[billyunl]

I'm on an 8-0 NBA run.

Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.


All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.


Plays:

Indiana Pacers +9

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

The Pacers are another one of those counter-intuitive teams that rates higher on the road than they do at home, I rate them 4 whole points better on the road than at home. We are also gaining a lot of inflation because the Heat have covered 2 spreads against the Pacers this year, one by 13 points and another by 27.5 points. That makes the ceiling on how high Vegas can push the Heat line very high, they are going to rob the public blind on this one.


There isn’t much else to this game, just a grossly over-valued team in the Heat because the public loves the sex appeal that Lebron and D.Wade provide. The Heat can’t beat competitive teams, like Indiana, by 9-points on a nightly basis just because D.Wade likes to throw cute alley-oops to LeBron.


I expect this line to go nowhere but up, so wait until just before game time to take it.


Referee assignments:

• Dick Bavetta: 19-11 home team ATS record
• Bennie Adams: 17-17 home team ATS record
• Tre Maddox: 16-9 home team ATS record

New Jersey Nets +6.5

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

This was a surprise addition to my card. Most of you know how much I like to take advantage of over-adjustments that Vegas has to make for key injuries. D.Will is an over-adjusted injury because he holds so much value in the public’s eyes. If you look at the Roland ratings for the 2 key injuries in this game, you will realize how much of an over-adjustment 3-full points for D.Will’s injury is.


D.Will has a Roland rating of +2.6 points, which I valuate as 1.5 game points. Humphries and Sundiata Gaines [limited playing time] both rate higher that D.Will in terms of how valuable they are to the Nets when they are on the court and how much they hurt the team by being on the bench. On the other side, Kyle Lowry will be out for the Rockets. Lowry’s Roland rating is +4.9 and that makes him the most important player to the Houston Rockets.


Additionally, if you look at who will be filling-in for these 2 injured starting PG’s, you’ll see that the Nets also have a better back-up option in Jordan Farmar. Farmar’s Roland rating is +1.1, while the Rocket’s fill-in, Dragic, has a Roland rating of -1.3. So the Nets gain another game point for having a better fill-in point guard. You should now fully understand why 3 points is a huge over-adjustment for D.Will’s injury news.


Referee assignments:

• Michael Smith: 13-18 home team ATS record
• David Guthrie: 3-4 home team ATS record
• Marat Kogut: 15-12 home team ATS record

I got down on this play right after the D.Will news came out and the line shifted by a full 3 points. Usually lines that get kicked-up so drastically get pounded by sharps and the line drops quickly. Get this at +6 or above ASAP.

New Orleans Hornets +9

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

As you guys should know by now, the Hornets are my most counter-intuitive team according to my home/away power rankings, they rate 7 points better on the road than they do at home. In addition, the T-Wolves are also a counter-intuitive team that rates 5 points better on the road than they do at home. That means we are gaining a double- advantage from the [wrongful] universal home court advantage adjustment that odds makers apply to each match-up.


The big story in this game is injuries. The T-Wolves have 3 key injuries in this game and that is why you need to get the Hornets ASAP before this line drops any further. It looks like K.Love will be playing with a bum back tonight, which is fine because I did not factor his injury into my evaluation. However, both Rubio and Barea are doubtful to play. This leaves the T-Wolves with only one PG in Ridnour, to do battle with the 2-headed Jack/Vasquez Hornets PG. That means big trouble for the T-Wolves, I don’t even know who they will run at point when Ridnour needs a break.


Forget about staying within 9 points, the Hornets could easily win this game.


Referee assignments:

• Ron Garretson: 16-15 home team ATS record
• Tony Brown: 13-17 home team ATS record
• Zach Zarba: 18-15 home team ATS record

I already got down on this play last night, you should bet it ASAP.

[BigDofBA]

Nice write ups but how in the hell do you expect anyone to believe your record if the plays aren't documented?

I could goto any other board, register, and make a thread saying I was 80-30 on the year. What is your record on plays you have posted here?

Anyway, good luck.

[Thunders77]

Hey Man,
I like the way you analyze the game, and even agree with you on 2 of your selections today.
Thanks for pointing out the Roland Ratings, as it's a tool that I plan on using more from now on.
Nice Work and BOL on your Plays!!!

[billyunl]

Nice write ups but how in the hell do you expect anyone to believe your record if the plays aren't documented?

I could goto any other board, register, and make a thread saying I was 80-30 on the year. What is your record on plays you have posted here?

Anyway, good luck.

In my first post, I said that I can start a new record here if that is necessary.. send me a PM and I can refer you to 3 official record trackers that I track my picks through. There is also a bookmark in my profile that documents every single play this year with write-ups and a running record.

I'll link the record trackers in this thread as well, if that is allowed.

I just started posting here yesterday, I am 1-0.

[billyunl]

Here's a link to the record tracker I've been using since my original record tracker went to pot. I have 3 different trackers, all different samples of my plays this year, but all above 60%. My original tracker went to pot, so I started documenting my picks in several different places.

I just posted 3 different record trackers in my profile.. don't want to get in trouble for posting a link to them in the forum.

[billyunl]

3-0 tonight. NBA streak extends to 11-0 in the past 4 days. I'm 4-0 since I started posting here.

Visit my profile for links to my pick trackers, if you don't believe my record.

[demens]

Nice breakdowns.

I liked all 3 plays as well but stayed away from NO on a count of the injured star angle. Wolves are not all that different from last years team without Rubio. I think their play-off hopes are done, but i thought they would pull together and win this one.

Also decided to go with the ML for a small bet on the Nets rather then the spread. Bad call on my part, they were up with 2 min left and totally blew the ending.

[flyek]

good job!

[pacocn]

Nice run

[mp5070]

[LP™]

Sweet