EDGAR LINES FOR 12.05.06
(favorite/pointspread/ML/dog)
DET 4.2/164 over POR
NJ 1.3/109 over DAL
HOU 7.0/265 over GS
PHX 6.3/232 over SAC
SEA 3.9/153 over ATL
LAC 5.2/183 over MIA
STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML price or better, team is a 5%-OFF method play)
DET @ -138, POR @ +192
DAL @ +129, NJ @ -107
HOU @ -219, GS @ +330
PHX @ -191, SAC @ +284
SEA @ -134, ATL @ +187
LAC @ -153, MIA @ +220
Under the 5%-off measuring stick there is good value with NJ, SAC, ATL, and MIA.
The line on DET-POR is so far off that the Blazers currently fall well into the "too-good-to-be-true" category at 22% off, which is fine with me -- may make just a token ML play there.
But just like last night (with ORL and NY), a team in a great spot (GS) does not qualify under the method at this point. Line is only 2% off in GS's favor.
EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more ML differential) ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 1-3 +2.45u
(POR, NJ, SAC, MIA)
YTD 67-111, +17.95u SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 99-79(.556), +16.05u