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Why Is Minnesota Only -1.5 Tomorrow Against Portland?
This line is really weird. Minnesota is rolling right now and Portland is in a big funk. Minnesota just went into the Rose Garden last week and beat down the Blazers on their own court. Not to mention Portland is putrid on the road. I was expecting this line to be around -3.5 or -4.
Am I missing something here or does Minnesota seem too good to be true? And usually when that is the case, it means run away!
EDIT: Pekovic is listed as day-to-day.
Last edited by Speedy88; 03-06-12 at 11:05 PM.
Lately I've been fading these kind of games. Most of the times I choose the wrong side. I suck.
Apparently it opened at -2 as well. I can't imagine any type of trap involving the Blazers on the road.
I think the Blazers are over-rated.
Minnesota is in a habit of a sloppy game at home, their last game was an example, they up by 6 with 50sec, they committed a turned over & made stupid foul, 2 more fouls with jump shooters committed another 6 points swing, it was lucky to win by 1. You can see expression on Kevin Love's face said oh no here we go again.
I agree with a lot of that, but what about the Blazers? You think the TWolves can get ugly at home, Portland is horrible on the road. They have some major issues at the PG position. Raymond Felton is awful, and Crawford is a SG who has to play a lot of PG.Originally Posted by kobstopa
As bad as POR has been lately, they did seem to respond nicely last night against New Orleans. But New Orleans at home isn't much of a test. Sometimes to get out of a funk you need to just beat a weak opponent. But there is no way I can play POR as a small dog against a rolling TWolves team.
Am I the only one who thinks this line is weirdly low?
pekovic questionable for the game, think i'll skip on this one
blazers are still "the blazers" and no matter how badly they're playing, their name will get them an amount of respect
kind of like how the lakers are still -5 at detroit even though they're one of the worst road teams in the league and lose SU anyways
I disagree, the public has never been that big on Portland, and they don't get the inflated lines that LAL/NY/LAC get. For the early portion of the season they got pounded. But the past few weeks they have rarely been a big public favorite. I think the other night more people were on NOH than POR.
Everybody was on NO +10.5. Although, they only lost by 12 and Portland put up a whopping 86 points in that game. Never know what you're going to get w/ Portland, might get the team that was down by like 40 points at the half in Staples a few weeks ago.
The low -2 line for dallas at home didn't stop me from betting Dallas tonight.
Portland is just a total fukking mess. Gerald Wallace might as well not even exist as a basketball player because he doesn't exist on the road. In fact, he is so bad on the road they would be much better off without him. With him on the court, in road games, it's like the blazers are playing 3 on 5. He just provides NOTHING. No scoring, no rebounding, no defense - he is just a pathetic pylon out there, it's embarrassing
Also they don't have a point guard. Felton is garbage and is a "never was", nor will he ever be. He's lazy as hell, is fat and overweight, and makes horrible decisions on the court consistently. And Crawford is the other guy that handles the ball as a PG but he is just not a PG.. he does it because they have no one else to man the point (Crawford's ONLY position is SG. PERIOD). I thought Portland would be better. Wallace looked incredible last year but he is not the same guy this year AT ALL. And I'm very disappointed with other players on that team.
Until portland can rip off some impressive road wins in a row I'm fading them. They morph into this ugly jumpshooting team on the road and don't even go for rebounds or play D. Hell, they've kinda been that way at home lately as well.
Minny is just on a roll and I'm not too sure Portland has the mental makeup or intestinal fortitude to thwart that right now. Only way Minny loses is if they take this game lightly (or take it for granted) and beat themselves. I don't see Portland actually taking it away from them if Minny comes to play .
The coaching between the 2 teams is also world's apart. There is no comparison there.
.
Last edited by PR9; 03-07-12 at 02:45 AM.
I don't know what happened to G wallace. He hasn't been aggressive whatsoever and he's been shooting way too many 3s. Batum has been really impressive at times tho
Completely agree. People can talk about revenge factor, Aldridge's revenge, yada-yada, but the bottom line is that Portland is incompetent on the road, and TWolves are rolling right now. I know Minnesota has been shaky as a home favorite, but with the line this low, I feel comfortable with taking Minnesota.
Anything else catching your eye tomorrow? Sixers, Wolves, Rockets, Nuggets, Bobcats and Warriors all look like good plays.
there's a few of them, just have to sort it out later today.
One factor for this particular game is the situational angles for both teams favors Portland. The Blazers are embarking on a 7 game roadtrip, and oftentimes teams want to get out of the gate fast with a road win to start off the trip on the right foot. Getting that first one out of the way on a positive note when teams go on 5+ game road trips is a staple goal amongst NBA teams. There's no doubt that Portland will want this game.
Moreover, another situational angle that favors Portland is the fact that this is game #2 on Minnesota's homestand. The Wolves had a successful road trip going over .500 on said roadtrip, and when teams come back home for a homestand of 3 or more games you see a dropoff in either game #1 or game #2 of the homestand (after a successful roadtrip). This happens 90% of the time.
Well, Minny beat the Clippers by 1 pt in OT for their first game back home. Portland is game #2 for them, and they should lose this one going by this situational angle. Moreover, Minnesota plays the Lakers at home next on Friday night for game #3. Minny probably has that game circled as they lost to the Lakers twice this year (at home and away). Game #2 of a homestand is a classic letdown spot for a home team after a successful roadtrip combined with winning the first game back (which they needed overtime to do vs LAC the other night).
just something to keep in mind. and it may be why the line is low
^^ just to add to that. Remember when everyone was on Atlanta's tail after going 4-1 on a 5-game roadtrip, then came home to play Memphis ? At the time everyone was down on Memphis as they were playing like shit during that week. But Memphis kicked the crap out of ATL and it was never close from the 1st qtr through the entire game. Atlanta proceeded to lose the next home game, and had a losing homestand overall going something like 1-3.
These basketball players are human and fans forget that sometimes. They have lives outside of basketball. They have families, friends, commitments. When they go on these week long roadtrips (sometimes longer) and win alot, it is only natural for them to have a big letdown in either game #1 or game #2 of a 4+ game homestand. You gotta understand that after sleeping on hotel beds and in airplanes for over a week, especially after a better than .500 record on a roadtrip, they feel satisfied and they are happy to be home for reasons outside of basketball. They have wives/girlfriends to accomodate to. They have kids, probably shopping for gifts for their kids and giving them attention after time away on these roadtrips. They have friends, they catch up with them, kick back and relax. They have commitments , they're sleeping in their own beds at night, they have other things on their mind besides basketball
Wolves did not cover the other night against the Clips in their first game back although they did win in OT. But it's just something to keep in mind. I am positive that the "spot" for this game Wed night is partly the cause of the opening line with consideration for these situational angles for both teams .. that and the fact that this "could" be a look ahead spot as the Wolves play the Lakers next in a big revenge situation for them on a Friday night home game
Last edited by PR9; 03-07-12 at 05:39 AM.
Great info PR9
I appreciate all the great points you bring up PR, but sometimes there is such a thing as over-capping a game. The most important factors in this game IMO are that Portland is a horrible road team, and this is a classic matchup of a hot team playing a cold team. Sure there have been many instances such as the Memphis-Atlanta game that match this criteria, but how many times does it go unnoticed when a hot team blows out a cold team.
Good luck.
You answered your own question, Portland is the play.
the line indicates a coin flip as to which team will win as in the case of last night's dallas/nyk game. despite the final score the game was decided in the 4th when the knicks went on a 15-0 run to start the 4th and dallas responded with a 14-0 run of their own which determined the game. with that being said the line is certainly shady, if u think the line should be at 3-3.5 then go ahead and take portland. there are to many games tonight to force a tough call
I totally agree. But it wasn't meant to solely judge it on this game, on who will win, but rather why the line is low
Your thread title indicated that you were surprised the line was "only" -1.5 . and I gave an observation or a criteria as to why, and an observation that is indeed a fact.
And that criteria is around 90%. Teams lose either their 1st or 2nd home game on a homestand of 4 or more games after going over .500 on a 4+ game roadtrip.. almost 90% of the time (over the past 7 seasons from the source I read)
.
Last edited by PR9; 03-07-12 at 07:55 AM.
Nice to see you back PR.
Always a positive to read your analysis.
Line is at 1 where I'm betting. Wanna make a play on Minny but it really is interesting...
Just woke up, now it really looks like a trap. Line moved down to -1 over night with public all over Minnesota.
yep back at -1 ... wouldnt be suprised -1.5 soon .. guessing pekovic will indeed be starting after all.
looks like a sucker bet!!!! stay away game !!!! looks like Portland wins tonight??????
Thinking the same thing. I'm on Wolves small. I'm very paranoid about this game lol.
I think the T-Wolves win it tonight. Been too hot lately to lose it at home.
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