[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Thursday 0-0
YTD 182-312, +63.12u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Thursday 0-0
YTD 270-217 (.554), +42.15u

POWER RANKINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 PHX 63
2 HOU 63
3 DAL 62
4 DET 62
5 CHI 58
6 MIA 56
7 IND 56
8 LAC 55
9 WAS 54
10 UTH 54
11 NJ 54
12 SAN 52
13 NOK 51
14 SAC 50
15 CHA 49
16 TOR 49
17 NY 49
18 MIN 49
19 DEN 47
20 PHI 47
21 POR 47
22 LAX 47
23 CLE 46
24 ATL 46
25 MEM 44
26 SEA 42
27 GS 42
28 ORL 42
29 MIL 33
30 BOS 33


EDGAR LINES FOR 02.02.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

ORL 1.5/112 over NJ

IND 5.6/196 over LAX

PHI 3.9/160 over GS

LAC 2.5/139 over BOS

CLE 3.5/145 over CHA

ATL 1.8/118 over TOR

DET 7.5/305 over MIL

NOK 3.8/156 over MIN

DEN 5.2/182 over POR

SEA 1.8/117 over CHI


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

NJ +132, ORL +106

LAX +238, IND -163

GS +192, PHI -134

LAC -117, BOS +166

CHA +173, CLE -122

TOR +139, ATL +101

MIL +388, DET -246

MIN +186, NOK -131

POR +220, DEN -152

CHI +138, SEA +101

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

NJ +252, ORL +194

LAX +567, IND +111

GS +408, PHI +134

LAC +154, BOS +355

CHA +355, CLE +147

TOR +268, ATL +184

MIL +1603, DET -130

MIN +392, NOK +138

POR +499, DEN +119

CHI +266, SEA +185

[onlooker]

Ok, now its time to get February started in here.

[bigboydan]

Lets get this month off to a strong start Jay

[Jay Edgar]

Well at the moment we're supposed to be playing every game on the board.



So it may be a busy month, even though it's a short one.

[DrSlamm]

jay so for example tonight the bucks are at around +715 would you still consider this a good play or is there some sort of injury information that isnt factored in?

sorry if these are stupid questions but i just started reading your threads.

Slamma

[Jay Edgar]

DS no problem.

If the personnel tonight is different from that in recent games, that won't be reflected in the rating. The rating reflects performance over the last ten games and the scheduling situation (home/road, amount of rest) for tonight. If I tried to quantify for a new injury I'd just be making sh*t up.

I would say, though, that the bookmaker's line not only compensates but overcompensates for injury most of the time IMO. In the long run if you play the "injured" team you are going to get the best of it.

To more directly answer your question about the Bucks: the rating is a pretty accurate reflection of their play without Redd. They're awful, and I myself passed on them in Orlando even thought the system said play them (I only do that once in a while these days). But they are probably decent value at +715 as even the god-awful teams get one every once in a while -- enough to turn a modest profit, or so it seems.

[onlooker]

Two games tonight straddle the 5% strike price. 76ers and Hawks. Some places they could be a play, and others they wouldnt.

[Jay Edgar]

Two games tonight straddle the 5% strike price. 76ers and Hawks. Some places they could be a play, and others they wouldnt.

Yup.
And we track them based on where they close (because that's the only manageable way to do it.) But if the system truly gives you an edge then obviously it makes sense to play these teams at the best possible price you can get.

(I have some Hawks at +117 and some Sixers at -120).

[Jay Edgar]

GAP TEAM ATS ML
5 PHI LOSS -134
8 NOK WIN 100
8 NJ LOSS -100
9 IND WIN 100
9 SEA LOSS -100
13 BOS LOSS -100
13 MIL WIN -100
16 CHA LOSS -100
19 POR WIN -100

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Friday, 2-7, -5.34u
(NJ, IND, PHI, BOS, CHA, MIL, NOK, POR, SEA)
YTD 184-319, +57.78u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Friday, 4-5, -1.25u
YTD 274-222 (.552), +40.90u