1. 08-25-12 09:57 AM #1
    SortsofSports
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    WNBA Totals Calculator

    I've started playing around with modeling in a few different sports to try and develop an edge based mainly on statistics. I figured since I am a crap handicapper, but good at math, this approach would best suit my gambling addiction. Anyway, I have had quite a bit of success on hockey totals over the course of 3 seasons using a similar mindset (obviously different statistics and model for NHL). I know that doesn't prove anything, and its not long term success, but exciting none-the-less. I figured I would start a thread to track totals in the WNBA, with a model I have recently created, that will be tweaked as needed along the way. I'll try to keep a spreadsheet to track this through SBR using their posted lines as well.

    PLEASE NOTE:
    1. I am not wagering real money. I don't have an expected EV, or even data to show this works yet. Please do not tail these picks unless you are a complete degenerate.
    2. I don't wish to share my specific model and calculations, in the rare event that this works out to be +EV.
    3. I would love to discuss any work done modeling sports (WNBA or other) in this thread. I will respect the fact that any +EV system details need not be shared.

    Onto the picks:

    Tonight 8/25

    Minn/ATL Under 161.5 (Calculator gave 157.5 as expected total)
    NY/LA Under 159.5 (Calculator gave 156 as expected total)

    The other too games predicted to be the exact posted line, so there is no play either way on them.
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  2. 08-25-12 02:06 PM #2
    EVPlus
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    BOL on this. As you said, I'll just watch how your model does and nothing more.

    Alot of people think that totals in WNBA can't be won. My filters are hovering at 60 percent this season. Shame the Olympics put a major gap in the season.
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  3. 08-25-12 04:56 PM #3
    SortsofSports
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    I sense that most of the people who think WNBA totals cant be beat...well, just dont beat them! Thanks for the support EV. I think if basketball totals can be beat, chances are WNBA would be easier, more loose, and produce more +EV opportunities than the NBA.
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  4. 08-25-12 08:25 PM #4
    kobstopa
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    NY/LA Under 159.5 is a good pick, with or without calculator
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  5. 08-26-12 09:37 AM #5
    SortsofSports
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    kobstopa
    NY/LA Under 159.5 is a good pick, with or without calculator
    Thanks kob, I'd like to hear your analysis on last nights game, if you don't mind sharing.
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  6. 08-26-12 09:40 AM #6
    SortsofSports
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    2-0 last night +2 units
    2-0 for season +2 units

    Admittedly this model seems to spit out very basic averages, and there is not much actually being modeled at this point. Aside from determining Efficiencies and Pace, not much more is really happening. If anyone knows of a good source for WNBA statistics (especially one that can be imported into Excel) I would be grateful. Game by game would be great.

    Plays for tonight:
    CHI/CONN OVER 153 (Calculator = 155)
    NY/SEA OVER 142.5 (Calculator = 146.5)
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  7. 08-26-12 10:57 AM #7
    jimm246
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    Nice win bro
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  8. 08-26-12 05:56 PM #8
    SortsofSports
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    Ouch line shopping is so important. There was no reason to lose that bet. Anywhere else, or with the closing line I would have pushed. Regardless 0-1 with 1 to go tonight. The over moved with me on that one...
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  9. 08-27-12 09:26 PM #9
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    Last night (1-1) -.1 Units
    Season (3-1) +1.9 Units

    Locking in TULSA/ATLANTA Under 159 now. I think this is going to drop. Waiting for better lines on the others.

    Plays for August 28

    TULSA/ATLANTA Under 159 (Calculator 155.5)
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  10. 08-28-12 11:25 AM #10
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    Adding:

    Conn/CHI Over 150.5 (Calculator = 156)

    Still stuck dead on 149 for WAS/IND, and SA/MINN moved in the wrong direction. I will lock in the under if it hits 164 again. Wish I jumped on that last night.
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  11. 08-28-12 06:44 PM #11
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    Adding last minute:

    SAS/MINN Under 163.5 (Calculator = 159.5)
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  12. 09-01-12 10:08 AM #12
    SortsofSports
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    Season: 4-3 (+0.7 units)

    Took a few days off, but here are the plays tonight

    New York/WAS Over 144.5 (calculator = 146.5)

    CHI/IND Over 148.5 (calculato4 = 153)

    SAS/PHO Under 163.5 (Calculator = 162.5)


    Good luck all
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  13. 09-02-12 10:39 AM #13
    SortsofSports
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    Last Night 1-2 (-1.2 units)
    Season 5-5 (-0.5 units)

    Tonight's Plays

    LA/CHI over 156 (Calculator = 158)

    Conn/ATL was spot on 157.
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  14. 09-03-12 01:55 PM #14
    SortsofSports
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    Last Night 1-0 (+1 Unit)
    Season 6-5 (+0.5 units)

    Jumping on the Over bright and early:

    CONN/WAS Over 151.5 (Calculator = 156.5)
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  15. 09-03-12 04:38 PM #15
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    Adding LA/MINN Under 167.5 (Calculator = 160)
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  16. 09-05-12 05:45 PM #16
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    Last night: 1-1 (-0.1 units)
    Season: 7-6 (+0.4 units)

    Plays for 9-5

    NY/PHO Under 159 (Calculator = 155)
    IND/ATL Under 157.5 (Calculator =154.5)
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  17. 09-06-12 04:26 PM #17
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    Last night 2-0 (+2 units)
    Season 9-6 (+2.4 units)

    Plays for 9-6

    Tul/Sea Over 148 (Calculator = 151.5)
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  18. 09-07-12 04:29 PM #18
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    Last night: 1-0 (+ 1 unit)
    Season : 10-6 (+3.4 units)

    Plays for 9-7

    LA/WAS Over 154 (Calculator = 158)
    PHO/CONN Under 160.5 (Calculator = 156)
    CHI/NY Over 144 (Calculator = 150.5)
    IND/SA Over 153 (Calculator = 156)
    ATL/MINN Under 165 ( Calculator = 155.5)
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  19. 09-08-12 11:03 AM #19
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    Last Night (3-2) +0.8units
    Season (13-8) +4.2 units

    Plays for 9-8
    Tul/Sea Over 153.5 (Calculator = 159)
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  20. 09-09-12 12:26 PM #20
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    Last Night (1-0) + 1 unit
    Season (14-8) +5.2 units

    Plays for 9-9

    MIN/SA over 162.5 (Calculator = 163.5)
    WAS/ATL under 150 (Calculator = 148.5)
    CHI/CONN over 153.5 (Calculator = 154.5)
    PHO/IND under159.5 (Calculator = 153)


    No play on NY/LA, calc was spot on.
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  21. 09-10-12 05:28 PM #21
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    Last Night (1-3) -2.2 units
    Season (15-11) +3 units

    Plays for 9-11
    SEA/ATL over 150.5 (Calculator = 156)
    MIN/CHI over 156 (Calculator = 161)
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