[billyunl]

Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Plays:

Philadelphia 76ers +4

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Well, I called an ATS skid for the Heat and it has come in spades, with a 1-6 ATS run. The funny thing is that the Heat are being blatantly inflated by odds makers, but the public is staying heavy on the Heat. It looks like the Heat are going to be odds makers cash cow this year.

There really isn’t much else top this game, we are gaining an edge because Philly took a beating by the Heat, last time out. As you should know, that blowout was an isolated incidence and does not make Miami more likely to beat this Sixers team down again. However, odds makers must adjust the line because a square bettor’s first consideration will involve checking to see what happened last time these teams played.

I would get half of your Sixers money down at +4 and then wait until just before game-time to lay the other half.

Referee assignments:

• Mike Callahan: 16-13 home team ATS record
• David Jones: 17-15 home team ATS record
• Olandis Poole: 18-12 home team ATS record

New Jersey Nets +12

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

This is a really sneaky play. Without running this match-up through my capping routine, I would not think to back the Nets, even though I know that odds makers are over-adjusting for D.Will’s absence. The fact of the matter is that New Jersey’s back-up PG (Sundiata Gaines) will get the start tonight. Gaines actually has the highest Roland rating on the Nets team at (+6). If you are Orlando you really don’t want to play hungry young players, like M.Brooks and recently-promoted forward Gerald Green, at this point in the season.

You’ll remember that the Nets are one of the teams that performs much better on the road, a full 9 points better according to my power ratings. The Magic also play slightly better on the road, but not by a significant margin, still we are gaining an edge from odds makers universal home court adjustment.

This line should improve all the way up to game-time, but would take +12 and run.

Referee assignments:

• Derrick Stafford: 19-14 home team ATS record
• John Goble: 13-23 home team ATS record
• Matt Myers: 3-4 home team ATS record

Sacramento Kings +4

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

There is another sneaky injury in this match-up. Tyreke Evans will miss tonight’s game, many would consider Evans one of the King’s MVP’s. On the contrary, Evans sports a -1.9 Roland rating, which suggests they may be a better team without him.

Boston is in the middle of a long road trip and playing the first leg of a back-to back that will end around 1 a.m. EST, and then they must travel to Denver to face a quality opponent. It wouldn’t be strange to see Boston look past this talented young Kings team and try to save their legs a little bit during this game.

This line should improve up until game-time, I’ll keep you posted via twitter on all lines.

Referee assignments:

• Tony Brothers: 13-23 home team ATS record
• Matt Boland: 22-11 home team ATS record
• Scott Twardoski: 16-12-1 home team ATS record

Luckily Boland is cancelling Brothers out, to keep this play official.

[Intwoition]

Nice Analysis - Thanks. I had my eye on the Nets and the 76ers...missed the Kings, but good call.

I also really like Indiana tonight getting 4 pts against a Knicks team in what should be a toss-up game.

[Speedy88]

I think you have at least 2 winners there.

[walv89]

I think you have at least 2 winners there.

which plays do you think would it be? just curious

[Intwoition]

I believe he means that if you make all 3 plays, you'll probably hit at least 2...correct me if I'm wrong.

[mp5070]

[walv89]

womp fail on my part. i like the philly play tho, but would probably stay away from it.

[Speedy88]

Any updates on Tyreke Evans? Apparently Xrays came back negative and there was no swelling. Can't find one update anywhere.

[Speedy88]

Looks like Tyreke will be out tonight (according to what is treanding on twitter). I still like the Kings at +4.5.

[billyunl]

Appreciate your input guys. I am away from home so I can't be around the forums for much of the day. Sorry for not being able to respond.