[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more ML differential)
ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Monday, 2-5, -1.57u
(POR, CHA, GS, ATL, LAX)
YTD 80-139, +21.54u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Monday, 2-5, -3.25u
YTD 116-103 (.530), +7.85u

TEAMS RANKED BY LAST-10-GAME POWER RATING
1 SAN, 2 HOU, 3 PHX, 4 MIN, 5 CHI
6 DAL, 7 DEN, 8 UTH, 9 CLE, 10 WAS

11 MIA, 12 LAX, 13 DET, 14 SEA, 15 LAC
16 SAC, 17 MIL, 18 IND, 19 POR, 20 GS

21 ORL, 22 ATL, 23 BOS, 24 TOR, 25 NY
26 NJ 27, MEM, 28 NOK, 29 PHI, 30 CHA

EDGAR LINES FOR 12.12.06
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)
ATL 2.7/131 over DEN
MIL 3.2/141 over SEA
HOU 5.8/202 over LAX
GS 3.8/154 over SAC

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play SU and ATS under 5% OFF method)
DEN +156, ATL -111
SEA +169, MIL -120
LAX +246, HOU -167
SAC +183, GS -131

[imgv94]

I always like betting against the Kings on the road..

[moses millsap]

JJ and McGrady, latter definitely out, former probably. Change your thoughts at all?

[imgv94]

Like Dr.Dre said "I can't be faded" LOL...

Anyways Jay Edgar do you like the Warriors tomorrow?

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Tuesday.

On Monday, more proof that the lines do not yet account for the west-over-east gap. And more teams reverting to form after an aberration (Knicks back to losing at home, Bulls back to blowing out people at home.)

The 5%-off method as a whole scuffled along again Monday --still nicely positive for the year, especially on the ML side, but the runs of two or three strong days in a row have been rare.

In my own play, I'm developing additional filters for all the plays that the system is offering up -- but they're mostly subjective filters. (For example tonight, having lucked out on the Knicks at home last time, and feeling that the Celts and particularly Al Jefferson were ready to break out, I went the other way and played the Celts. Also played SA because they are so supremely professional and they surely would bear down against a mysteriously ineffective opponent.)

But I'm also thinking about ways to more objectively filter the large number of plays (i.e., too many) that this method yields.

One filter I've noted already is to disregard the widest gaps between the Edgar ML and the real ML. Again on Monday, the three plays with a gap around 20% were all losers (LAC at 21%, IND at 20%, MEM at 19%). But I know that it is very tough for anybody else to keep track of how wide the gap is, so this filter may help only me.

Another thought: I looked before at who the system was telling us to "play on" and with what success, but I also want to look at the "play-against" results too -- that may be a useful filter. Quite subjectively, I have pretty much determined not to mess with plays against PHX or SA unless I really like the other side independent of the method. These teams just don't seem bound by the regular laws of NBA gravity that cause everyone else to struggle in certain sorts of spots. PHX and SA may struggle, but they overcome.

There may be some other filters, too. Any system that turns a profit playing over two-thirds of all NBA games has to be refinable to spit out a more select group of premium plays -- or so I'd think.

[Jay Edgar]

JJ and McGrady, latter definitely out, former probably. Change your thoughts at all?

im, I do like GS -- already have some.

O, Hawks sure seemed lost without JJ -- I'd stay away unless the price can't be resisted. The T-Mac thing means the line will be hopping in the afternoon - all the fun may be in scalping that game.

I'm about ready for a day off ("off" being relative) -- this would seem to qualify.