[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER
(playing all teams whose estimated win % is 5% or more higher in the Edgar line than in the closing Pinny line)

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Sunday, 2-1, +2.13u
(TOR, SEA, WAS)
YTD 95-166, +21.23u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Sunday, 3-0, +3.00u
YTD 141-119 (.542), +16.05u


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 SAN 75
2 WAS 67
3 PHX 67
4 UTH 61
5 CHI 60
6 LAX 59
7 HOU 59
8 MIN 57
9 DAL 57
10 CLE 55
11 BOS 53
12 DET 52
13 POR 52
14 MIA 52
15 GS 51
16 MIL 49
17 IND 49
18 SAC 48
19 DEN 47
20 TOR 47
21 SEA 47
22 LAC 42
23 NJ 42
24 ATL 40
25 ORL 37
26 NY 35
27 NOK 34
28 CHA 33
29 MEM 30
30 PHI 30


EDGAR LINES FOR 12.18.06
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)
NJ 3.9/160 over GS

NY 1.6/112 over UTH

MIA 6.3/235 over NOK

MEM 0.9/107 over SEA

DEN 3.5/141 over WAS

SAC 2.6/127 over DAL


STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-OFF method)

GS +188, NJ -135

UTH +132, NY +104

NOK +288, MIA -195

SEA +126, MEM +110

WAS +174, DEN -123

DAL +151, SAC -109

[bigboydan]

Ok Jay, How does todays events with the suspensions effect your numbers ?

[Jay Edgar]

Ok Jay, How does todays events with the suspensions effect your numbers ?

I don't have a way to account for injuries in the formula, so I ignore them -- for lack of a better alternative. You just have to be careful.

In truth, I usually like the side with the notable injuries (or suspensions) because the line typically overcompensates. Both DEN and NY had immediate 2-5 moves against them and seem to me to be good value (though they peaked about 1/2 hour ago and may come back some by closing)