The Hawks have been hot offensively, but that should change here after a cross-country flight vs; a Lakers team that is improved defensively with the addition of Ron Artest. Go Under.
With no NFL Sunday night game due to the World Series, look for the NBA card on tonight’s board to get some action around the globe. Ending off the evening will be the LA Lakers hosting the Atlanta Hawks with the total currently sitting at 194. Look for this to go Under as the big scoring that the Hawks have started their season with slows down in LA against the Lakers defense.
Atlanta has started their NBA season an impressive 2-0 notching home wins against the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards, scoring 120 and 100 points in each game respectively. But Indiana has played some of the worst defense in the league so far this year and the Wizards came into Atlanta due for a letdown after surprisingly opening the season with a victory in Dallas against the Mavericks.
It will be a bigger test for the Hawks to see if they can travel across the country on one day of rest and face the defending NBA champions in LA.
Although it is offense that won both of their games for them this season, the Hawks have even shown some solid defense at times in their two victories. Al Hoford had five blocked shots against the Wizards on Friday and the team forced 25 turnovers by the Pacers on opening night. Atlanta will have to come up with this same defensive effort to stay in the game tonight in LA as they likely will not have as much success finding the hoop as in their first two games.
The Lakers have started out the season 1-1 with a win on opening night against the LA Clippers 99-92 and following it up with a loss to the Dallas Mavericks 94-80. Missing the presence of Pau Gasol has already started to hurt the Lakers, as well as those backing them at the betting windows. Off their first loss, I am expecting the Lakers to really be hustling hard on the court tonight which is another factor that should make this go under.
Even with a less impressive start to the season than the Hawks, one thing for sure is that the Lakers have played some decent defense in their two games this season. Adding Ron Artest to the lineup this year will sure to pay dividends making opponents struggle with scoring.
As an example of this, Baron Davis of the Clippers and Jason Kidd of the Mavericks were each held to only one bucket in the Staples Center. The Lakers were even outrebounded by the Clippers 51-47 on opening night, but forcing 20 turnovers and allowing only 3 for 15 shooting from three point land got the Lakers a win that night.
With the Lakers currently 6½-point favorites against the Hawks, they will likely get the majority of the betting action tonight. Many times a popular team like the Lakers will have the “cannot possibly lose two in a row” factor going for them which is enough to get wagers even against an undefeated team like the Hawks.
For that reason, I feel the line could be a bit inflated upward tonight and I also feel taking the Hawks to cover has its own uncertainty with the kind of spot they are in here. Since backing either side here had doubts for me, the total was where I looked for some value and feel I have found it with the under.
Bookmaker opened the total for this matchup yesterday at 195 and it only took a couple of hours for the number to drop a point. Some books have even lowered it to 193 ½ at press time but there is always the chance of over action coming in closer to tip time driving it up again so it might be best to wait a bit.
Remember that this is the last game on the board tonight with no football so it provides the last chance for many gamblers out there to chase before settle-up day. We could see quite a few Lakers-Over parlays coming in to help bailout those in the hole, as well as some straight action on the over since it’s really the easiest “gun to your head” bet in times of desperation.
You can always hope for late fouling or overtime as an over bettor, but rather than hope for the best I would look forward to a tight game most of the way tonight and cashing an under ticket.
Other NBA action on Sunday night’s board
Five more matchups occur on Sunday night with each involving an undefeated team and some are worth a look to build your bankroll leading up to the Hawks-Lakers game.
The evening starts out with two 6pm ET Tips featuring the Boston Celtics at home against the New Orleans Hornets and the Miami Heat hosting the Chicago Bulls. The Celtics are tough to go against as heavy chalk but they have not faced anyone like Chris Paul yet this season so you never know what could happen concerning the margin of victory.
I would back the over 183½ here as the Hornets have underachieved a bit with scoring so far this season and should be able to put up more than the 90 and 59 that the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Bobcats, respectively, did in Boston this week.
The Heat have been off to a big start this season with 96-83 and 115-93 victories against the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks, respectively. It should be a tougher challenge for them tonight against the visiting Bulls as we could see some lower scoring than before with the way Chicago has been hustling on the court.
Off a terrible game in Boston which was a bad spot for the Bulls after a big win over the San Antonio Spurs at home the night before, I see them getting back on track in Miami tonight. The line favors the Heat by 4 ½ but could be a point or two inflated upward not taking into account the subpar competition faced by Miami so far and that you can disregard Friday’s game by the Bulls. Take the points with the Bulls as a straight up win would not be a shocker here.
At 7pm ET, the Portland Trail-Blazers visit the unbeaten Oklahoma City Thunder and are favored by a two point bucket on the road. With the kind of home-road disparity Portland could have this season, I would not want to lay points with them here. They started their first road trip of the season in Houston last night with a loss as a road favorite when they had beaten the Rockets at home just several nights before.
Before that, the Blazers also had a disappointing loss at home to the Denver Nuggets in what was a very favorable spot to get a win. Although no bettor is likely to have confidence that the Oklahoma City Thunder will keep their undefeated record for long this season, they would have to get my lean as a home dog here as you could make a case of even favoring them by a point or two in a spot like this.
Rounding out Sunday night’s card is a pair of 8pm ET tips with some double digit home favorites and high totals in both as the Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies along with the Minnesota Timberwolves visiting the Phoenix Suns. Denver is not a place any NBA team would want to visit for their first road game as they have to not only oppose a very talented Nuggets team but also deal with adjusting to the high altitude.
The total has already gone up a point from 205 to 206, and I agree with the early movement in backing the over here rather than take a chance with either side. Laying 11 points with the Nuggets could be risky in a game they will not be as up for as their first two and likewise taking any number with the Grizzlies here has the makings of an avalanche. Look for some big scoring back and forth and for the game to go over with half of the 4th quarter still left.
While Phoenix has not faced the best of competition this season, they get another break on Sunday with Minnesota who comes into town being a double digit underdog for the second straight game. I am hesitant to back either side here as the line could just be a bit too high for the Suns to cover, but also not high enough for the Timberwolves considering it is their first road game. The total at 217 is what looks to have the value and I would take the under.
Although Suns games can have totals that fly off the chart, both teams have to do their part making it happen and I cannot see this with Minnesota. The Timberwolves have only shot 39% from the field this season making them one of the poorest shooting teams and they could struggle getting their share of the points even against Phoenix’s defense.
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-10-15 at 02:52 PM.
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Hmm. I likes it. Lakers are a more defensive team this year. Minus Gasol at that and Atlanta is a high scoring team at home and they always play good defense in my point. If you play defense, they will play defense with you too. If you run, they will run with you too. I also like Boston and New Orleans under the total.. On the road they are abysmal. I likes the play..
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Lakers-Hawks to stay under 194 and a look at 5 other Sunday night NBA games
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