1. 01-21-13 09:39 AM #1
    primetimej
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    Primetime NBA Thread

    Doing the ATS spread fade system I have with this site was pretty successful (over 20+ units in one month), but I realized that there were spots when I should have gone with it and spots where I should have stayed away even though the system said different. This thread will include my games that I like for a given day and will include ATS fade spreads if I feel an edge in the line. I will play sides, totals, and props, and never more than three plays in one day. Match the plays if you like, and fade them if you don't, either way best of luck to you all.
    First game of this thread is an under that I like.

    Pacers vs Grizzlies under 173.5
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  2. 01-21-13 02:38 PM #2
    primetimej
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    Adding

    Brooklyn +3.5 - 1 Unit.
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  3. 01-21-13 05:07 PM #3
    primetimej
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    One more for tonight

    76ers +6.5 (Buy half point)
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  4. 01-21-13 05:11 PM #4
    innovation
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    GL have a gander at Portland too.
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  5. 01-22-13 08:46 AM #5
    primetimej
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    For the record most plays will be one unit. In some cases, I will have a few 2 unit plays here and there and very rarely a 3 unit play. Yesterday were all 1 unit.

    For the day 3-0 +3.0 Units.

    YTD Sides 2-0 +2.0 Units
    YTD Totals 1-0 +1.0 Units
    YTD Props 0-0
    YTD Total 3-0 +3.0 Units
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  6. 01-22-13 12:18 PM #6
    thunderous
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    How come u aren't posting on the other thread anymore? BOL on ur plays here....
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  7. 01-22-13 12:28 PM #7
    primetimej
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    hey thunder,

    I just started to feel that the system was moving south, and the back-testing on it wasn't great either. I will still make bets to fade ATS big win or lose teams, but just more situational. The system was good and I'm glad for everyone that profited from it, I just want to avoid losing any followers money. As I stated above, I will continue to post those type of plays from time to time here, but more of games I like instead of just the fading.
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  8. 01-22-13 03:17 PM #8
    primetimej
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    Was hoping the line would move in my favor with the public hitting the other side so hard, but I like one tonight. Might be back on later for another, but I'm waiting on the right line. For now just one

    Cavs +4.5 - 1 Unit
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  9. 01-22-13 04:45 PM #9
    primetimej
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    Adding a prop in tonight that I like a lot.

    Monta Ellis vs Evan Turner - Most Points Scored
    Monta Ellis -3.5 - 1 Unit
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  10. 01-22-13 05:23 PM #10
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by primetimej View Post
    hey thunder,

    I just started to feel that the system was moving south, and the back-testing on it wasn't great either. I will still make bets to fade ATS big win or lose teams, but just more situational. The system was good and I'm glad for everyone that profited from it, I just want to avoid losing any followers money. As I stated above, I will continue to post those type of plays from time to time here, but more of games I like instead of just the fading.
    Yeah I would agree on that...the few spots where I didn't like the system was team with key players missing like Love for Wolves...I chased that for a game or 2 and then just let it go. Another thing that didn't work for me was the 2 unit play and did avoid any time a team was a 2 unit play. But have to say that it did more good than harm so all in all not bad.
    Will be keeping an eye here on your plays to follow so GL!
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  11. 01-22-13 09:08 PM #11
    primetimej
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    Adding
    OKC vs Clippers under 200.5 - 1 unit
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  12. 01-23-13 08:39 AM #12
    primetimej
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    For the day 1-2 +-1.2 Units.

    YTD Sides 3-0 +3.0 Units
    YTD Totals 1-1 -0.1 Units
    YTD Props 0-1 - 1.1 Units

    YTD Total 4-2 +1.8 Units
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  13. 01-23-13 08:40 AM #13
    primetimej
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    Here are my leans for today, anyone have any insight they can provide.

    Charlotte +6
    Houston -2
    Lakers +4
    Portland -2

    Memphis vs Lakers Under 188
    Phoenix Under 203
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  14. 01-23-13 12:57 PM #14
    primetimej
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    Did some further analysis, and locked in the below bets.

    Houston -2.5 - 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units
    Lakers +4.5 (Buy half point) - 1 Unit - Lose -1.2 Units
    Portland -1 - 2 Units - Win +2.0 Units

    Phoenix vs Sacramento Under 203.5 - 1 Unit - Win +1.0 Units
    Last edited by primetimej; 01-24-13 at 08:58 AM. Reason: Graded games
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  15. 01-24-13 08:57 AM #15
    primetimej
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    For the day 2-2 +0.7 Units.

    YTD Sides 4-2 +2.7 Units
    YTD Totals 2-1 +0.9 Units
    YTD Props 0-1 -1.1 Units

    YTD Total 6-4 +2.5 Units
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  16. 01-24-13 05:17 PM #16
    primetimej
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    1/24/13

    Anthony vs Pierce - Most Points Scored
    Paul Pierce +9½ Pts
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  17. 01-24-13 08:04 PM #17
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i think houston single-handedly killed your old system

    i have been playing around with killersport's nba query engine and found some very interesting interactions between ATS streaks, OU streaks and their opposites. i.e. ATS streaks affect the OVER/UNDER alot and vice-versa. much more than the ATS streak affects future ATS results. seems like teams on terrible ATS streaks go under alot. and vice-versa. which makes sense as shell-shocked teams probably slow it down and emphasize defense. highly confident teams probably play more high tempo. can't remember the exact way O/U streaks affected ATS results though. have to look back into it.
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  18. 01-24-13 08:18 PM #18
    primetimej
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    Hey Moxy,

    Ya Houston hurt, but its ok I still follow suit with the fading I just bet selectively. I'm glad youve found some other trends that work and keep me posted on how they do.
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  19. 01-24-13 09:19 PM #19
    primetimej
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    Adding one more prop for tonight

    Blake Griffin - Total Points
    Under 21½ Pts
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  20. 01-25-13 02:33 PM #20
    primetimej
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    Anthony vs Pierce - Most Points Scored
    Paul Pierce +9½ Pts - Win +1.00 Units

    Blake Griffin - Total Points
    Under 21½ Pts - Win +1.00 Units

    For the day 2-0 +2.0 Units.

    YTD Sides 4-2 +2.7 Units
    YTD Totals 2-1 +0.9 Units
    YTD Props 2-1 +0.9 Units

    YTD Total 8-4 +4.5 Units
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  21. 01-25-13 03:31 PM #21
    primetimej
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    1/25/13

    Timberwolves vs Wizards Under 187.5 - 1 Unit
    Nets vs Grizzlies Under 177.5 - 1 Unit
    Lakers -4.5 (Buy half point) - 1 Unit
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  22. 01-25-13 09:21 PM #22
    primetimej
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    Adding a prop for the lakers game, that just updated a little while ago.

    Kobe Bryant - Total Points

    Over 29½ Pts - 2 Units
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  23. 01-26-13 04:20 PM #23
    primetimej
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    Timberwolves vs Wizards Under 187.5 -1.1 Units
    Nets vs Grizzlies Under 177.5 -1.1 Units
    Lakers -4.5 (Buy half point) - Win +1.00 Unit    Kobe Bryant - Total Points Over 29½ Pts - Lose -2.20 Units
    For the day 1-3 -3.4 Units.

    YTD Sides 5-2 +3.7 Units
    YTD Totals 2-3 -1.3 Units
    YTD Props 2-2 -1.3 Units

    YTD Total 9-7 +1.1 Units
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  24. 01-26-13 04:21 PM #24
    primetimej
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    Here's whp I got tonight. I like some dogs to play good tonight

    76ers +3.5 2 Units
    Nets +4.5 (But half point) 1 Unit
    Kings +12.5 1 Unit
    Blazers +1 2 Units
    __________
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  25. 01-27-13 11:27 AM #25
    primetimej
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    76ers +3.5 2 Units - Win +2.0 Units
    Nets +4.5 (But half point) 1 Unit - Lose -1.2 Units
    Kings +12.5 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units
    Blazers +1 2 Units - Win +2.0 Units

    For the day 2-2 +1.7 Units.

    YTD Sides 7-4 +5.4 Units
    YTD Totals 2-3 -1.3 Units
    YTD Props 2-2 -1.3 Units

    YTD Total 11-9 +2.8 Units
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  26. 01-27-13 11:28 AM #26
    primetimej
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    For the early game I like a few props with no juice

    Wade vs Pierce - Most Points Scored by
    Paul Pierce +1½ Pts - even 1 unit

    Bosh vs Garnett - Most Points+Rebounds made by
    Chris Bosh -2½ Pts+Rebs - even 1 unit
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  27. 01-27-13 02:29 PM #27
    primetimej
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    Adding these two

    Lakers +3.5

    Durant vs Bryant - Most Points
    Kobe Bryant +1 Pts +115
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  28. 01-27-13 04:54 PM #28
    primetimej
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    Adding for late games

    Hornets +7.5
    Blazers vs Clippers Under 191.5

    Horford vs Chandler - Most Points+Rebounds
    Tyson Chandler +4½ Pts+Rebs -120
    Last edited by primetimej; 01-27-13 at 11:03 PM. Reason: Removed typo
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  29. 01-27-13 11:03 PM #29
    primetimej
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    Wade vs Pierce - Most Points Scored by
    Paul Pierce +1½ Pts - even 1 unit - Win +1.0 Units

    Bosh vs Garnett - Most Points+Rebounds made by
    Chris Bosh -2½ Pts+Rebs - even 1 unit Lose -1.0 Units

    Lakers +3.5 - Win +1.0 Units

    Durant vs Bryant - Most Points
    Kobe Bryant +1 Pts +115 - Lose -.9 Units

    Hornets +7.5 - Win +1.0 Units
    Blazers vs Clippers Under 191.5 - Win +1.0 Units

    Horford vs Chandler - Most Points+Rebounds
    Tyson Chandler +4½ Pts+Rebs -120 - Lose -1.2 Units

    For the day 4-3 +0.9 Units.

    YTD Sides 9-4 +7.4 Units
    YTD Totals 3-3 -0.3 Units
    YTD Props 3-5 -3.4 Units

    YTD Total 15-12 +3.7 Units
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  30. 01-28-13 04:39 PM #30
    primetimej
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    Here's who I got for tonight all for one unit.

    Davis vs Lopez - Most Points+Rebounds Made
    Brook Lopez -2½ Pts + Reb

    Indiana Pacers +5½
    Philadelphia 76ers +1½
    Toronto Raptors +1½
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  31. 01-28-13 05:05 PM #31
    esulima
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    Quote Originally Posted by primetimej View Post
    Here's who I got for tonight all for one unit.
    76ers looking fishy whats up with that line
    Davis vs Lopez - Most Points+Rebounds Made
    Brook Lopez -2½ Pts + Reb

    Indiana Pacers +5½
    Philadelphia 76ers +1½
    Toronto Raptors +1½
    76ers looking fishy whats up with that line
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  32. 01-29-13 05:02 PM #32
    primetimej
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    Davis vs Lopez - Most Points+Rebounds Made
    Brook Lopez -2½ Pts + Reb - Lose -1.1 Units

    Indiana Pacers +5½ - Win +1.0 Units
    Philadelphia 76ers +1½ - Lose -1.1 Units
    Toronto Raptors +1½ - Lose -1.1 Units

    For the day 1-3 - 2.3 Units.

    YTD Sides 10-6 +6.2 Units
    YTD Totals 3-3 -0.3 Units
    YTD Props 3-6 -4.5 Units

    YTD Total 16-15 +1.4 Units
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  33. 01-29-13 05:03 PM #33
    primetimej
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    Davis vs Howard - Most Points + Rebounds Made - NBA
    Anthony Davis +7½ Pts + Reb - 1 Unit

    Cleveland Cavaliers +1½ - 1 Unit
    Detroit Pistons +1½ - 1 Unit
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  34. 01-30-13 10:08 AM #34
    primetimej
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    Davis vs Howard - Most Points + Rebounds Made - NBA
    Anthony Davis +7½ Pts + Reb - 1 Unit - Win +1.0 Unit

    Cleveland Cavaliers +1½ - 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units
    Detroit Pistons +1½ - 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units

    For the day 1-2 - 1.2 Units.

    YTD Sides 10-8 +4.0 Units
    YTD Totals 3-3 -0.3 Units
    YTD Props 4-6 -3.5 Units

    YTD Total 17-17 +0.2 Units

    At this point I'm at best a fade. Hopefully I'll have a few good ones in a row since the past few days have been real bad.
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  35. 01-30-13 11:46 AM #35
    thunderous
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    happens....up n down part of the game. I am sure you will come back...GL!
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