX 53
13 CHI 52
14 POR 51
15 ORL 51
16 DEN 49
17 SAC 48
18 MIN 47
19 CHA 46
20 GS 45
21 MEM 44
22 IND 43
23 ATL 43
24 PHX 42
25 NJ 41
26 BOS 39
27 WAS 37
28 PHI 37
29 MIL 35
30 LAC 32


Take Wednesday’s BOS-PHX line with a bucket of salt. Celts should come in over 30+ off, just like the Clippers tonight. It will take at least couple more games for the ratings to reflect Nash’s impact again.

EDGAR LINES FOR 02.21.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

ATL 1.7/116 over SAN

TOR 3.7/151 over CLE

PHI 1.6/114 over NY

IND 7.8/317 over MIL

DET 6.8/258 over ORL

NJ 1.8/117 over NOK

MIN 6.6/250 over CHA

PHX 3.5/144 over BOS

HOU 4.6/169 over MIA

GS 6.5/245 over MEM

LAX 4.0/160 over POR

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

SAN +137, ATL +102

CLE +180, TOR -127

NY +135, PHI +104

MIL +407, IND -255

ORL +321, DET -211

NOK +138, NJ +101

CHA +311, MIN -205

BOS +172, PHX -121

MIA +203, HOU -141

MEM 304, GS -202

POR +192, LAX -135

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

SAN +263, ATL +187

CLE +375, TOR +142

NY +258, PHI +190

MIL +1845, IND -134

ORL +994, DET -114

NOK +266, NJ +185

CHA +927, MIN -111

BOS +351, PHX +148

MIA +443, HOU +127

MEM +885, GS -109

POR +410, LAX +134

[bigboydan]

I'll just look for your final numbers in the AM Jay.

[Jay Edgar]

Got them done tonight.

GL

[onlooker]

Hey Jay.

Records are wrong, you got them adding up to 8 games played, when there was 9. Should be 2-7 and 4-5.

I hope its a better day tomorrow.

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks OL.

The miserable, 33%-off Clippers didn't register on my first cut-and-paste.

Fixed now.

[bigboydan]

You did end up getting them done last night I see Jay. I see we have another interesting match up with the Suns/Celtics tonight.

[Jay Edgar]

Yeah, I do think the Celtics may turn a net profit over the rest of the season due to the dismal public expectations for them -- but to say with any confidence that it starts tonight would be foolish. Tread carefully, obviously.

(Of course, even if you changed PHX's power rating to something like their season high, you'd get a strike price for the Celtics of something in the +350-400 range. By the method you're pretty much going to take a +900 dog every time.)

[The HG]

Regarding Boston, I'll just add, and most of us are probably already aware of this, they are by a decent margin the best ATS road team of the year in the NBA. I have them at 18-7 ATS on the road to date. Considering that they are better with Pierce in the lineup now, there should be value with them on the road for the rest of the year. Not necessarily tonight, though.

[Jay Edgar]

Does anyone happen to know the Celts first half ATS road record?

That's two nights in a row they teased their 1st half bettors then pulled the rug out.

[bigboydan]

Boston scared the hell out of me again tonight, but at least they cashed

I swear the Celtics give me more heart attacks than Fred Sanford had over Sanford and Sons 5 year run on network TV

[onlooker]

If the Suns didnt only shoot 3's in that forth, the Celtics probably could of won that game.

Just happy those guys cashed the +13.

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
6 CHA WIN 320
7 HOU WIN 100
24 POR WIN 560
30 ATL WIN -100
31 BOS WIN -100


MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Wednesday, 3-2, +7.80u
(ATL, CHA, BOS, HOU, POR)
YTD 214-374, +68.56u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 5-0. +5.00u
YTD 317-262 (.548) +41.90u

[DrSlamm]

hard to complain about today.. except i missed the boston bet but had cavs instead.. also should have had memphis as it was a play until it steamed which i missed also

[The HG]

Does anyone happen to know the Celts first half ATS road record?

That's two nights in a row they teased their 1st half bettors then pulled the rug out.

Boston's 1H ATS road record, as of Feb 25th, is actually 9-18(!), including 3-10 in Jan/Feb.

Overall, ATS, on the road, they are 19-9, and 17-10 2H.

This is not at all a surprising pattern for a bad NBA team to follow, for somewhat obvious reasons.