As of Friday, 60% of the 1230 NBA regular season games have been played.
The 5%-off method has had action in almost three quarters of the games played, (544 out of 747 -- 73%).
First, the updated overall numbers for the year.
ALL GAMES 5% OFF OR MORE
MONEYLINE PLAYS
202-342, +79.61u
POINTSPREAD PLAYS
296-240 (.552) +44.00u
The pattern of diminishing effectiveness beyond 20% off is well established
(Unit =100)
MONEYLINE PLAYS
MAIN GROUPINGS
5-19% 172-264 +7040
20%+ 30-78 +621
SUBGROUPINGS
5-7% 46-55 +2202
8-10% 48-63 +3001
11-13% 33-59 +865
14-16% 27-52 -322
17-19% 18-35 +1294
20-22% 12-30 +339
23-25% 9-15 +1600
26-29% 3-19 -1370
30-34% 5-8 +487
35%+ 1-6 -435
POINTSPREAD PLAYS
MAIN GROUPINGS
5-19% 250-181 (.580) +6100
20%+ 46-60 (.434) -1700
SUBGROUPINGS
5-7% 61-39 (.610) +2005
8-10% 66-44 (.600) +1980
11-13% 53-39 (.576) +1205
14-16% 44-32 (.579) +1040
17-19% 26-27 (.491) -130
20-22% 16-26 (.381) -1130
23-25% 10-13 (.435) -365
26-29% 7-14 (.333) -770
30-34% 8-5 (.615) +275
35%+ 5-2 (.714) +290
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NEXT, PERFORMANCE BY HALF-MONTH
While there’s some legitimate worry that lines are tightening, and that teams are tanking or getting ready to tank, so therefore the good run is close to over – there really is no sign of that in the performance numbers.
KEY:
Nov I (10.31 to 11.14)
Nov II (11.15 to 11.30)
Dec I (12.01 to 12.14)
Dec II (12.15 to 12.27)*
Jan I (01.01 to 01.15)
Jan II (01.16 to 01.31)
Feb I (02.01 to 02.09)
*I was away Dec 28-31 and did not track the games.
MONEYLINE PLAYS
Nov I 26-40 +985
Nov II 35-51 +1619
Dec I 25-61 -615
Dec II 32-43 +1781
Jan I 28-52 +264
Jan II 36-65 +2278
Feb I 20-30 +1349
POINTSPREAD PLAYS
Nov I 36-30 (.545) +450
Nov II 49-37 (.570) +1015
Dec I 40-45 (.471) -725
Dec II 42-31 (575) +945
Jan I 43-35 (.551) +625
Jan II 60-39 (.606) +1905
Feb I 26-24 (.520) +185
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One thing I was curious about is how the 20%-off plays fared during these time periods. I just separated these by month rather than by 'fortnight' because there are so few of them -- 20%+ plays make up less than one-fifth of the total overall plays.
Still very small sample sizes, but the 20%+ off plays have done better in recent weeks.
20%+ ONLY
MONEYLINE PLAYS
Nov 4-15 -603
Dec 9-21 +420
Jan 13-37 -52
Feb 4-5 +856
POINTSPREAD PLAYS
Nov 6-13 (.316) -765
Dec 11-18 (.379) -790
Jan 23-26 (.469) -430
Feb 6-3 (.667) +285
If anyone would like to see any other specific piece of info from the record for the first 60% of the year, just let me know.