[billyunl]

Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Plays:

Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

I rate the Cavs as 6 points better on the road than they are at home, so we are catching another counter-intuitive edge on the universal home court adjustment.

The big story here is that Kyrie might miss the game with a shoulder injury. Kyrie is a big piece of the Cavs, but they play as a team, more than rely on Irving. Irving’s Roland Rating is +3, which is pretty modest. Manny Harris has a +2.9 Roland rating since joining the Cavs. Look for Harris, Parker, Sloan to split PG duties. Parker has a (-4.8) Roland and Sloan has a (+0.3) Roland in limited minutes. Kyrie’s injury is an issue, but he may still play, and was talking like he will play so it will just be a bonus if he does go. You can be sure that Vegas is over-adjusting for his injury.

The Knicks are banged-up too, most importantly Jeremy Lin. Lin has the Knicks highest Roland rating (+5.4), next to Novak. The Knicks have been performing without Lin, so Vegas won’t be over-adjusting for his injury, especially after they dismantled the Magic. Amare has a bad Roland rating (-3.3), so any adjustment for his absence is too much. I would rather he not be injured, for our purposes.

Unless Kyrie plays, you will see below average point guard play from both teams. The Knicks back-up, Bibby, has an atrocious Roland rating of -14.5. The Knicks may use Shumpert (-2.1 Roland) as PG when Davis is out, or injured, which is likely to happen at any given time.

The Knicks have been hot lately, and the Cavs have been, well.. not. You can be sure that “hot” teams are being inflated by Vegas, because recreational bettors/squares love “hot” teams. I think Kyrie’s injury might be a blessing, because it is more important to people than the numerous Knicks injuries, including groin injuries to Melo and Chandler, which are very bad injuries to have in the game of basketball. I would not be surprised if one, or more, of Davis, Melo, or Chandler does not finish this game.

The Knicks must win this game, so they may be pretty tense throughout, especially if Cleveland can get an early lead. It is a lot easier to play spoiler, than be the team in a must-win situation. Especially when you have a schedule looming like the Knicks do. Their next 4 games are : @IND, @ORL, CHI, @CHI.. things are looking pretty bleak, given their decent position.

Referee assignments:

• Bill Spooner: 17-18 home team ATS record
• Josh Tiven: 21-17 1 home team ATS record
• Sean Wright: 20-19-1 home team ATS record

Charlotte Bobcats +7

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

The Bobcats are covering at a lower rate than any other team in the NBA (36.7%). That means that, after vig, people fading the Bobcats all season would be profiting 10.9%, which is not a good proposition for odds maker. You never want to have teams that are blindly profitable at that kind of rate. Bobcats lines are on auto-inflate. Again, only 1 team in the past 8 years has covered less than 40% for the season (2003-2004 Orlando Magic) so the Bobcats have a 1 in 240 shot to duplicate that feat, expect the Bobcats to cover more spreads for the rest of the season.

I see this game as a straight-up coin flip, especially since the Pistons are vulnerable and have beaten the Bobcats twice this year. Not that the Bobcats have much pride, but they are only human and will want to get one back. This will be like a sloppy pick-up game at the YMCA, 7 points is too much either way.

The Pistons shot a horrid 36.9% against the Bulls last night, and that gives you an idea of just how lost they are on offense without Stucky and Gordon’s scoring capabilities. Stucky is basically the only Piston that can get to the rim, everyone else takes difficult jumpers, for the most part.

It is also worth noting that the Pistons back-up PG, Will Bynum, is absolutely atrocious. He can’t shoot or pass, and he is too small to get in the lane, he serves no purpose. I’ll take Augustine and Walker both over Knight and definitely over Bynum. Knight seems decent, but his Roland rating is (-6.7) so he is all flash and no substance.

Maggette’s injury is also a blessing. Maggette is tired, old, and on a bad team. He cannot wait for this season to end. Not to mention he has a Roland rating of (-3.9), so he is only a liability. Maggette’s absence gives more playing time to young players like Walker, Brown (best Roland rating on the team at +3), and Williams. Players that actually care to play in the NBA, and don’t just see it as a pay check.

Referee assignments:

• Tom Washington:23-15 home team ATS record
• Eric Dalen: 21-18 home team ATS record
• Brian Forte: 17-20 home team ATS record

[Speedy88]

good luck billy

[BigDeem5]

This Cavs pick is crazy. Here's why Sloan and Manny Harris play in junk minutes so their Rolando rating is useless. I watch every Cavs game and am on the Knicks -9.5. W/o Irving they will lose by 20

[dowecheat'em&how]

thanks billy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!DWCH

[last-1-2-know]

I've only followed recently....but does ur system only play on dogs???? It seem all ur picks are dogs....