[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE ML vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more differential)

ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Saturday, 2-7, -4.63u
(ATL, CHA, PHI, NY, MIN, NOK, MEM, POR, GS)
YTD 53-77 +9.76u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Saturday, 3-6, -3.30u
YTD 73-57, +11.10u

It's easy to say after the fact, but you could feel a down day for the ML dogs coming after great results on a full Friday night card of all rested teams. Too many back-to-backs seem to water down the accuracy of numbers based on past performance -- they increase the volatility (is that the "beta"?) is how I think of it.

TEAMS RANKED BY LAST-10-GAMES POWER RATING
1 DAL, 2 UTH, 3 SAN, 4 HOU, 5 GS
6 PHX, 7 SAC, 8 DET, 9 DEN, 10 LAX

11 MEM, 12 SEA, 13 ORL, 14 MIN, 15 NY
16 LAC, 17 CLE, 18 TOR, 19 IND, 20 BOS

21 CHI, 22 ATL, 23 WAS, 24 PHI, 25 POR
26 NOK, 27 NJ, 28 CHA, 29 MIL, 30 MIA

EDGAR LINES for 11.26.06
TOR 3.7/157 over IND
DEN 7.0/265 over LAC
SEA 2.8/133 over SAN
POR 0.9/106 over PHX
LAX 6.1/223 over NJ

I might as well resign myself to the fact that these numbers are going to advise playing Portland every single night. Yuck. There is a built-in adjustment for back-to-back games based on how that has effected winning percentage over the last 4 years, but (based on that history) it is a very mild adjustment for a team coming home the night after a road loss, such as POR.

[Jay Edgar]

Another busy day in other sports, so this will be the one report. (Although anyone interested can always do the math themselves from the info in the top post)

TOR is 10% off at -105
DEN is 7% off at -193
SEA is 21% off at +170
POR is 22% off at +230
LAX is 7% off at -171

I like TOR, DEN and SEA best, in that order.

GL

[moses millsap]

I disagree on that Lakers game, I think the Nets on the ML tonight might be worth a wager.

[bigboydan]

I'm not sure I can bet against the Lakers on a Sunday night home game like that Owned.