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Serge Ibaka OVER 9 rebounds
+105
1. I expect Serge to get good minutes tonight playing against the Lakers, as the Thunder will need his defense on the Laker bigs, especially if the game stays close throughout.
In games that Serge has played 30+ minutes here are his rebound totals: 8, 9, 8, 12, 5, 11, 13, 9, 11, 15, 13. He has reached 9+ 8/11 times and 10+ 6 of these 11.
Serge is averaging .28 rebounds per minute this year, and his playing time has been up dramatically since the beginning of the season at 29.3 mins per game over the last 10 as opposed to 24.4 mins per game the first 10 games of the season. I realize .28 x 29.3 gives him only an 8.2 reb per game average over the last ten. However, like I said, I believe he will be forced into playing big minutes against the Lakers because of their bigs if the game is close at all.
2. He has also recorded his 2 highest rebounding performances of the season the 2 games previous to his last game against Boston, where he only played 21 minutes in what was a blowout most of the game against a team that did not need him to defend bigs (as Boston had basically none). The fact that he played 21 minutes also shows that he should be well rested and ready to play even though this is a 4 in 5 for OKC. The man also slept in his own bed last night.
3. The over may be undervalued because at a surface level view, the matchups could make it seem as if Serge will be outmatched on the glass by Laker bigs. The over may also be undervalued because of the fact that Serge is only averaging 7.6 boards/game on the season and 8.2/game the last 10. However besides cleaning up a lot of Kobe bricks where the Lake show will be retreating on defense as opposed to crashing hard, the Thunder get a lot of dribble drive penetration which sucks in defenders and gives OKC a lot of offensive rebounding opportunities.
Best of luck everyone on your plays tonight.
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Originally Posted by Nyjrkm06
