Took a big hit last night. Looking to make up some of that ground. Two plays tonight.
4U - Lakers -1 - We all know the "Fakers" aren't a great bet and that OKC is hot right now. However, that also meant we were all surprised when the Lakers steamrolled the Mavericks at home the other day. The Lakers know how to switch into serious mode on a big game and they've won 83% of their home games this season (3rd in the league). Throw in the revenge angle + Sessions + 5Dimes reduced price of +102 and you can't really pass this up.
2U - New Orleans +8.5 - It's hard picking one of the worst teams in the league, but they pulled through last night against a young Warriors team. They're only travelling up the coast a small distance, so fatigue shouldn't be much of a factor. They pulled off a HUGE win over Golden State while being the dog and now they're given an even larger window. They've lost all 3 meetings to Portland this season, including the most recent 12-point loss in Portland. However, Jack played like crap that game, the Hornets only shot 40% from the field, and Portland still had Wallace and Camby, both of whom had solid games. If the Hornets play anything like they did last night, I could easily see them stealing another road victory. These points should just be cushion.
Adding: 1U - Heat/Mavs -189 - Mavs don't score well on the road and certainly shouldn't do so against the Heat defense. If the Mavs cover, it'll be a low-scoring affair to the tune of 170. If the Heat cover in a blowout, I could easily see it being 98 - 84.
Gotta be kidding me. My gut was to take the 2H under, but I thought they won't drop off THAT much. The way they played in the 3rd and now playing in the 4th, the original under might still hit...crazy.
Added: 4U Portland -9 - Without Jack and only an 8-player roster, I don't see the Hornets keeping up anymore.
Added: 2U Blazers/Hornets -184.5 - Just can't imagine the fatigued Hornets putting up a lot of points in this one. Easy double digit blowout to the tune of 92-74.
And that's why you don't chase on a whim. I called 98-84 as a possibility and it was looking almost dead on...except Miami decided to go ahead and score 9 points in 65 seconds and finish the 4th on a 16-2 to pass the under by a bucket. Just enough to bone my original play, not even close to the halftime. Some bad beats.
Been on the road all day, so didn't get the chance to update this yet.
Terrible night last night. Lakers player like shit and Portland played worse than shit. Fortunately, Portland managed to skim the 2H cover while New Orleans covered the original line for some hedgework, but all in all in the Portland game we're down 0.6U.
Lost 3.3U on the Heat. Missed the original under by a single bucket after a huge 4Q run for the Heat and failed on the 2H play.
Lost 8.8U on the Lakers as they decided to...well...blow dick. Durant even had a poor night, yet Bryant managed to outdo him in the crappy play department.
-12.7U on the night
-12.4U in all
Looking to win this back tonight with some solid plays.
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