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Picks from Mexico 1-feb-2013 :)
ATS record 28-17
Totals 13-8
Big card for tonight, letīs take a look:
Clippers at Toronto +4: This should be easy for the Clippers to cover Clipperīs is playing a nice 66.7% ATS (3rd in the league) after a win, what concerns me here is the fact that some Clippers players are still aching injuries, I see more value here playing the Over 193, Toronto is scoring and allowing more than 102 pts at home in their last 3 games both teams run a decent pace with a high efficiency %, My lean Over 193.
Miami at Indiana +2: This would be a dog fight I see this game being decided by 2 or 3 pts, too close to make a call, pass.
Orlando at Boston -8.5: Orlando is riding a 7 game losing streak and struggling to score lately, Boston on the other hand has not any ATS trend above 47%, this might be the place to bach up Orlando cause I see this game being decided by 6 pts, have to think abou it my lean Orlando +8.5.
Cleveland at Detroit -4: I see this game being decided by 5or 6 pts, also need to see how Calderon will boost detroit , pass.
Chicago at Nets -3: I like Chicagoīs spot here, they are playing a nice 63.6% ATS as road dog they are far better scoring away than at home, I see bulls with a great chance to win this SU, my lean Bulls +3.
Bucks at Knicks -5.5: Bucks are on top of the league in many categories ATS on the road, 66.7% as road dog vs 50% from NY as home fav, Bucks is 63.6% ATS away from home while NY 54.5% at home, Ny is playing 44.4% ATS after a win while Bucks a nice 68.4% ATS after a lose, my lean here Bucks +5.5.
Sacramento at 76ers: even though this should be a very easy match up for the 76ers, I found a very good value on the totals, Kings are not scoring more than 93 on the road while Sixers is allowing 89 pts last 3 at home while scoring 96.3, Philadelphia run a slower pace than Sacramento while I see 76ers dominating the game and slowing down the game, my lean Under 199.
Washington at Memphis -6.5: This is a spot where to back the wizards, what concerns me here is the fact that I have not seen Memphis with new players, I prefer to find out how they fit with no money on this game, pass.
NOrleans at Denver -7: We know already NOrleans is one of the best teams ATS , 73.9% as road dogs, 66.7% with a day off, 65.5 % in conference games, and the best 70.8% away from home, on the other hand Denver has been playing pretty damm good scoring 113.6 in their last 3 at home while allowing 101.3, Denver also has nice stats ats, best in the league 68.8% in conference games, 63.3% in division games, what concerns me here is the fact that Norlleans is playing their 3rd in 4 and is 4th game away from home, My lean NOrleans +7.
Dallas at Phoenix -3.5: suddenly Dallas is becoming a nice team ATS on the road 61.9% as a road dog, 60% away from home, 57.1% conference games, while Suns is playing a better defense allowing 90.6 last 3 at home while scoring 93, I see a good value here with the totals, dallas is on b2b, last 2 games have been fought tiill the end, My lean Under 199.
Portland at Utah -5: Utah is way better at home than Portland on the road, what concerns me here is that I donīt know if Utah already put behind that big loss vs Houston last game they looked insecure at some point during NOrleans push for the game, My lean Utah -5.
Lakers at Minnesota +2: Lakers is the worst in the leagu ATS away from home (6-14) 30%, thereīs not much to write home about Wolves playing a poor 28.6% ATS as a home dog, this is a pick game esentially, too risky to bet any of these 2 teams, pass.
Will be back later to post final plays
GLTA
mart59a gave Artieaa 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by altieriflyers
Cheers bro.
