[Jay Edgar]

The basic explanation is here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread...referrerid=905


After every tenth of the NBA regular season (126 games) I am looking back to see what the results are saying. I have done it twice so far, right on schedule. On Dec 21 we hit the 3/10ths point of the season. Because of the Xmas schedule break, I waited through the 12.23.06 games and am counting all those games in this review.

The headlines:

1. The 5%-OFF method is calling for plays on a lot of games – about three out of every four games played so far (297 out of 401).

2. The Edgar Line numbers have been consistently good and consistently profitable. The fluctuations and cold streaks have been minor. Just blindly playing every game where the Pinny ML closes 5% or more away from the Edgar Line has produced a steady profit.

Make a unit $100. All calculations below assume that a play-on team gets both a $100 ATS bet (risking $105 to make $ 100,) and a ML bet (if on the dog risking $100; if on the favorite to make $100.) .

All games:
Moneyline plays
297 plays
112 wins, 155 losses
$3714
($12.51 per play)

ATS
297 plays
160-135-2
$1825
($6.14 per play)

Blindly dropping $100 ML and $100 ATS on every team where the Pinny ML reaches the strike price would mean a profit through December 23 of $5539 (plus another $205 on Xmas Day.)

There has been little by way of a losing skid to test anyone's nerve. The ML plays have shown a profit in 7 or the 8 weeks; the ATS plays in 6 of the 8 weeks

3. Obviously, discovering which subgroups of plays did best in the past says nothing certain about the future. But it’s still worth looking backward. I’ve now sliced these 297 past plays every way I can, to try to identify for future use what the characteristics of a prime play might be. In the posts below I’ll just set out some of the results. But the main conclusion is:

a. So far this year, at a certain point when Edgar Line is too far off from the market, the market tends to be somewhat more right.

The Edgar Line is still much more right when it is at least 5% but less than 12% off from the closing Pinny ML.

But the market has been more right overall when the Edgar Line is 12% or more (actually, 17% or more) off the closing Pinny ML, especially when the Edgar Line is pointing to the home team.

b. Overall, focusing just on when the Edgar Line is between 5% and 11% off from the Pinny closing line, taking the “play-on” team for 1 unit on the ML has been worth $29.37 per play or a total of $4582 over 156 bets (69 wins, 87 losses).

Betting them one $100 unit ATS has been worth $18.53 per bet or a total of $2890 over 156 bets (94 wins, 62 losses).

Overall, when the Edgar Line is 12% or more off from the Pinny closing line, taking the “play-on” team for 1 unit ($100) on the ML has been worth -$6.16 per bet or a total loss of -$868 over 141 bets. Betting one unit ATS has been worth -$7.55 per bet or a total loss of -$1065 over 141 bets (66-73-2).

But the performance of the “12%+” teams also has a wide home/road differential. That is, they are worse at home.

82 plays on a “12%+” home team:
ML -$676 (-$8.24 per play).
ATS -$1435 (-$17.50 per play)

Better on the road:
59 plays on a "12%+" road team:
ML: -$192 (-$3.25 per play)
ATS: $370 (+6.27 per play)

A couple of other subgroups have been losers so far. They are:

Plays against the best western teams (PHX, DAL, SAN) Yes there was the +815 moneyline hit on CHA against SAN. But otherwise, nothing but misery. Those three teams just take care of business far too well. ML plays against the big three are down -$1373 over 64 plays (-$21.45 per play) ( 14-50). ATS plays are down -$1490 (-$23.28 per play) over the same 64 plays (25-38-1).

Playing true favorites has also been a small negative. Of course the system doesn’t really call for many of these plays – so far just 12 plays on teams giving 3.5 points or more. They are 6-6 on the ML (for -$393) and 5-7 ATS (for -$235).

Saturday night has been the worst night of the week by far. Don’t know why. The 63 Saturday night plays so far are down -$2026 (-$32.16 per play) on the ML and down -$465 (-$7.38 per play) ATS. My first thought was that it might have something to do with Saturday night games having the largest share of unrested teams. While I do try to account for no-rest in the Edgar Line, maybe that factor makes things too volatile? But that doesn’t really check out. The no-rest factor overall is close to break even. (All unrested play-on teams are up $1.20 per play on the ML and down -$6.20 per play ATS over 82 plays no matter the day of the week. All plays against unrested teams are up $4.57 per play on the ML and down -$4.03 per play on the ML.)

But, for whatever reason, the “12%+” teams in particular have been beyond brutal on Saturday nights. Over 24 games they are 3-21 on the ML for -$1718 units or an amazing minus $71.58 per $100 play. ATS they are 10-14 for -$470. That group of 24 ugly plays includes Memphis six times and the Knicks four times; it includes 19 plays on unrested teams, but 16 plays against unrested opponents. Somehow Saturday night has been home to the worst of the worst. Even the teams in that Edgar Line sweet spot, at 5-11% off the closing Pinny ML, are also worse on Saturday night than in the rest of the week. Saturdays they lose $8 per play on the ML and are only break even ATS. For now, I can only think that the Saturday thing is probably just an aberration.

Of course, just for fun, I have to run this completely bogus, backfitted analysis:

Playing teams 5%-11% off only, never fading DAL-PHX-SAN, and avoiding favorites of 3.5 or more or any action on Saturday nights:

ML plays
45-51
+$3442
(+$35.85 per play)

ATS plays
62-34
(.646)
+2630
(+$27.40 per play)

I think it says something very good that this "dream set" of games does not actually dramatically outperform the entire set of 5% OFF plays. The dream set is up $6072 overall, while the full set is up $5539.

And the 5-11% subset of all games, with nothing else taken out, is up $7472 -- even better than the cherry picked plays. In other words, cherry-picking among the 5-11% (or 5-17%, which is essentially the same net) is probably not helpful or necessary. The main thing is recognizing that if the market is way way off from the Edgar Line, the market may "know" and be accounting for something that the Edgar Line isn't.

I'll make a few posts below dumping some of the data, for anyone who is curious.

[Jay Edgar]

COMPLETE GAME-BY-GAME

DATE-%OFF-TEAM-ML$-ATS$
31-Oct 34 LAX 315 100

1-Nov 22 LAX 265 100
1-Nov 16 UTH 101 100
1-Nov 16 SAC -100 -105
1-Nov 13 MEM -213 -105
1-Nov 6 POR 360 100
1-Nov 5 ORL 101 100
1-Nov 5 NO 142 100

3-Nov 13 POR -100 -105
3-Nov 12 MEM 100 100
3-Nov 6 UTH 248 100
3-Nov 8 PHI 193 100
3-Nov 5 ATL 100 100

4-Nov 13 NY -100 -105
4-Nov 7 BOS -100 100
4-Nov 8 POR 148 100
4-Nov 11 MEM -100 -105
4-Nov 11 CHA 165 100

5-Nov 17 TOR -100 -105
5-Nov 15 PHI 124 100
5-Nov 13 ATL 140 100
5-Nov 5 LAX -100 -105
5-Nov 6 NO 100 100

6-Nov 16 NY -100 -105
6-Nov 6 DET -100 100
6-Nov 11 POR -100 -105
6-Nov 11 GS 420 100
6-Nov 6 MIL -100 -105

7-Nov 23 MEM -100 -105
7-Nov 9 SEA -100 100
7-Nov 11 MIN -100 100
7-Nov 8 PHI -100 -105
7-Nov 10 ATL 505 100

8-Nov 15 POR 179 100
8-Nov 14 SEA -100 100
8-Nov 5 IND -100 -105
8-Nov 8 NY 510 100
8-Nov 8 LAC 100 100
8-Nov 7 CHA -100 100

10-Nov 12 DET 200 100
10-Nov 12 NY -100 100
10-Nov 8 BOS -100 -105
10-Nov 7 POR 126 100
10-Nov 6 NJ -172 -105
10-Nov 5 ORL -100 -105
10-Nov 7 PHI -130 -105

11-Nov 24 MEM -100 100
11-Nov 15 NY -100 100
11-Nov 13 BOS -100 100
11-Nov 8 MIL -107 -105
11-Nov 5 ORL 187 100
11-Nov 6 DET -100 -105
11-Nov 5 IND -100 -105

12-Nov 27 POR -100 -105
12-Nov 21 CHA -100 -105
12-Nov 17 MEM -100 -105
12-Nov 5 NJ 199 100
12-Nov 6 TOR -100 -105

13-Nov 25 NY -100 -105
13-Nov 5 BOS -108 -105

14-Nov 19 POR -100 -105
14-Nov 14 UTH 105 100
14-Nov 12 ATL 100 100
14-Nov 8 HOU -118 -105
14-Nov 6 CHA -100 -105
14-Nov 7 CHI -100 -105

15-Nov 16 POR -100 -105
15-Nov 14 NY 138 100
15-Nov 9 CHA 815 100
15-Nov 11 MEM -100 100
15-Nov 8 BOS 105 100
15-Nov 10 NOK 325 100

17-Nov 23 MEM -100 -105
17-Nov 22 NY 360 100
17-Nov 14 POR -100 -105
17-Nov 13 TOR -100 100
17-Nov 11 UTH 173 100
17-Nov 10 CHI -100 -105
17-Nov 9 PHI -100 -105
17-Nov 8 NJ 178 100
17-Nov 6 WAS -100 -105
17-Nov 7 MIN -100 -105

18-Nov 20 ATL -148 -105
18-Nov 18 MEM -100 100
18-Nov 14 MIL -175 -105
18-Nov 5 UTH 100 -105
18-Nov 6 CHA -100 -105
18-Nov 8 POR 370 100
18-Nov 8 NOK 129 100
18-Nov 8 PHI -100 100
18-Nov 10 SEA -100 -105
18-Nov 5 HOU -100 -105
18-Nov 9 TOR -100 100
18-Nov 10 NY -115 -105

19-Nov 20 SAC -100 -105

20-Nov 29 GS -100 100
20-Nov 28 POR -100 -105
20-Nov 22 NY -100 -105
20-Nov 16 MEM 144 100
20-Nov 15 CHA -100 -105
20-Nov 8 TOR -100 100
20-Nov 5 SEA 100 100

21-Nov 18 PHI -100 -105
21-Nov 15 MEM -100 100
21-Nov 7 NOK 100 100
21-Nov 6 DEN 100 100

22-Nov 25 POR 160 100
22-Nov 17 TOR 116 100
22-Nov 13 NY -100 -105
22-Nov 13 NOK -100 -105
22-Nov 12 GS -185 -105
22-Nov 7 UTH 173 100
22-Nov 8 SEA 220 100
22-Nov 5 ATL -100 100

24-Nov 18 MEM 122 100
24-Nov 11 SAC 240 100
24-Nov 5 DAL 193 100
24-Nov 5 MIN 178 100
24-Nov 10 CHA -100 -105
24-Nov 5 IND 100 100
24-Nov 9 PHI 107 100

25-Nov 25 NY -100 -105
25-Nov 17 MEM -100 100
25-Nov 14 MIN 127 100
25-Nov 14 GS 107 100
25-Nov 13 CHA -145 -105
25-Nov 8 POR -100 -105
25-Nov 8 ATL -100 -105
25-Nov 9 NOK -100 -105
25-Nov 7 PHI -100 -105

26-Nov 22 POR -100 -105
26-Nov 21 SEA -100 -105
26-Nov 6 DEN -100 100
26-Nov 10 TOR 100 100

27-Nov 28 GS 160 100
27-Nov 15 MIN -100 100
27-Nov 7 ORL 248 100

28-Nov 14 MEM 400 100
28-Nov 14 NY -100 -105
28-Nov 13 MIN -100 100
28-Nov 11 ATL -100 100
28-Nov 8 TOR 165 100
28-Nov 11 CHA 270 100
28-Nov 9 POR -100 -105

29-Nov 25 TOR -100 -105
29-Nov 18 HOU -100 -105
29-Nov 14 NY 490 100
29-Nov 14 UTH 110 100
29-Nov 12 MEM -100 -105
29-Nov 12 BOS -136 -105
29-Nov 6 ATL 100 100

30-Nov 14 MIA -100 100

1-Dec 23 ATL -100 -105
1-Dec 14 NOK -100 -105
1-Dec 12 MIL -100 100
1-Dec 11 CHA -100 -105
1-Dec 6 IND -100 100
1-Dec 9 POR -100 100
1-Dec 9 NY -100 100
1-Dec 9 MIN -116 -105
1-Dec 10 SAC -100 -105
1-Dec 6 TOR 100 100

2-Dec 16 MEM -117 -105
2-Dec 11 SEA -100 100
2-Dec 10 SAC -100 100
2-Dec 9 PHI -100 100
2-Dec 8 LAX 134 100

3-Dec 17 CHA 175 100
3-Dec 5 MIN 118 100

4-Dec 13 GS -100 -105
4-Dec 11 MIL -100 -105
4-Dec 9 IND -100 -105
4-Dec 8 WAS 152 100
4-Dec 9 BOS -100 -105

5-Dec 23 POR 550 100
5-Dec 15 SAC -100 -105
5-Dec 8 MIA -100 100
5-Dec 8 NJ -100 -105

6-Dec 30 CHA -100 -105
6-Dec 22 TOR -100 100
6-Dec 12 NY -100 -105
6-Dec 12 PHI -100 -105
6-Dec 7 NOK 375 100
6-Dec 9 MIN 100 100
6-Dec 5 ATL 580 100

7-Dec 5 MIA 190 100
7-Dec 6 NJ -100 100
7-Dec 6 DET 255 100

8-Dec 18 CHA -100 -105
8-Dec 16 TOR -100 100
8-Dec 14 MIN 102 100
8-Dec 14 BOS -100 -105
8-Dec 11 PHI -100 -105
8-Dec 9 LAC -100 -105
8-Dec 6 MEM -100 -105
8-Dec 11 ATL -100 -105
8-Dec 7 POR -100 -105
8-Dec 8 MIA -100 -105

9-Dec 20 MEM -100 -105
9-Dec 16 IND -100 -105
9-Dec 12 NOK -100 -105
9-Dec 12 BOS 333 100
9-Dec 11 PHI -100 100
9-Dec 9 NY 100 100
9-Dec 6 WAS -100 -105
9-Dec 10 DEN -100 -105
9-Dec 11 MIN 312 100

10-Dec 24 CHA -100 -105
10-Dec 21 LAX 187 100
10-Dec 20 ATL -100 -105
10-Dec 9 POR 290 100
10-Dec 6 SEA 100 -105

11-Dec 21 LAC -100 -105
11-Dec 20 IND -100 -105
11-Dec 19 MEM -100 -105
11-Dec 17 NOK 183 100
11-Dec 10 ORL -100 -105
11-Dec 8 POR 160 100
11-Dec 10 TOR -100 -105

12-Dec 35 ATL -100 -105
12-Dec 15 HOU -114 -105
12-Dec 8 SEA -100 100

13-Dec 43 MIA -100 100
13-Dec 24 TOR 520 100
13-Dec 18 LAC -100 -105
13-Dec 16 LAX -100 0
13-Dec 16 MIN -100 -105
13-Dec 15 SEA -100 -105
13-Dec 14 IND 127 100
13-Dec 9 ATL -100 -105
13-Dec 11 MIL -100 -105
13-Dec 9 POR 181 100
13-Dec 10 WAS 100 100
13-Dec 8 CHA -100 100
13-Dec 10 PHI -100 -105

14-Dec 19 NOK -100 -105
14-Dec 9 CHA 108 100
14-Dec 10 HOU -100 100

15-Dec 23 MIA -100 0
15-Dec 22 POR 138 100
15-Dec 19 PHI -100 100
15-Dec 18 TOR 133 100
15-Dec 16 BOS 131 100
15-Dec 16 ATL 305 100
15-Dec 15 GS -100 100
15-Dec 14 SEA -100 -105
15-Dec 5 SAC 270 100
15-Dec 5 NY -100 -105
15-Dec 5 MIL -100 100

16-Dec 29 NY -100 -105
16-Dec 27 NOK -100 -105
16-Dec 16 ATL -100 100
16-Dec 12 SAC -100 -105
16-Dec 9 MIL 118 100
16-Dec 8 MIA 100 100
16-Dec 7 NJ -100 -105
16-Dec 7 ORL 108 100
16-Dec 9 BOS 143 100

17-Dec 14 SEA -100 100
17-Dec 8 WAS 200 100
17-Dec 10 TOR 113 100

18-Dec 30 NY 320 100
18-Dec 21 DEN 158 100
18-Dec 21 SAC -100 -105
18-Dec 12 SEA -100 -105
18-Dec 9 GS -100 -105
18-Dec 5 NOK -100 100

19-Dec 23 TOR -100 -105

20-Dec 26 SEA -100 -105
20-Dec 22 POR 190 100
20-Dec 20 ATL -100 -105
20-Dec 17 NOK -100 100
20-Dec 17 TOR 360 100
20-Dec 14 PHI -100 -105
20-Dec 9 MEM -100 100
20-Dec 5 MIL 100 100
20-Dec 7 BOS -119 -105
20-Dec 6 NJ 100 100

21-Dec 10 WAS 164 100

22-Dec 27 CHA 270 100
22-Dec 19 ATL -100 -105
22-Dec 18 DEN -143 -105
22-Dec 18 NY 204 100
22-Dec 18 WAS 552 100
22-Dec 15 NO 100 100
22-Dec 12 BOS -143 -105
22-Dec 12 HOU 350 100
22-Dec 11 GS 163 100
22-Dec 10 LAC -100 -105
22-Dec 11 MIL 240 100

23-Dec 33 NOK -100 -105
23-Dec 15 MEM -100 100
23-Dec 12 CHA -100 -105
23-Dec 10 TOR -100 -105
23-Dec 11 ATL -100 -105
23-Dec 7 MIL 100 100
23-Dec 9 GS -100 -105

[Jay Edgar]

I try to see the closing Pinny ML for every game, and compare it to the Edgar ML.

Again, "%-OFF" means this: If the Edgar ML is 100, and Pinny closes it at 155/145, we call that 150. Pinny's dog team was made 40% to win the game while the Edgar Line had them at 50% to win. That's a play on Pinny's underdog as 10% off the Edgar Line.

ALL RESULTS
OFF--ML W/L--ML $--ATS W/L--ATS $
1% 3 3 -66 3 3 -15
2% 2 2 5 2 2 -10
3% 6 3 235 5 3 185
4% 0 5 -565 2 3 -115

5% 15 10 1650 17 8 860
6% 9 13 91 12 10 150
7% 7 9 281 9 7 165
8% 15 13 1539 20 8 1160
9% 9 16 346 15 10 450
10% 6 13 -8 8 11 -355
11% 8 13 683 13 8 460

12% 5 12 -281 7 10 -350
13% 1 10 -1018 4 7 -335
14% 9 10 631 12 7 465
15% 3 9 -511 8 4 380
16% 4 9 -236 6 6 -30
17% 4 4 434 6 2 390
18% 4 6 368 5 5 -25

19% 0 5 -500 1 4 -320
20% 0 6 -648 0 6 -630
21-24% 8 14 968 10 11 -155
25-29% 3 9 -310 4 8 -440
30+% 2 4 235 3 3 -15


Note that in the discussion above I was talking about the 5%-11% "sweet spot".

And while 12% and 13% have been net losers, 14% and 15% (partially) have been winners. As has 17%. So you could just as easily call the sweet spot "5-15%", as we were earlier in the year, or even 5%-17%. (I just chose 5%-11% out of some thought that this highly valuable system might be more user friendly if we could somehow cut down the number of plays it calls for.)

[bigboydan]

very good stuff Jay.

BTW, How was your Christmas sir?

[Jay Edgar]

Nice BBD, thanks for asking.

(I think I'm a few hundred miles straight north of you -- so I assume you had a good mild one.)

[bigboydan]

It was raining a bit here today though, but a nice day considering the time of the season.

[Jay Edgar]

Most Frequent Play-on Teams

Team--#plays--ml$--ats$
Por 25 1552 245
Ny 24 765 -265
Mem 22 -939 150
Atl 20 482 -50
Tor 19 507 670
Cha 19 458 -355
Phi 18 -906 -45
Nok 17 554 265
Sea 15 -580 65
Bos 13 -294 -135
Min 12 321 585
Gs 12 165 175
Mil 11 -224 75
Ind 11 -581 -335
Lax 9 936 285
Orl 9 343 80
Sac 9 -190 -330
Uth 8 1110 595
Hou 8 -582 -430
Was 7 968 290
Nj 7 5 85
Mia 7 -210 290
Lac 6 -400 -425
Den 5 -85 90
Det 4 255 195
Chi 2 -200 -210
Dal 1 193 100
Cle 1 -100 -105
San 0 0 0
Phx 0 0 0

Most Frequent Play-against Teams
Team--#plays--ml$--ats$
San 23 97 -570
Dal 21 -433 -460
Phx 20 -1037 -460
Cle 19 667 465
Chi 18 -128 -250
Uth 15 410 475
Det 14 -98 -35
Den 13 790 -135
Orl 13 560 685
Nj 12 930 380
Lac 12 484 585
Mia 12 -298 -30
Ind 12 -592 -645
Was 11 -83 180
Hou 11 -209 280
Lax 10 340 180
Gs 9 -141 -330
Min 8 382 185
Sac 8 -16 -20
Sea 6 473 190
Bos 6 -173 -15
Mem 5 690 295
Cha 4 518 400
Nok 4 369 195
Mil 4 0 195
Phi 3 135 95
Ny 3 -213 -110
Tor 1 290 100
Atl 0 0 0
Por 0 0 0

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS
WEEK--#PLAYS --(W-L)--$
Nov5 23 (15-8) 1689
Nov12 35 (9-26) -283
Nov19 37 (12-25) 234
Nov26 39 (17-22) 57
Dec3 35 (12-23) 101
Dec10 38 (11-27) 349
Dec17 54 (21-33) 401
Dec23 36 (15-21) 1166

ATS PLAYS
WEEK--#PLAYS --(W-L)--$
Nov5 23 (16-7) 865
Nov12 35 (18-17) 15
Nov19 37 (16-21) -605
Nov26 39 (23-16) 620
Dec3 35 (23-12) 1040
Dec10 38 (16-22) -710
Dec17 54 (29-23) 485
Dec23 36 (19-17) 115

[lkravovicz]

some eye-opening work JE, thank you.
may i suggest in the FAQ to include a link to one of these tables:
Moneyline Conversion Chart - Favorites - DragonBets

for example going through the starting process in SB i didnt even know about such tables and reading through your faq did not clarify how you get the winning pct-s and compare them based on the ML.

edit: ok i went ahead and did the math and now figured out how to calculate winning pct-s from ML-s and vice versa

[aca]

Nice work Jay!