[the tross]

Too busy counting my netball$$ and forgot to check in. Think your right ,someones on to us. I'll pass but much appreciated GL.

[fitguy67]

UFC on FX 8

1.5* Vitor Belfort (+108 Pinnacle) v Luke Rockhold
0.25* Belfort via Submission (+1150 Sportsbet)
Vitor the superior BJJ practioner. Odds are ridiculous. Worth a sprinkle.

that Belfort-by-SUB flier has sweetened considerably...i got a few minutes ago at +1833...

a nice lottery-like payout at considerably better than lottery-like chances
_____
Sando, those *'s you post represent units "risked" (rather than the "to win" amounts ur targeting), right?

[sando]

NRL

Canterbury @ Newcastle
3* Bulldogs -4 ($1.93 Pinnacle)
Not concerned with Newcastle's record at home. Who have they beaten> The Tigers, Raiders, Cowboys and Panthers - wow. The Bulldogs superior in every department, Forwards, Backs, Kicking game, Coach, maybe even in the halves. The 'doggies forward pack, now at full strength is just scary.

Kasiano Ennis Tolman
Pritchard Williams
Eastwood

and England international, famous ear biter and former international prop of the year James Graham coming off the bench. Also with Inu returning to the centres to partner Morris and Barba at FB the 'doggies backs have far more strike power than Boyd and Uate. Josh Morris is the best centre in the game and Barba is one of the elite fullbacks. Josh Reynolds has got overrated Mullen covered at 5/8 and with a better kicking game and Dessie Hassler is the best coach in the game. After a very slow start to the season the 'doggies are slowly starting to prove that they are an absolute juggernaut and genuine premiership contender. Must win game today against pretenders Newcastle. Money splashed around pre season to create a super team in Newcastle but the reality is this team is well behind Souths, Sydney City, Melbourne and Canterbury.

Canberra @ Cronulla
1* Raiders m/l ($2.10 Sportsbet)

that Belfort-by-SUB flier has sweetened considerably...i got a few minutes ago at +1833...

a nice lottery-like payout at considerably better than lottery-like chances
_____
Sando, those *'s you post represent units "risked" (rather than the "to win" amounts ur targeting), right?

Yeah mate, units risked.

[sando]

Netball

Firebirds @ Vixens

1* Over 105 ($1.90 Luxbet)

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn hate seeing you & that guy on opposite sides (bulldogs game) but oh well already took dogs -4.

[sando]

Jacare! Fukcing Boom. Easy 1st round submission. Great day so far on the MMA card. Got Vitor pending in the big one...


UFC on FX 8

1.5* Vitor Belfort (+108 Pinnacle) v Luke Rockhold - Pending
0.25* Belfort via Submission (+1150 Sportsbet) - Pending
Vitor the superior BJJ practioner. Odds are ridiculous. Worth a sprinkle.

1.25* Ronaldo Souza via Submission (-128 Sportsbet) v Chris Camozzi - Cash It
BJJ/Judo master with 13 (of 17) wins via submission, against a guy who has 3 (of 5) losses via submission.

0.5* Michel Richard Dos Prazeres (+140 Pinnacle) v Paulo Thiago - Loser
Not much known about BJJ boy Prazeres, but he is undefeated (16-0) fighting in low to mid range level MMA and Vale Tudo events. This wager is more of a Thiago fade.

Parlay

1* Rafael Natal & Gleison Tibau (-101 Pinnacle) - Cash It


MMA/Boxing

12-13 +13.74 units

[Crowing Capers]

Havnt hopped on your MMA today but bloody good work mate
Hope you keep cashing
Im loving Blues to cover and crows 1-39 today

[davopnz]

i'm seriously done....one bad beat too many. i had bulls -19.5 in the super 15 up by 22 on 80 minutes, they steal the ball off the highlanders but fumble it before kicking it out, highlanders get it back and score in the 81st minute. can't take that crap anymore.

[Domestic]

Nice call on Belfort, don't get any sweeter than that.

[ExodusNZ]

Jacare! Fukcing Boom. Easy 1st round submission. Great day so far on the MMA card. Got Vitor pending in the big one...


UFC on FX 8

1.5* Vitor Belfort (+108 Pinnacle) v Luke Rockhold - Pending
0.25* Belfort via Submission (+1150 Sportsbet) - Pending
Vitor the superior BJJ practioner. Odds are ridiculous. Worth a sprinkle.

1.25* Ronaldo Souza via Submission (-128 Sportsbet) v Chris Camozzi - Cash It
BJJ/Judo master with 13 (of 17) wins via submission, against a guy who has 3 (of 5) losses via submission.

0.5* Michel Richard Dos Prazeres (+140 Pinnacle) v Paulo Thiago - Loser
Not much known about BJJ boy Prazeres, but he is undefeated (16-0) fighting in low to mid range level MMA and Vale Tudo events. This wager is more of a Thiago fade.

Parlay

1* Rafael Natal & Gleison Tibau (-101 Pinnacle) - Cash It


MMA/Boxing

12-13 +13.74 units

Woohoo my first fighting bets this year!

Thanks

[davopnz]

am able to get under 99.5 on that tbirds game here in nz

https://www.tab.co.nz/sport/#1348

juiced @ 1.75 though but still 3 points better than anywhere else

[sando]

i'm seriously done....one bad beat too many. i had bulls -19.5 in the super 15 up by 22 on 80 minutes, they steal the ball off the highlanders but fumble it before kicking it out, highlanders get it back and score in the 81st minute. can't take that crap anymore.

Don't leave mate, your a veteran of this shit, you know things even out over time. Also your general insights are some of the sharpest and definitely appreciated. The thread wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for you. I remember what you did in "that other thread" when I was ready to quit posting because of all the trolls that had invaded this place. A lot more peaceful in here since I had this thread removed from PT.

[sando]

Fukc I love fight sports, really gets the blood going. My Vitor gets undervalued again. It was supposed to be a 2.5 unit play but I was a victim of my own research. So much hype over Rockhold, I started second guessing my pick and decided to play it safe. I did the same thing with my Cung Le pick against Franklin. Got to trust my own analysis more.

Up 3 units today on the FX 8 card. Congrats to all who tailed.

NBA Futures

To win the series

2.5* Indiana (-238 Sportsbet)
Obviously if I thought the Pacers were going to lose game 4 I would wait and get a better price, but I don't think that. I believe the Pacers have the Knicks ticket stamped and will win and probably cover in game 4, so I'm jumping on this price now. Assuming the Pacers do win game 4, then the Knicks are not reeling off 3 straight wins, no chance against a defensive specialist like Indiana, who when they are on can completely stifle you and throw your entire offence out of sync.

Cash It

Every sport doing well except AFL which is my bread and butter. Very very frustrating, but plenty of time to turn things around...

[davopnz]

Don't leave mate, your a veteran of this shit, you know things even out over time. Also your general insights are some of the sharpest and definitely appreciated. The thread wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for you. I remember what you did in "that other thread" when I was ready to quit posting because of all the trolls that had invaded this place. A lot more peaceful in here since I had this thread removed from PT.

cheers mate, i've just had so many bad beats lately, taking it's toll. going for the home run with the netball under, raiders and dogs today, cash or not i'll probably have a break until game 2 in the spurs/grizz series.

[davopnz]

trust the raiders to have one of their spineless defensive performances when i jump on them...another team that always finds a way to bend me over. bet against them(roosters) get moosed, bet on them, they forget how to tackle(gold coast, and today)

[sando]

Was very close to making a HT play but instead will be looking to make a 3QT time play on the Cartlton/Port match. The Power are the fittest team in the comp and run games out very well.

[sando]

AFL

Melbourne @ Richmond
1* Under 205.5 ($1.95 Sportingbet)

St Kilda @ Adelaide
2* Adelaide/Adelaide [HT/FT double] ($1.65 Luxbet)

[sando]

AFL

3 QT (in play)

1.5* Port Adelaide +38.5 ($1.90Luxbet)

or +38.5 ($1.85 @ Bet365 or $1.90 @ Sportingbet/Centrebet)

[davopnz]

wow 98 points in the netball, those extra 2 or 3 points were golden haha. not that it matters for me

[sando]

Arbitrage Alert!!

NRL

Knights v Bulldogs - (live HT prices)

Luxbet - Knights $2.00

Bet 365 - Bulldogs $2.25

Free money if you know what to do

[Rabbitbrew]

wow 98 points in the netball, those extra 2 or 3 points were golden

Shows the value of getting the best line.

I thought we were home and hosed and were going to cover easy at 3qrt time. We won anyway (just).

[ender749]

Shows the value of getting the best line.

I thought we were home and hosed and were going to cover easy at 3qrt time. We won anyway (just).

I had to take the bet365 line. FML.

was still a good bet.

[burkestar]

ahh i see a few others here use bet 365 too, i got couple plays for anyone whos interested in bet365 nrl league specails, (most supercoach points),,, cooper cronk 1.70, Ryan Hoffman 2.00, cameron smith 1.44, to those that dont know supercoach is nrl fantasy league

good luck all

[sando]

Bit of a turn around today. The AFL was back on track and the NRL bombed.


Great day in AFL 3-0 for +3.3 units

Horrible day in NRL 0-2 for -4 Units. (Sorry Vinnie, I was way off on the 'doggies today)

Great day in MMA. 3-2 for +2.9 Units (aprox)

Bad day in Netball, 0-1 for -1 unit, losing my first Netball play of the season.

Also hit the NBA futures play on the Pacers for +1 unit


Got 1 more play coming for later tonight - will post within an hour...

[JM92]

What are you thinking for tonight Sando? Im likely going on the Spurs. Should've gotten the - 4. Always close games in the reg. season, with the Spurs taking the only big win, but the Grizz have not been has dominating has I though in terms of FTA/FGA and OFFREB%. The Grizz beat a bad playing Clippers, and then although it was a 4-1 against OKC they did no dominate that much and had lots of trouble to score. They should get equal trouble here, while the Spurs should score easily, move the ball in and out and make way more open jumpers. Im still undecided but I think the Spurs take this one and send a little message tonight.

[MrXYZ]

I think Grizz win the series, but drop the opener. Got a feeling this could be a letdown spot after winning 4 straight games.

Surprised by the Bulldogs loss, they were pretty much at full strength today.

[ExodusNZ]

I think Grizz win the series, but drop the opener. Got a feeling this could be a letdown spot after winning 4 straight games.

Surprised by the Bulldogs loss, they were pretty much at full strength today.

Same, would of been funny tho Mason chasing Barba!

[JM92]

I think Grizz win the series, but drop the opener. Got a feeling this could be a letdown spot after winning 4 straight games.

Surprised by the Bulldogs loss, they were pretty much at full strength today.

Letdown spot! There you go, that was what was missiBng for me to take them, almost forgot that final little thing. I will make the play on the Spurs.

Sando if you or anyone else care for it, here's the regular season numbers for points in the paint:

Memphis - 162
Spurs - 166

And apart from the game where they lost by 20, and the game where the Spurs had no Duncan (which forced lots of time from Bonner, Diaw and Blair), the Grizzlies did not dominate the free throw line as well.

Also, the Spurs got 46, 53 (2x) and 64 efg% through the four games, proving they can indeed out balance the Grizz defense with their versatility and make shots against them, much like the Clippers did during the regular season, but not in the Playoffs.

[sando]

Yeah Sorry boys, fell asleep before I could post my NBA play. Mr. XYZ and JM - great insight, well played.

________________________________________ ________________________________________

NRL

Monday Night Football

Manly @ Melbourne

2* Under 36.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet/IAS bet)

The #1 rivalry in modern league, these two clubs simply do not like each other.

Two defensive powerhouses, Manly is ranked #2 in points allowed, averaging 12 ppg allowed and Melbourne is ranked #5 allowing 15.6 ppg.

Despite only allowing 15.6 ppg, the Storm have been ordinary in defence in 2 of their last 3 matches and have also lost two in a row, so after recieving one of coach Bellamy's infamous sprays last week, no doubt the storm will have been focusing on defence at training this week, as the Storm are a team who likes to build pressure through field position and completed sets and force their opponents into mistakes from sustained pressure, knowing that a solid defensive platform lays the way for opportunities in attack.

Manly as usual remain a defensive powerhouse of the competition and only twice this season (2 of 9) have they played games where the total has gone over 36. The highest single total Manly has had put up against them this season is 20 points, and that was by the #1 offensive team in the comp, the Rabbitohs (who average 26.5 ppg). Last week against the Chooks, Manly definitely appeared to be lacking in options for attack without their main man Brett Stewart, however their defence was as usual at a premium as they only gave up 16 points against the potent Roosters attack (#3 for attack) and it was actually only 10 points until the last minute of the game, when Tafua made a mess of cleaning up a kick on his goal line, leading to a last minute Roosters try.

Apart from the fact that these two sides play brutal football against each other there is the added factor of origin being just around the corner and Manly is traditionally the most prominent NSW origin club (Watmough, the Stewart brothers, Buhrer, Jamie Lyon [retired from rep football], Kite [former], Wolfman [former] etc) and the Storm (along with the Broncos) usually producing 80% of QLD's origin team and in particular the big 3 (Smith, Slater, Cronk), so bizarrely Manly v Melbourne is actually very much NSW v QLD, which always adds to the intensity of these clashes, and increased intensity inevitably leads to more energy, i.e more effort put in on defence.

Want a taste of how these clubs feel about each other...

(Keep watching, ther best fight is not the first one but at 1.55)

[ExodusNZ]

Went to lock in 36.5, line changed..34.5...then checked 30mins later 33.5!

[SlickRick1382]

Yeah Sorry boys, fell asleep before I could post my NBA play. Mr. XYZ and JM - great insight, well played.

________________________________________ ________________________________________

NRL

Monday Night Football

Manly @ Melbourne

2* Under 36.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet/IAS bet)

The #1 rivalry in modern league, these two clubs simply do not like each other.

Two defensive powerhouses, Manly is ranked #2 in points allowed, averaging 12 ppg allowed and Melbourne is ranked #5 allowing 15.6 ppg.

Despite only allowing 15.6 ppg, the Storm have been ordinary in defence in 2 of their last 3 matches and have also lost two in a row, so after recieving one of coach Bellamy's infamous sprays last week, no doubt the storm will have been focusing on defence at training this week, as the Storm are a team who likes to build pressure through field position and completed sets and force their opponents into mistakes from sustained pressure, knowing that a solid defensive platform lays the way for opportunities in attack.

Manly as usual remain a defensive powerhouse of the competition and only twice this season (2 of 9) have they played games where the total has gone over 36. The highest single total Manly has had put up against them this season is 20 points, and that was by the #1 offensive team in the comp, the Rabbitohs (who average 26.5 ppg). Last week against the Chooks, Manly definitely appeared to be lacking in options for attack without their main man Brett Stewart, however their defence was as usual at a premium as they only gave up 16 points against the potent Roosters attack (#3 for attack) and it was actually only 10 points until the last minute of the game, when Tafua made a mess of cleaning up a kick on his goal line, leading to a last minute Roosters try.

Apart from the fact that these two sides play brutal football against each other there is the added factor of origin being just around the corner and Manly is traditionally the most prominent NSW origin club (Watmough, the Stewart brothers, Buhrer, Jamie Lyon [retired from rep football], Kite [former], Wolfman [former] etc) and the Storm (along with the Broncos) usually producing 80% of QLD's origin team and in particular the big 3 (Smith, Slater, Cronk), so bizarrely Manly v Melbourne is actually very much NSW v QLD, which always adds to the intensity of these clashes, and increased intensity inevitably leads to more energy, i.e more effort put in on defence.

Want a taste of how these clubs feel about each other...

(Keep watching, ther best fight is not the first one but at 1.55)

Any thoughts on the side?

[sando]

Any thoughts on the side?

Not really sorry mate. The Storm seems like the obvious choice, especially in Melbourne, however Manly's hatred of Melbourne (despite what coach Toovey claims) usually lifts their level of play. I worry about Manly's ability to score points without their best finisher and positional player Brett Stewart, which is another reason i like the under. Also the predicted rain in Melbourne tonight (big rain - 60% precipitation predicted right before kick off tonight) can't hurt the under's chances either. Unfortunately those that jumped on the under at 36.5 or even earlier at 38 and are now watching the under get pounded; it is not neccasarily sharp money moving the line but just the standard reaction from recreational bettors towards a predicted wet weather game. If I was going to bet on a result it would be either Manly 1-12 ($4.50) or more likely Melbourne 1-12 ($3.00).

[JM92]

Your monday night football happens during my mornings lool. Tough to tail this picks!

Meanwhile, I already got Spurs - 4.5 again for my next game. It went basically as I predicted and the line is already at 5 going into 5.5. The Spurs are not joking around here, I know Zach's gonna make some of those bunnies and the Spurs may not make as much 3s, but they will be wide open a lot again, and it would not be that surprising for me if they dropped another 13/14 in the hoop. Under also seems full of value, although Im afraid if the Spurs don't get to such a fast start they might up the pace next time.

[amrit]

JM92 are you going big on the Spurs?

[burkestar]

jm should we pound spurs