[sando]

4-0

[sando]

Damn Knights v Warriors Over 40.5 - finishes on 40. Eels/Titans Over 42 - finishes on 40, Griz blow a big lead and lose, Carlton should have won by 30-40 but missed countless easy shots late in the game kicking 13.20 and winning by 13 (line was 14.5). Some rough beats this w/e. Sorry boys. At least Kangaroos held on to cover the half time line (-6.5) for a couple of units. Now just need them to go on with it. Hopefully Freo belt the D's for a nice end to the w/e.

Edit - My bad, Eels v Titans actually finished on 46 points and did cash. I thought the game was complete when I checked the score (been at the pub watching UFC 160 with my mates), but the Warriors/Knights finishing on 40 and losing by the hook kind of sucks. Oh well, can't win em all.

[rzr]

Eels Titans finished on 46

[Degenerate]

Titans over won mate! big Idris scored a late try.

[Lakey]

North Melbourne are useless.

[Punchy]

North Melbourne are useless.

Same here

Why bomb it long when you have the ball and 40 seconds left

[JM92]

Don't know much about AFL (don't know nothing, obviously lool), but I'm pretty sure we should've won that Carlton play. Damn.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sando, any tennis tips for the French starting tonight???

[JM92]

My compatriot Sousa to win 3-0 was a good one today. Here are some others I have since Tim asked, feel free to input everyone, specially Sando:

Ferrer - 10 @ 1.85 (-115)
Darcis ML @ 2.05 (+105)
Parlay with Hajek ML + Seppi ML around - 130
Parlay Chardy 3-0 + Grannollers ML around + 100

I did not bet tennis all of last season but when I started in 2011 with gambling, I actually had a sick Roland Garros and some winnings overall in the end of the season. I stopped last year cause I wanted to give the Nba a "real" try and because I couldn't follow the games. Now I'm going to start betting again and I've followed all clay season so far. Also tail some guys who are really good at it. Feel free to tail aussies.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Thanks for the input JM

[garygroundwork]

Same here

Why bomb it long when you have the ball and 40 seconds left

THIS...

he just had to go short to a team mate and it's game over..what does he do..kicks to a contest.

BUT

it should never have got to that.. the game should of been iced 5 mins out

the way they choke every week isn't funny anymore

[davopnz]

sorry didnt post my serena -8.5 tip, and 6-0 correct score first set but my next plays are....


federer -8.5
lukas lacko +7
ferrer -10

[davopnz]

feds - cash it
lacko - push
ferrer - solid start

[JM92]

Also had a girls parlay I forgot to mention. It was a tail so it wasn't on my excel file and I never bet wta so I almost forgot. It was shelby rogers + burdette. Burdette already won though, sorry guys.

[davopnz]

spineless stuff from ferrer, anyone but him would have easily won that match. will be fading ferrer from here, still a little girl.

[sando]

Up about 7 units for the w/e across all sports. Up about a unit and a half in NRL, up nearly 5 units in MMA, and down 3 units in AFL. Another very disappointing w/e in AFL and no denying I am struggling at the moment. Whilst I may be only down about 3 units total on my SBR AFL plays, I am used to winning in footy, it's my bread and butter and I will be doing everything within my powers to turn things around next w/e.




NBA
Tough game today. Not sure who takes this, but I do believe they will split the two games in Indiana, so which one does Miami win? You would think today's game would be the most likely? I do believe the Pacers will control the tempo for the most part (especially early) and try to drag Miami into playing a defensive grinding type game. One small play on the 1st half under.


Will most likely have a Netball play later today for the afternoon games, still got some work to do on that one. Not sure if I'll be playing "Monday Night Football" at this stage. Tough game and I'm leaning towards avoid at this stage.

[angelo63]

Hey Sando , great work as usual , I empathize with you on the Roo's , hate playing them or against them and yesterday they did it again, talk about. Shi...ing the bed !!!!! That was a 4 unit turn around , oh well variance will bring at back in perspective tonight.
Good luck as always mate.

[sando]

NBA

2nd Half Play

1.5* Pacers -3.5 (Pinnacle @ Evens)

Wow 1st Half Under was obliterated in 5 minutes. Pacers not done yet in this game.

[nicholaswdy]

NBA

2nd Half Play

1.5* Pacers -3.5 (Pinnacle @ Evens)

Wow 1st Half Under was obliterated in 5 minutes. Pacers not done yet in this game.

They are done.................... huge loss on under as well

[Gee]

Sando, gimme a netball winner today!

[the tross]

Hey Gee, rabbitbrew put 3 picks up on Saturday. 1 win with 2 pending.

[davopnz]

heartbreaking, had vixens ht/ft on two occasions they blew a 5 goal lead and had the ball with 15 seconds left but couldn't score. so frustrating

[davopnz]

of course they go and destroy the steel in the second half....livid right now

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I hear there is good stuf in this thread.

I'm gonna pull up a chair and watch for a while.

[Rabbitbrew]

of course they go and destroy the steel in the second half....livid right now

Just watched a replay and you were very unlucky.

Looking at the games this week there are a couple I like but of course it will all depend on the lines.

Hopefully the lines come out Friday afternoon so we can get on early again!

[gopolks]

Sando, do you have any thoughts on the wnba games this weekend?

[davopnz]

Just watched a replay and you were very unlucky.

Looking at the games this week there are a couple I like but of course it will all depend on the lines.

Hopefully the lines come out Friday afternoon so we can get on early again!

yeah frustrating haha. i went with the ht/ft as sportsbet had it @ 1.83, elsewhere it was 1.50ish and sportsbet had increased the handicap like everywhere else did so I thought I was getting good value but yeah...you saw what happened!

[sando]

Sando, do you have any thoughts on the wnba games this weekend?

WNBA is not my cup of tea mate, but I do know that WNBA spreads can be beaten so easily, the lines tend to be weaker due to lower volume (similar to Netball), you just have to find the right guy to tail.

I wish Roxxyfish would come back, that guy is money in beaver-ball. Anyone know what site he is hanging out at these days?

[fitguy67]

e o g...lotsa good sbr peeps who got alienated/shat upon here have "recolonized" over there...all using their same old sbr handle as well

[ExodusNZ]

WNBA is not my cup of tea mate, but I do know that WNBA spreads can be beaten so easily, the lines tend to be weaker due to lower volume (similar to Netball), you just have to find the right guy to tail.

I wish Roxxyfish would come back, that guy is money in beaver-ball. Anyone know what site he is hanging out at these days?

Roxxyfish gone tout

[gopolks]

Maybe the betting sites can start taking bets on Grinner and her performances.

[ExodusNZ]

You think -7.5 is too high of a number in this situation ?

[sando]

NBA

Well it just so happens that I've had a bit of spare time on my hands tonight and have consequently spent more time on Pacers/Heat game 5 than any other game throughout the playoffs. I have read too many media articles and spent too much time on Rotoworld, Team Rankings and ESPN Insider and what have I come up with? - nothing. All day yesterday I was ready to pound the Heat ATS, (hoping to pick up -7) and now after considerable research (the majority of which has been pro Pacers, anti Heat) I am surprise surprise losing interest in my Heat pick. So we have played 4 games and Indiana has been the better team in 3 of those games without a doubt (regardless of the 2-2 score line). Of course the one dominant game in the series was Miami's game 3 victory, and I can't shake the feeling that the Heat might pull out another game 3 type performance tonight despite all the stats, trends and "experts" leaning towards the Pacers covering the spread. This feeling is more gut instinct than factual research, but with the plethora of stats and trends and injury updates and models available to the savvy sports bettor in today's world, good old fashioned gut instinct tends to be underrated as a useful tool. Personally I have no doubt that if you took someone with a professional sports bettors mentality and a high level knowledge of any 1 sport and asked them to pick winners ATS over a season with access to nothing but results and injury reports (basically making picks purely on instinct) a winning % of 53% or higher could most definitely be achieved. Anyway I digress, as this rant is supposed to be about game 5. So every game so far has gone over the total (2 of them way over) and yet the books continue to set totals around the 185 mark - 4 overs in a row and yet the total opens at 183.5. What does this tell us? 1. The over would get pounded (as it did) and has just come back from a high of 185.5 to 185 (where it currently sits) and 2. That the "sharp" play must then surely be the under - right? Right? I am not convinced. Sure Indiana is breaking all sorts of NBA records at the moment with their pp100 (points per 100 possessions) being higher than any team this year - regular and post season, and their offensive rebounding being just off the fukcing charts @ 40% and an improved 3pt% and etc, etc. But this is such a small (and therefore irrelevant) sample size you say. This is true, however Indiana has had these amazing stats against Miami over all 7 games this year (3 regular and 4 post season games) and to a certain extent even last years games as well. While the rest of the league has been running around chasing Miami and trying to build quick, skilful "small ball" teams to match it with the Heat the Pacers (along with the Griz and very few others) have stuck to the traditional model and it seems to be working just fine at the moment (Oh how fascinating it would have been to watch Memphis v Indiana over 7 games...). So if you just read all of this I'm sorry but I don't have a play for you, I might later, I'm trying to talk myself out of not over-analysing things and just playing the god damn over like everything tells me I should (but its never that easy is it - or we would all be rich from gambling haha). Like prop bets? Just pound Hibbert ... Anything - Over __ Rebounds, Over __ Points, Over __ points & rebounds, Hibbert - ___ v Bosh points & rebounds, you get the point. The big man is just unstoppable at the moment and not only is he playing the best ball of his career (at both ends) but the Heat just do not have an answer for him - period. He outweighs Bosh by 45 lbs and 3 inches in height and doubling him hasn't been working particularly well either considering the Pacers (normally a poor 3pt team both in attempts and %) are shooting at over 37% and the big fella has showen a previously non existent ability to pass out of the post and has been hitting West with some beauties. For 2 years now he has been in the Andrew Bynum mould (potential, hype, potential, hype, etc but not the results to back up the hype) and now he is finally starting to deliver. How many 280lb, 7'2" players are there in the NBA that play both offence and defence? Just one. Confidence is a wonderful thing in the NBA and at the moment Hibbert has it in bucket loads. If the series were to end now Hibbert would be the unanimous MVP. Lebron as great as he has been this series has not actually been as dominant for the Heat as Roy has been for the Pacers.

[sando]

Roxxyfish gone tout

Wow he really did, I just found the website. $800 per year for his WNBA picks. Actually more expensive than the 2 proven experts in the field (RAS and TSG).

He must be smoking some high quality yeyo...

May he rot in hell...

[Winning oasis]

Great write up. After disecting your post I lean even more to getting the points with the Pacers and the over. Like you said, Hibbert is playing confident and averaging 23 points a game. I think the Heat get through with the win but the way they are matching up I will take every half point I can get and try to get 8. The Heat are home and Lebron could blow up wanting to close out this series at home and the possibility of a big win is there but the Pacers have a higher liklihood to keep it close imho. Thanks for the write up, I enjoy reading your "expert" opinion. Good luck with whatever you roll with tonight.