1. 09-25-09 01:00 AM #1
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    Don't be fooled, LA/Phoenix goes under

    The O/U is 181. 181! That's the highest O/U between these teams in the past 2 years. The second highest? Wednesday's game @ 177.

    LA has an effective road offensive rating of 100.28 going into this game, and Phoenix has an effective home offensive rating of 105. With each team expecting ~79 possessions tomorrow, this means the expected total is <165.

    LA is not a high scoring team, and actually only has a offensive rating of 94 on the road, but thanks to the Mercury's poor defense they can expect a few more pts than normal. LA's only chance of winning tomorrow, however, is to buckle down on defense and slow Pheonix's massive 92.8 pts/game. This doesn't make Pheonix's defense any better, but it means each play is going to take longer, which means less possessions, and less pts scored.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 09-25-09 01:11 AM #2
    jcygts6
    Scared $$ Dont make $$
    jcygts6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-05-09
    Posts: 3,316
    Betpoints: 579

    u sure about that? I bet U it will go over
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 09-25-09 01:20 AM #3
    SportsTerminator
    SportsTerminator's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-09
    Posts: 5,179
    Betpoints: 810

    If it goes under chubber911 will give all his betpoints to jcygts6. And if it goes under vice versa.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 09-25-09 03:37 AM #4
    BL
    BL's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-11-09
    Posts: 4,070
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by chubber911 View Post
    With each team expecting ~79 possessions tomorrow, this means the expected total is <165.
    Nice writeup but you are talking about Phoenix! They don't care about statistics and will run and gun again. Total > 181
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 09-25-09 05:33 AM #5
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    The 2 games played in Phoenix this year were low-scoring (for Phoenix). However, the first one was in June, and the last one was on 9/13 when Diana Taurasi was out.

    No one can set the pace against Phoenix, and their coach has stated multiple times they're going to run and gun. Lisa Leslie couldn't even stand up with 5 minutes left in the last game.

    The only way this goes under is if LA shoots 30% or less from the field, and that won't happen because of their size advantage and the 35 layups they're going to get.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 09-25-09 06:11 AM #6
    Emily_Haines
    Emily_Haines's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-09
    Posts: 15,888
    Betpoints: 15319

    LOL, Yeah under 210
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 09-25-09 06:29 AM #7
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    The o/u just went to 181.5 on Bookmaker
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 09-25-09 07:58 AM #8
    Pin Fish
    Pin Fish's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-08
    Posts: 1,295
    Betpoints: 13609

    Well, how long was DT on the bench for in game one................not going to happen in this game .............that means............................................
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 09-25-09 08:36 AM #9
    Reload
    Winning Aint Easy
    Reload's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 12,184
    Betpoints: 14864

    Over gets my call
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 09-25-09 08:42 AM #10
    BL
    BL's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-11-09
    Posts: 4,070
    Betpoints: 0

    over
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 09-25-09 01:48 PM #11
    Wilforth
    Update your status
    Wilforth's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-10-08
    Posts: 16,309
    Betpoints: 0

    I think between Pho RL and the Over, something will screw up tonight. I don't know which.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 09-25-09 01:54 PM #12
    RobbReport
    RobbReport's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-22-09
    Posts: 2,042
    Betpoints: 0

    commentator said last game, in order for sparks to have a chance in that game they would need to put up 80.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 09-25-09 02:57 PM #13
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    Phoenix has #1 offense, Phoenix also allows more pts than an other team. It's not too hard to put up 80 pts against Phoenix, considering they allow an average of 89 pts per game. LA will never win trying to out shoot Phoenix. LA is second last in the league in 3pters allowed, and Phoenix is first in the league for 3pters made, so if LA thinks they can walk into Phoenix's house and just trade baskets all night then yes this game goes over and LA gets made an example of. It's more than just a matter of putting up points for LA, they need to slow Phoenix.

    Phoenix was shooting 46.0% for FGs for the season, and 38.7% for 3pts.
    On Wednesday they shot 49.3% for FGs, and 46.7% for 3pts.

    LA was shooting 43.0% for FGs for the season, and 29.7% for 3pts.
    On Wednesday they shot 47.4% for FGs, and 38.5% for 3pts.

    This gives me the impression that Wednesday was not an example of how every game will score, but instead some positive variance.

    62% of bettors are on O, 38% are on U, and yet the line is the same now as it was at open. Bigger bets are being put on the under by more confident bettors.

    No bet is ever a lock, but I just can't find substantial information suggesting that betting over tonight seem profitable in the long run. Obviously if the game goes over I'll look like a tool, but I've put a lot more effort into capping this than looking at the last 5 box scores and firmly believe I am right in these spots more often than not. Best of luck, everyone.
    Last edited by chubber911; 09-25-09 at 03:11 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 09-25-09 03:27 PM #14
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Do you think betting the under is a better bet, or merely that the game should go under?

    I've followed Phoenix all year long. If someone would have bet the over in every game, and nothing else, you'd have made tens of thousands of dollars. The % is well over 60%.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 09-25-09 03:33 PM #15
    oiler
    oiler's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-06-09
    Posts: 6,585
    Betpoints: 2500

    Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor View Post
    Do you think betting the under is a better bet, or merely that the game should go under?

    I've followed Phoenix all year long. If someone would have bet the over in every game, and nothing else, you'd have made tens of thousands of dollars. The % is well over 60%.
    it gonna take overtime for it to get that high and i wouldnt put that pass them
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 09-25-09 03:42 PM #16
    Domestic
    Domestic's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-09
    Posts: 6,323
    Betpoints: 1756

    Don't forget that if LA can put up a slightly better fight than last time we may well have a scenario in the final quarter where there will be a tonne of intentional fouls and desperate three three shot attempts to level the margin. I am not sure if I will make a play on this but if I was I would go over.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 09-25-09 04:04 PM #17
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor View Post
    Do you think betting the under is a better bet, or merely that the game should go under?
    Better bet

    I've followed Phoenix all year long. If someone would have bet the over in every game, and nothing else, you'd have made tens of thousands of dollars. The % is well over 60%.
    One season in WNBA is a small sample size, and I don't know how wise it is to bet a certain way in this sport just by following ATS or OU trending. Were there any teams that hit >60% unders? Any teams that went >60% or <40% ATS?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 09-25-09 04:18 PM #18
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Chub, I don't think any other team was close to Phoenix's %, whether it was over or under. I only base that on my own personal knowledge of studying the lines for just about every game all season long. It would be an interesting exercise but I don't have the time.

    Good luck if you're playing the under. I have the over 173 in my teaser, I'm comfortable with that.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 09-25-09 07:23 PM #19
    hels
    hels's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-12-09
    Posts: 8,767
    Betpoints: 1

    I know season to season changes quite a bit in ncaa but mizz won 69-17 last year. Score will probably be about 69-31 today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 09-25-09 08:42 PM #20
    tullamore21
    Update your status
    tullamore21's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-12-09
    Posts: 1,929
    Betpoints: 3213

    I must admit that chubber spent his time and analysed the statistics in a logical way.
    You are right in your spots , but it seems that you expect a close game.
    LA didn't play the way you describe at home, why do you think they will do it tonight?
    they didn't stop the high tempo and transition game. they ran a lot, following Mercury's speed. that was wrong and i agree with you, that the last game's numbers don't tell the truth of the LA scoring ability, but the didn't play in a more common and logical way in their homecourt.
    They need to low the total in order to win, but not in PHOENIX. i cannot say that that would be an over game, i didn't bet on that, but if a had to, then OVER is the pick.
    Anyway, nice job m8.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 09-25-09 10:03 PM #21
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    The under 181 is looking good. Oh well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 09-25-09 11:15 PM #22
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    Not only did I say under 181, I said under 165. Final score 87-76.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 09-26-09 12:00 AM #23
    SportsTerminator
    SportsTerminator's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-09
    Posts: 5,179
    Betpoints: 810

    It's simple if LA wins it's going under if Phoenix wins it's going over.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 09-26-09 12:03 AM #24
    oda11
    oda11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-05-09
    Posts: 3,250
    Betpoints: 2782

    WOW, nice call chubber!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 09-26-09 08:46 AM #25
    Reload
    Winning Aint Easy
    Reload's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 12,184
    Betpoints: 14864

    Nice call, chubber!

    Any thoughts on today's Game 3's?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 09-26-09 03:34 PM #26
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    Tonight I'm playing Indiana -3.5, this game will not be close like last night.

    Statistically, betting Phoenix ATS tonight seems like a good wager. But my confidence level in this team is completely shot, so I don't want to put money on their side. Funny enough, being less confident in Phoenix covering tonight makes me more confident that this game goes under.

    Maybe it seems like I'm looking for trouble, but with the LA/PHO line at 179 there's just so much value in betting the under again. I got the score for this game averaging <170. I'm not as confident in tonight's bet as I was in last night's. But that doesn't mean I don't think it's a good bet.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 09-26-09 03:45 PM #27
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Detroit ML is my play. I don't see how Indiana can beat them tonight, Detroit has too much experience and depth.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 09-26-09 05:22 PM #28
    Domestic
    Domestic's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-09
    Posts: 6,323
    Betpoints: 1756

    Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor View Post
    Detroit ML is my play. I don't see how Indiana can beat them tonight, Detroit has too much experience and depth.
    I think this is the best bet as far as today's WNBA is concerned.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 09-26-09 08:15 PM #29
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Quote Originally Posted by chubber911 View Post
    Tonight I'm playing Indiana -3.5, this game will not be close like last night.

    Statistically, betting Phoenix ATS tonight seems like a good wager. But my confidence level in this team is completely shot, so I don't want to put money on their side. Funny enough, being less confident in Phoenix covering tonight makes me more confident that this game goes under.

    Maybe it seems like I'm looking for trouble, but with the LA/PHO line at 179 there's just so much value in betting the under again. I got the score for this game averaging <170. I'm not as confident in tonight's bet as I was in last night's. But that doesn't mean I don't think it's a good bet.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 09-26-09 08:16 PM #30
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    Indiana did it. I didn't think they could.

    Congrats to the Fever backers and great call chubber.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 09-26-09 08:18 PM #31
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    That one was a nail-biter. Could've gone either way in the last 30 seconds.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 09-26-09 09:29 PM #32
    Domestic
    Domestic's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-09
    Posts: 6,323
    Betpoints: 1756

    Well done again chubber.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 09-26-09 09:34 PM #33
    RoagBettor
    RoagBettor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-09
    Posts: 8,355
    Betpoints: 297

    LA shot their load last night. 7 pts in the 1Q. I knew they'd be exhausted today.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 09-26-09 09:35 PM #34
    Domestic
    Domestic's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-09
    Posts: 6,323
    Betpoints: 1756

    Under looking good unless of course overtime.
    Glad I got on the under.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 09-26-09 10:18 PM #35
    chubber911
    chubber911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-09
    Posts: 201
    Betpoints: 0

    Thank you LA for shooting 7-29 from the field.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | NBA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »