The Memphis Grizzlies may be more like bear cubs this season thanks to some bad news on star center Pau Gasol.
Spaniard Pau Gasol broke his foot while playing for his native country in the World Championship, but the severity of the break wasn’t fully revealed until recently. The Grizzlies’ season took a major offseason hit earlier this week when it was announced the Gasol would miss four months after successful surgery repaired his broken foot.
The chances of Gasol returning from the foot injury quickly don’t look good when you look at Gasol’s history. Gasol missed two months in 2004/2005 thanks to a stress fracture in the same foot, and sat out two games at the end of last season with foot pain. Somehow Memphis was 2-0 in those games, but two games don’t compare to four months.
That means the Grizzlies will have to find a way to stay in contention for four months without their scoring leader (20.4 points), rebounds (8.9) and assists (4.6) from last season. Making things even tougher on Memphis is that two possible replacements for Gasol from last season, Shane Battier and Lorenzen Wright, are gone.
That leaves Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick and Brian Cardinal to pick up the slack. Swift is coming off a disappointing season in Houston, while Warrick and Cardinal are nowhere near experienced enough to fill Gasol’s shoes.
The rest of the Grizzlies’ potential starting lineup, including Eddie Jones, Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire (coming off an injury of his own), doesn’t appear to have the same bite without Gasol.
One good thing that could come out of Gasol’s injury is increased playing time for rookie Rudy Gay. The former Connecticut Huskies’ star was a major college talent but he’ll need some time to adjust to the NBA game. With Gasol, out he’s more likely to get the playing time he’ll need to adjust more quickly.
Last season the Grizzlies lived and died most of the time on the fortunes of Gasol. When Gasol scored 20 or more points, the Grizzlies were 25-14 last season. Conversely, the Grizzlies were only 12-12 when Gasol scored 15 points or less. That’s a small point-swing, but it shows how important Gasol’s scoring was to Memphis last season and how much trouble they could run into without him.
If Memphis intends to stay in playoff contention while waiting for Gasol to return, they will have to go through some of the league’s best. Even if Gasol does return early, the Grizzlies will have to take on Detroit three times, Miami three times, Dallas twice and Phoenix and San Antonio once each during the first three months of the season.
The Grizzlies were a 30/1 underdog to win the NBA Championship according to Las Vegas odds before Gasol’s four-month layoff was announced. Expect these odds to go up once the oddsmakers incorporate the impact of Gasol’s injury.
When over/under wins for the season are released later this month, don’t be surprised if the Grizzlies’ total is lower than the 49 wins they posted last season. When you start betting on NBA games next month, don’t use the Grizzlies’ results from last season when making your picks. The Grizzlies with and without Gasol are a Jekyll-and-Hyde team.
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