Jay Edgar NBA, Report on First Half of Regular Season
Fifth in the series of reports on the results of the blind plays based on the daily Edgar Line:
Overall trends are unchanged.
When the Edgar Line is off by 5-10% from the midpoint of the closing ML (still using Pinny), plays on the indicated team are VERY strong.
When the Edgar Line is off by 11-20% from the midpoint of the closing ML, the same plays are profitable, though not as strongly so.
When the Edgar Line is off by 21% or more from the midpoint of the closing ML, the same plays are a net loser. Of course this is the range where you are often up against the big 3 -- DAL, PHX, SAN -- and they have very thoroughly and professionally taken care of business so far this year.
Here are the indicated plays for the entire year so far (using $100 units):
1-Nov 6 POR WIN 360
1-Nov 13 MEM LOSS -213
1-Nov 16 SAC LOSS -100
1-Nov 16 UTH WIN 101
1-Nov 22 LAX WIN 265
1-Nov 5 ORL WIN 101
1-Nov 5 NO WIN 142
3-Nov 6 UTH WIN 248
3-Nov 8 PHI WIN 193
3-Nov 5 ATL WIN 100
3-Nov 13 POR LOSS -100
3-Nov 12 MEM WIN 100
4-Nov 7 BOS WIN -100
4-Nov 8 POR WIN 148
4-Nov 13 NY LOSS -100
4-Nov 11 MEM LOSS -100
4-Nov 11 CHA WIN 165
5-Nov 5 LAX LOSS -100
5-Nov 17 TOR LOSS -100
5-Nov 13 ATL WIN 140
5-Nov 15 PHI WIN 124
5-Nov 6 NO WIN 100
6-Nov 6 DET WIN -100
6-Nov 16 NY LOSS -100
6-Nov 11 POR LOSS -100
6-Nov 11 GS WIN 420
6-Nov 6 MIL LOSS -100
7-Nov 9 SEA WIN -100
7-Nov 11 MIN WIN -100
7-Nov 8 PHI LOSS -100
7-Nov 23 MEM LOSS -100
7-Nov 10 ATL WIN 505
8-Nov 5 IND LOSS -100
8-Nov 14 SEA WIN -100
8-Nov 15 POR WIN 179
8-Nov 8 NY WIN 510
8-Nov 8 LAC WIN 100
8-Nov 7 CHA WIN -100
10-Nov 8 BOS LOSS -100
10-Nov 7 POR WIN 126
10-Nov 6 NJ LOSS -172
10-Nov 12 DET WIN 200
10-Nov 5 ORL LOSS -100
10-Nov 12 NY WIN -100
10-Nov 7 PHI LOSS -130
11-Nov 8 MIL LOSS -107
11-Nov 15 NY WIN -100
11-Nov 24 MEM WIN -100
11-Nov 5 ORL WIN 187
11-Nov 6 DET LOSS -100
11-Nov 13 BOS WIN -100
11-Nov 5 IND LOSS -100
12-Nov 5 NJ WIN 199
12-Nov 6 TOR LOSS -100
12-Nov 17 MEM LOSS -100
12-Nov 21 CHA LOSS -100
12-Nov 27 POR LOSS -100
13-Nov 5 BOS LOSS -108
13-Nov 25 NY LOSS -100
14-Nov 8 HOU LOSS -118
14-Nov 6 CHA LOSS -100
14-Nov 19 POR LOSS -100
14-Nov 12 ATL WIN 100
14-Nov 14 UTH WIN 105
14-Nov 7 CHI LOSS -100
15-Nov 14 NY WIN 138
15-Nov 9 CHA WIN 815
15-Nov 11 MEM WIN -100
15-Nov 8 BOS WIN 105
15-Nov 10 NOK WIN 325
15-Nov 16 POR LOSS -100
17-Nov 11 UTH WIN 173
17-Nov 10 CHI LOSS -100
17-Nov 9 PHI LOSS -100
17-Nov 22 NY WIN 360
17-Nov 13 TOR WIN -100
17-Nov 8 NJ WIN 178
17-Nov 6 WAS LOSS -100
17-Nov 23 MEM LOSS -100
17-Nov 7 MIN LOSS -100
17-Nov 14 POR LOSS -100
18-Nov 5 UTH LOSS 100
18-Nov 6 CHA LOSS -100
18-Nov 8 POR WIN 370
18-Nov 8 NOK WIN 129
18-Nov 20 ATL LOSS -148
18-Nov 8 PHI WIN -100
18-Nov 14 MIL LOSS -175
18-Nov 10 SEA LOSS -100
18-Nov 5 HOU LOSS -100
18-Nov 9 TOR WIN -100
18-Nov 18 MEM WIN -100
18-Nov 10 NY LOSS -115
19-Nov 20 SAC LOSS -100
20-Nov 8 TOR WIN -100
20-Nov 28 POR LOSS -100
20-Nov 29 GS WIN -100
20-Nov 16 MEM WIN 144
20-Nov 5 SEA WIN 100
20-Nov 22 NY LOSS -100
20-Nov 15 CHA LOSS -100
21-Nov 7 NOK WIN 100
21-Nov 18 PHI LOSS -100
21-Nov 15 MEM WIN -100
21-Nov 6 DEN WIN 100
22-Nov 7 UTH WIN 173
22-Nov 13 NOK LOSS -100
22-Nov 25 POR WIN 160
22-Nov 13 NY LOSS -100
22-Nov 8 SEA WIN 220
22-Nov 5 ATL WIN -100
22-Nov 12 GS LOSS -185
22-Nov 17 TOR WIN 116
24-Nov 18 MEM WIN 122
24-Nov 11 SAC WIN 240
24-Nov 5 DAL WIN 193
24-Nov 5 MIN WIN 178
24-Nov 10 CHA LOSS -100
24-Nov 5 IND WIN 100
24-Nov 9 PHI WIN 107
25-Nov 14 GS WIN 107
25-Nov 8 POR LOSS -100
25-Nov 8 ATL LOSS -100
25-Nov 13 CHA LOSS -145
25-Nov 14 MIN WIN 127
25-Nov 17 MEM WIN -100
25-Nov 9 NOK LOSS -100
25-Nov 7 PHI LOSS -100
25-Nov 25 NY LOSS -100
26-Nov 21 SEA LOSS -100
26-Nov 22 POR LOSS -100
26-Nov 6 DEN WIN -100
26-Nov 10 TOR WIN 100
28-Nov 11 ATL WIN -100
28-Nov 8 TOR WIN 165
28-Nov 11 CHA WIN 270
28-Nov 9 POR LOSS -100
28-Nov 13 MIN WIN -100
28-Nov 14 MEM WIN 400
28-Nov 14 NY LOSS -100
29-Nov 14 UTH WIN 110
29-Nov 18 HOU LOSS -100
29-Nov 12 BOS LOSS -136
29-Nov 12 MEM LOSS -100
29-Nov 25 TOR LOSS -100
29-Nov 14 NY WIN 490
29-Nov 6 ATL WIN 100
30-Nov 14 MIA WIN -100
1-Dec 11 CHA LOSS -100
1-Dec 6 IND WIN -100
1-Dec 12 MIL WIN -100
1-Dec 9 POR WIN -100
1-Dec 9 NY WIN -100
1-Dec 9 MIN LOSS -116
1-Dec 10 SAC LOSS -100
1-Dec 23 ATL LOSS -100
1-Dec 14 NOK LOSS -100
1-Dec 6 TOR WIN 100
4-Dec 11 MIL LOSS -100
4-Dec 13 GS LOSS -100
4-Dec 9 IND LOSS -100
4-Dec 8 WAS WIN 152
4-Dec 9 BOS LOSS -100
5-Dec 15 SAC LOSS -100
5-Dec 8 MIA WIN -100
5-Dec 23 POR WIN 550
5-Dec 8 NJ LOSS -100
6-Dec 12 NY LOSS -100
6-Dec 30 CHA LOSS -100
6-Dec 7 NOK WIN 375
6-Dec 9 MIN WIN 100
6-Dec 5 ATL WIN 580
6-Dec 22 TOR WIN -100
6-Dec 12 PHI LOSS -100
7-Dec 5 MIA WIN 190
7-Dec 6 NJ WIN -100
7-Dec 6 DET WIN 255
8-Dec 11 PHI LOSS -100
8-Dec 14 MIN WIN 102
8-Dec 9 LAC LOSS -100
8-Dec 14 BOS LOSS -100
8-Dec 6 MEM LOSS -100
8-Dec 11 ATL LOSS -100
8-Dec 7 POR LOSS -100
8-Dec 18 CHA LOSS -100
8-Dec 8 MIA LOSS -100
8-Dec 16 TOR WIN -100
9-Dec 11 PHI WIN -100
9-Dec 12 BOS WIN 333
9-Dec 9 NY WIN 100
9-Dec 20 MEM LOSS -100
9-Dec 6 WAS LOSS -100
9-Dec 12 NOK LOSS -100
9-Dec 10 DEN LOSS -100
9-Dec 16 IND LOSS -100
9-Dec 11 MIN WIN 312
10-Dec 9 POR WIN 290
10-Dec 21 LAX WIN 187
10-Dec 20 ATL LOSS -100
10-Dec 24 CHA LOSS -100
10-Dec 6 SEA LOSS 100
11-Dec 21 LAC LOSS -100
11-Dec 10 ORL LOSS -100
11-Dec 8 POR WIN 160
11-Dec 19 MEM LOSS -100
11-Dec 10 TOR LOSS -100
11-Dec 17 NOK WIN 183
11-Dec 20 IND LOSS -100
12-Dec 8 SEA WIN -100
12-Dec 15 HOU LOSS -114
12-Dec 35 ATL LOSS -100
13-Dec 18 LAC LOSS -100
13-Dec 16 MIN LOSS -100
13-Dec 43 MIA WIN -100
13-Dec 24 TOR WIN 520
13-Dec 9 ATL LOSS -100
13-Dec 11 MIL LOSS -100
13-Dec 9 POR WIN 181
13-Dec 14 IND WIN 127
13-Dec 10 WAS WIN 100
13-Dec 16 LAX PUSH -100
13-Dec 8 CHA WIN -100
13-Dec 15 SEA LOSS -100
13-Dec 10 PHI LOSS -100
14-Dec 19 NOK LOSS -100
14-Dec 9 CHA WIN 108
14-Dec 10 HOU WIN -100
15-Dec 23 MIA PUSH -100
15-Dec 5 SAC WIN 270
15-Dec 15 GS WIN -100
15-Dec 18 TOR WIN 133
15-Dec 16 ATL WIN 305
15-Dec 22 POR WIN 138
15-Dec 5 NY LOSS -100
15-Dec 16 BOS WIN 131
15-Dec 19 PHI WIN -100
15-Dec 14 SEA LOSS -100
15-Dec 5 MIL WIN -100
16-Dec 12 SAC LOSS -100
16-Dec 9 MIL WIN 118
16-Dec 8 MIA WIN 100
16-Dec 7 NJ LOSS -100
16-Dec 29 NY LOSS -100
16-Dec 27 NOK LOSS -100
16-Dec 7 ORL WIN 108
16-Dec 16 ATL WIN -100
16-Dec 9 BOS WIN 143
17-Dec 8 WAS WIN 200
17-Dec 10 TOR WIN 113
17-Dec 14 SEA WIN -100
18-Dec 21 DEN WIN 158
18-Dec 30 NY WIN 320
18-Dec 9 GS LOSS -100
18-Dec 5 NOK WIN -100
18-Dec 12 SEA LOSS -100
18-Dec 21 SAC LOSS -100
19-Dec 23 TOR LOSS -100
20-Dec 20 ATL LOSS -100
20-Dec 9 MEM WIN -100
20-Dec 17 NOK WIN -100
20-Dec 5 MIL WIN 100
20-Dec 17 TOR WIN 360
20-Dec 14 PHI LOSS -100
20-Dec 22 POR WIN 190
20-Dec 7 BOS LOSS -119
20-Dec 26 SEA LOSS -100
20-Dec 6 NJ WIN 100
21-Dec 10 WAS WIN 164
22-Dec 27 CHA WIN 270
22-Dec 12 HOU WIN 350
22-Dec 18 DEN LOSS -143
22-Dec 12 BOS LOSS -143
22-Dec 11 GS WIN 163
22-Dec 15 NO WIN 100
22-Dec 10 LAC LOSS -100
22-Dec 18 NY WIN 204
22-Dec 19 ATL LOSS -100
22-Dec 11 MIL WIN 240
22-Dec 18 WAS WIN 552
23-Dec 15 MEM WIN -100
23-Dec 10 TOR LOSS -100
23-Dec 33 NOK LOSS -100
23-Dec 11 ATL LOSS -100
23-Dec 7 MIL WIN 100
23-Dec 12 CHA LOSS -100
23-Dec 9 GS LOSS -100
25-Dec 8 MIA WIN 105
26-Dec 7 LAC LOSS -100
26-Dec 15 MIL WIN 360
26-Dec 26 POR LOSS -100
26-Dec 6 HOU LOSS -100
26-Dec 6 PHI LOSS -100
26-Dec 6 NJ WIN -100
26-Dec 19 CHA PUSH -100
26-Dec 8 MIN WIN 103
27-Dec 20 CHA LOSS -100
27-Dec 10 PHI LOSS -100
27-Dec 5 HOU WIN 201
27-Dec 9 TOR WIN 100
27-Dec 13 BOS LOSS -100
27-Dec 21 NY WIN 187
27-Dec 26 ATL LOSS -100
1-Jan 6 BOS WIN 245
1-Jan 22 CHA LOSS -100
2-Jan 10 NY LOSS -100
2-Jan 18 CLE WIN 150
2-Jan 20 CHI WIN -100
2-Jan 17 NOK LOSS -100
2-Jan 9 PHI WIN 255
2-Jan 18 SEA LOSS -100
3-Jan 26 PHI PUSH -100
3-Jan 25 MIN WIN 160
3-Jan 6 NY WIN 212
3-Jan 27 TOR WIN -100
3-Jan 29 MIA LOSS -100
3-Jan 11 SEA WIN -100
3-Jan 16 BOS WIN -100
4-Jan 25 NOK LOSS -100
4-Jan 15 IND PUSH -100
5-Jan 7 LAC LOSS -100
5-Jan 6 ATL LOSS -100
5-Jan 9 NY WIN 178
5-Jan 11 DAL WIN 225
5-Jan 20 MIA LOSS -100
5-Jan 16 CHA LOSS -100
5-Jan 13 PHI WIN -100
5-Jan 9 BOS WIN 230
5-Jan 8 MIL LOSS -175
5-Jan 6 NJ WIN 100
6-Jan 36 DEN LOSS -100
6-Jan 12 POR WIN 445
6-Jan 17 ATL WIN 184
6-Jan 35 NOK WIN -100
6-Jan 10 SEA WIN -100
6-Jan 7 NJ WIN -100
7-Jan 30 MEM LOSS -100
7-Jan 11 GS LOSS -100
7-Jan 8 BOS LOSS -100
7-Jan 9 POR LOSS -117
7-Jan 13 LAX WIN 130
8-Jan 23 NOK LOSS -100
8-Jan 11 MIL LOSS -100
8-Jan 9 HOU WIN 270
9-Jan 22 POR LOSS -100
9-Jan 21 SEA WIN -100
9-Jan 11 MEM WIN 140
9-Jan 15 ATL LOSS -100
9-Jan 6 PHI LOSS -100
9-Jan 14 UTH WIN -100
10-Jan 27 MIL LOSS -100
10-Jan 29 DEN LOSS -100
10-Jan 5 NY WIN 100
10-Jan 9 SEA LOSS -103
10-Jan 9 BOS LOSS -100
10-Jan 14 CHA WIN 140
10-Jan 14 POR LOSS -100
10-Jan 10 NOK WIN 230
11-Jan 14 CLE LOSS -100
11-Jan 12 NJ WIN 270
12-Jan 17 NOK WIN 280
12-Jan 11 SEA WIN 190
12-Jan 7 BOS LOSS -100
12-Jan 15 MIL LOSS -100
12-Jan 16 ATL WIN 313
12-Jan 7 IND WIN -100
13-Jan 14 MIA WIN 311
13-Jan 28 WAS LOSS -100
13-Jan 14 ORL WIN -100
13-Jan 29 CHA WIN 100
13-Jan 9 BOS WIN -100
13-Jan 17 LAC LOSS -134
13-Jan 12 MEM LOSS -100
14-Jan 9 TOR WIN -100
15-Jan 17 WAS WIN 100
15-Jan 15 PHI LOSS -100
15-Jan 37 CHI WIN 165
15-Jan 23 NY WIN 100
15-Jan 22 MEM LOSS -100
15-Jan 13 MIN WIN 125
15-Jan 32 BOS WIN -100
16-Jan 32 NOK WIN 265
16-Jan 16 HOU LOSS -100
17-Jan 6 NY WIN -100
17-Jan 22 LAX WIN 380
17-Jan 28 HOU LOSS -100
17-Jan 9 CHA LOSS -100
17-Jan 22 ATL WIN 445
17-Jan 13 PHI LOSS -100
17-Jan 17 GS WIN -100
17-Jan 17 POR WIN 145
17-Jan 13 MIL LOSS -100
18-Jan 26 IND WIN -100
18-Jan 17 LAX LOSS -100
19-Jan 7 ORL LOSS -170
19-Jan 21 TOR LOSS -127
19-Jan 12 BOS LOSS -100
19-Jan 30 PHI WIN 135
19-Jan 22 MIL LOSS -100
19-Jan 6 NOK WIN -100
19-Jan 10 POR WIN -100
19-Jan 7 NY WIN -100
19-Jan 9 MIN LOSS -100
19-Jan 15 DEN WIN 100
19-Jan 21 CHA WIN 205
20-Jan 11 BOS WIN -100
20-Jan 8 NJ WIN 100
20-Jan 14 NOK WIN 235
20-Jan 13 NY WIN 270
20-Jan 27 SAC LOSS -100
20-Jan 31 GS LOSS -116
20-Jan 6 CHA WIN 100
21-Jan 6 PHI LOSS -100
21-Jan 5 MIL WIN -100
21-Jan 26 MIN LOSS -100
21-Jan 16 MIA PUSH -100
22-Jan 6 MIN LOSS -100
22-Jan 19 CHA LOSS -100
22-Jan 31 BOS WIN -100
22-Jan 8 NJ WIN -100
22-Jan 6 MIA WIN 105
22-Jan 14 GS WIN -100
22-Jan 14 MEM LOSS -100
Next:
Quick look at just the more recent games.
First, January so far (22 days),
Then, the last six weeks (42 days)
Results are down a little, especially on the ML (though just one or two wins would have fixed that.) Sorted by the sixe of the % gap, results are generally in line with the year-long pattern:
(1 unit = $100) AGAINST THE SPREAD
66-53 (.569), +1035 BREAKDOWN
21%+ 15-18 (.455), -390
11-20% 27-20 (.574), +600
5-10% 24-15 (.615), +825
BOTH COMBINED
+2974 BREAKDOWN
21%+ -440
11-20% +1454
5-10% +1960
By the looks of it, we've had FAR more than the usual number of cover-but-not-win-outright teams in that 5-10% off range over the last six weeks.
This is a real oddity. ALL of the ATS profit has come from that 5-10% off group, while all of the ML profit has come from the OTHER groups. But I have to believe that this is a random result.
For recent weeks and for the year, the bottom line is:
(1) the entire grouping of ML plays is meaningfully profitable
(2) the entire grouping of ATS plays is meaningfully profitable, and
(3) the entire grouping of 5%-20% plays is meaningfully profitable.
Also,
(4) the entire grouping of 21%+ plays is not profitable. Meaningfully not profitable? I think so, although I am not entirely sure.
I'll list them by net-$ performance (each ML play = risk $100; each ATS play = 105/100)
# OF PLAYS -- TEAM -- DOLLAR RESULT
MONEYLINE PLAY-ON TEAMS
40 POR 2442
34 ATL 2009
31 NOK 1906
34 NY 1649
13 WAS 1332
10 UTH 1256
10 LAX 1011
16 NJ 652
24 MIN 489
30 TOR 458
11 ORL 423
2 DAL 418
12 SAC 220
37 CHA 181
5 DET 155
2 CLE 50
16 MIA 1
0 SAN 0
0 PHX 0
9 DEN -85
12 HOU -111
4 CHI -135
16 GS -188
9 LAC -734
15 IND -873
24 SEA -873
31 BOS -896
24 MIL -939
32 PHI -1446
28 MEM -1524
MONEYLINE PLAY-AGAINST TEAMS
15 NJ 931
16 DEN 845
36 SAN 837
7 MEM 820
17 ORL 725
14 LAX 720
13 MIN 627
4 POR 602
8 SEA 551
4 CHA 518
23 UTH 484
4 ATL 435
24 CHI 415
4 NOK 369
17 LAC 268
6 PHI 235
27 CLE 187
14 SAC 129
24 DET 67
4 MIL 0
4 NY -108
6 BOS -173
6 TOR -210
12 HOU -309
17 WAS -373
12 GS -441
16 MIA -483
17 IND -722
32 DAL -1303
32 PHX -2237
POINTSPREAD PLAY-ON TEAMS
30 TOR 1155
31 NOK 1050
16 NJ 985
10 UTH 795
24 MIN 760
16 MIA 580
24 SEA 555
34 NY 530
13 WAS 480
34 ATL 325
40 POR 310
5 DET 295
10 LAX 285
11 ORL 280
2 DAL 200
16 GS 165
9 DEN 80
0 SAN 0
0 PHX 0
2 CLE -5
4 CHI -10
15 IND -35
31 BOS -180
12 SAC -235
12 HOU -235
28 MEM -275
24 MIL -470
37 CHA -500
9 LAC -740
32 PHI -795
POINTSPREAD PLAY-AGAINST TEAMS
17 ORL 675
14 LAX 580
15 NJ 475
17 LAC 470
27 CLE 445
4 POR 400
4 CHA 400
4 ATL 400
12 HOU 380
23 UTH 355
7 MEM 290
13 MIN 275
4 NOK 195
4 MIL 195
6 PHI 190
8 SEA 185
17 WAS 165
24 DET 145
4 NY -10
6 BOS -15
14 SAC -35
16 MIA -40
24 CHI -60
16 DEN -245
36 SAN -295
6 TOR -425
12 GS -440
32 DAL -480
32 PHX -695
17 IND -760
COMBINING THE TWO:
TOTAL NET DOLLARS, PLAY-ON TEAMS:
31 NOK 2956
40 POR 2752
34 ATL 2334
34 NY 2179
10 UTH 2051
13 WAS 1812
16 NJ 1637
30 TOR 1613
10 LAX 1296
24 MIN 1249
11 ORL 703
2 DAL 618
16 MIA 581
5 DET 450
2 CLE 45
0 SAN 0
0 PHX 0
9 DEN -5
12 SAC -15
16 GS -23
4 CHI -145
24 SEA -318
37 CHA -319
12 HOU -346
15 IND -908
31 BOS -1076
24 MIL -1409
9 LAC -1474
28 MEM -1799
32 PHI -2241
TOTAL NET DOLLARS, PLAY-AGAINST TEAMS
15 NJ 1406
17 ORL 1400
14 LAX 1300
7 MEM 1110
4 POR 1002
4 CHA 918
13 MIN 902
23 UTH 839
4 ATL 835
17 LAC 738
8 SEA 736
27 CLE 632
16 DEN 600
4 NOK 564
36 SAN 542
6 PHI 425
24 CHI 355
24 DET 212
4 MIL 195
14 SAC 94
12 HOU 71
4 NY -118
6 BOS -188
17 WAS -208
16 MIA -523
6 TOR -635
12 GS -881
17 IND -1482
32 DAL -1783
32 PHX -2932
Couple of notes:
(1)
Have not once gotten to play SAN or PHX. The two play-on DAL games were both against SAN -- and winners.
(2)
DAL and PHX are just death to oppose. SAN, not so much, as it turns out -- it just seems that way I guess. CHA +815 at SA early in the year has partially helped keep the Spurs away from the Suns-Mavs level of moneyburning, but that does not fully explain it.
(3)
The Pacers have killed these plays, whether you are with them or against them. Probably just random. Likely there is a team like that every year.
The flip side of that would be the Nets -- who have been very cooperative whether the play is against them or on them (except for blowing a 20-pt lead last night at GS).
Great stuff Jay. I also noticed that trend with the Nets. They are being very cooperative these days. Perhaps JJ has some of them on the payroll for you. K)
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Jay Edgar NBA, Report on First Half of Regular Season
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