[kevindakota00]

(6) Dallas (4-2 SU and ATS) at (2) Denver (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS)

The red-hot Nuggets aim to take a 2-0 lead in their second-round series when they once again host the Mavericks at the Pepsi Center.

Coming off a dominating 4-1 series win over New Orleans, Denver kept rolling with Sunday’s 109-95 Game 1 victory over Dallas as a 6½-point home chalk. Point guard Chauncey Billups (six points, six assists) was kept under wraps, and leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (23 points) didn’t get going until the fourth quarter, but center Nene scored 24 points, and the Nuggets got big bench contributions from J.R. Smith (15 points, six assists), Chris Andersen (11 points, six blocks) and Anthony Carter (12 points).

The Mavericks got 28 points and 10 boards from Dirk Nowitzki, but star guard Jason Kidd (15 points) tied a playoff high with eight turnovers against just four assists, and Dallas finished with 20 turnovers to Denver’s 15. The Mavs also had 11 shots blocked, including a few during Denver’s game-clinching 15-4 fourth-quarter run that turned an 82-80 lead into a 97-84 bulge. Dallas, which held San Antonio to just 90.4 ppg in the first round, allowed Denver to post its 21st 100-point effort in its last 23 games.

The Mavs shot a respectable 48.8 percent in Game 1, but it paled in comparison to Denver’s 54.8 percent shooting effort. Also, the Nuggets enjoyed a huge advantage at the free-throw line, hitting 25 of 36 while Dallas went only 9-for-13.

Denver is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine meetings with Dallas, including 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes at the Pepsi Center, but the underdog is still on a 6-2 ATS run in this rivalry.

Overall this season, Denver is 37-8 SU (27-17-1 ATS) at home, and Dallas is 20-25 SU (23-22 ATS) on the road.

The Nuggets have gone 19-4 SU (15-8 ATS) in their last 23 games and are on additional ATS tears of 14-4 overall, 14-3 against the Western Conference, 13-3 against winning teams, 8-1 as a favorite, 8-0 against the Southwest Division and 5-0 at home. The Mavericks are on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 17-6 as a playoff pup and 10-3 after a SU loss, but they are just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 starts against Northwest Division teams.

The over is on streaks of 8-4 for Denver at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 for Dallas on the road, 7-2 with the Mavs as a playoff pup and 20-9 for Dallas in second-round playoff games. However, the under is 6-2 in Denver’s last eight games overall (4-0 in the last four), and the under for Dallas is 13-5 in its last 18 contests as a ‘dog and 62-29 in its last 91 games against Northwest Division opponents.

Finally, the under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry, with the last four battles in a row staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER

[Rixsaw]

You really should give credit to your source man.