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Denver/Portland write up
12/20/12:
Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trailblazers:
Denver Nuggets:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 109.5
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 108.5
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 106.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: the two have not played each other this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 46.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 72.925
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101.25
Portland Trailblazers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 91.25
2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 99.75
3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 96
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: the two have not played each other this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 42.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 85.925
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 12.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 89.25
Denver wins 5 out of 9 categories (5 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4). I wish Denver had a little better free throw % and I don’t like their points allowed, but they have been in some high scoring games. Also while recently Portland beat a stout Spurs squad, they lost to the Kings and only beat those bunch of bums known as the Hornets by 1 point. And with not more handidly beating the Raptors, I am not going to give Portland more than 1 point for home team advantage. But, Portland has had a long rest…maybe too long. Let’s give Portland another 0.5 points. So for Denver I have them with a number of 7.75 (109.5 – 101.25). Portland’s number is 2 (91.25 – 89.25). My raw spread leaves Denver as a 5.75. The pad is 1.5 (the 1 point for home field advantage and 0.5 points for long rest). So my spread is 4.25. 5Dimes has the Denver as a 6 point favorite, so they favor Denver more than I do. So the play here would be Portland plus the points. But, this does not seem like the best game on the board today in my opinion, so I would personally avoid it. As always check rosters before making bets.
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