1. 02-13-12 03:50 PM #1
    t-wizzle
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    Bobcats tonight: Spread and ML don't correlate

    Charlotte is up to a 12 point dog at most shops but is only in the +700 range for the ML. I know they are at home and that accounts somewhat for the lower ML but a 12 point dog should be at least +900 and probably upwards of +1000.

    Bobcats have been awful but this is interesting to me. Wonder if they have a shot at pulling off the upset tonight. The Sixers have started to regress a bit lately and aren't quite playing at the level they were a few weeks ago but they have taken care of business against the bad teams (except for one loss to New Jersey).
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  2. 02-13-12 03:56 PM #2
    moshi
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    Argh.. just when I'm about to play 76ers -11 Now I'm doubting myself...
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  3. 02-13-12 03:57 PM #3
    Pauulzcappin
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    Fukk me for not remembering 100%, but I think the ml was low as well on Chi @ NO and bulls won by like 25 pts.
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  4. 02-13-12 03:58 PM #4
    pro-style
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauulzcappin View Post
    Fukk me for not remembering 100%, but I think the ml was low as well on Chi @ NO and bulls won by like 25 pts.
    Hooray for a sample size of 1.

    The spread/ML combos for the for the bulls game were around:

    -12.5/+12.5 and the ML was -1400/+1100.
    -13.5/+13.5 and the ML was-1800/+1400.
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  5. 02-13-12 03:59 PM #5
    oiler
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    will never bet on charlotte as bad as they are.wonder how much jordan is winning betting against his team
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  6. 02-13-12 03:59 PM #6
    Pauulzcappin
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    ML was around the +400ish range and CHI was a 10 point favorite, just checked on sbrodds.
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  7. 02-13-12 03:59 PM #7
    Riceboi
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    76ers first half. And I rather just light my money on fire than bet on bobcats, don't care if then win SU tonight will continue fading them the rest of the season.
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  8. 02-13-12 04:01 PM #8
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by pro-style View Post
    Hooray for a sample size of 1.

    The spread for the bulls game was -12.5/+12.5 and the ML was -1400/+1100.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/?date=20120208



    Feel welcome to check it out, idiot.
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  9. 02-13-12 04:02 PM #9
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauulzcappin View Post
    ML was around the +400ish range and CHI was a 10 point favorite, just checked on sbrodds.
    Not sure what game you're talking about. Charlotte closed +12.5 and +1075 on the ML friday night at home against chicago.
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  10. 02-13-12 04:03 PM #10
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauulzcappin View Post
    Fukk me for not remembering 100%, but I think the ml was low as well on Chi @ NO and bulls won by like 25 pts.
    ...
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  11. 02-13-12 04:03 PM #11
    PAULYPOKER
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    only way Charlotte wins is if the game is fixed
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  12. 02-13-12 04:04 PM #12
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post

    Not sure what game you're talking about. Charlotte closed +12.5 and +1075 on the ML friday night at home against chicago.
    I'm just saying I saw low MLs not correlating with the spread and the favs cashing either way
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  13. 02-13-12 04:04 PM #13
    pro-style
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    Lol, so I'm the idiot for not overreacting/drawing conclusions from a sample size of ONE game? I actually thought you were talking about the Bulls/Charlotte game which would be more significant in this situation.

    People overreacting to such small samples is what allows for these market inefficiencies. Continue to be a square, us winners appreciate it.
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  14. 02-13-12 04:06 PM #14
    Pauulzcappin
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    Quote Originally Posted by pro-style View Post
    Lol, so I'm the idiot for not overreacting/drawing conclusions from a sample size of ONE game? I actually thought you were talking about the Bulls/Charlotte game which would be more significant in this situation.

    People overreacting to such small samples is what allows for these market inefficiencies. Continue to be a square, us winners appreciate it.


    let me know when you have a documented full season as a winner on both MLB and NBA on this forum.

    but whatever makes you sleep at night.
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  15. 02-13-12 04:12 PM #15
    Yaniv
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    only way Charlotte wins is if the game is fixed



    True that.
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  16. 02-13-12 04:19 PM #16
    PAULYPOKER
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    TeamOpen
    		HiltonCaesarsMGMStationsOffshore
    		SideMoneyTotal
    02/13/2012 7:05 PM EST
    501 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS-11
    		-12 -12 -11.5 -12.5 -12 -05
    		88%40%84%
    502 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS177.5

    		178.5178.5179178.5o10
    		12%60%16%
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  17. 02-13-12 04:21 PM #17
    FindTheLock
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    It's the NBA where anything is possible. The bobcats are terrible, but they are an NBA team and that means that they could win on any given night against any team. Huge upsets happen all the time and people are still surprised when they happen again. I would never bet on the bobcats, but to think they have no shot at winning or covering a spread is not a good mind set in this game.
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  18. 02-13-12 04:25 PM #18
    Riceboi
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    only way Charlotte wins is if the game is fixed
    the 76ers might simply not care about this game, so they lose. I don't think the NBA as a whole is fixed.

    Quote Originally Posted by FindTheLock View Post
    It's the NBA where anything is possible. The bobcats are terrible, but they are an NBA team and that means that they could win on any given night against any team. Huge upsets happen all the time and people are still surprised when they happen again. I would never bet on the bobcats, but to think they have no shot at winning or covering a spread is not a good mind set in this game.
    100% agree that's why i'm sticking to my unit size and not "going all in" on the 76ers. I will never bet on the bobcats the rest of this season, unless they are getting double digit points vs other shit teams (pistons, raptors, etc).
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  19. 02-13-12 04:28 PM #19
    jihadvillager
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    TeamOpen
    		HiltonCaesarsMGMStationsOffshore
    		SideMoneyTotal
    02/13/2012 7:05 PM EST
    501 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS-11
    		-12 -12 -11.5 -12.5 -12 -05
    		88%40%84%
    502 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS177.5

    		178.5178.5179178.5o10
    		12%60%16%
    Any strong plays today pauly, or only leans on Louisville/ bobcats spread and under as you already hinted
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  20. 02-13-12 04:29 PM #20
    Xerxes
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    Them bobcats got this! The bout to make every basket they take !! Bobcats by 12 tonight!
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  21. 02-13-12 04:32 PM #21
    grizzy
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    <table class="data" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><th class="first">Team</th><th>Open</th><th>
    </th><th>Hilton</th><th>Caesars</th><th>MGM</th><th>Stations</th><th>Offshore</th><th>
    </th><th class="trends" width="40">Side</th><th class="trends" width="40">Money</th><th class="trends" width="40">Total</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="12" class="">02/13/2012 7:05 PM EST</td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td style="text-transform:uppercase" class="name">501 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS</td><td>-11 </td><td class="">
    </td><td class="highlight">-12 </td><td class="">-12 </td><td class="">-11.5 </td><td class="">-12.5 </td><td class="highlight">-12 -05</td><td class="">
    </td><td class="trends">88%</td><td class="trends">40%</td><td class="trends">84%</td> </tr> <tr class="team even"> <td style="text-transform:uppercase" class="name">502 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS</td><td>177.5</td><td class="">
    </td><td class="">
    </td><td class="">178.5</td><td class="">178.5</td><td class="">179</td><td class="highlight">178.5o10</td><td class="">
    </td><td class="trends">12%</td><td class="trends">60%</td><td class="trends">16%</td></tr></tbody></table>
    Yeah I don't get the bet volume on the Bobcats ML either.

    http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html

    According to that site, there are more bets on the Bobcats ML then the Bobcats spread. Maybe I'm just over-thinking it, but it doesn't make sense to me that the Bobcats ML would generate this kind of volume.
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  22. 02-13-12 04:33 PM #22
    dshaffe4
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    Live in Charlotte, Bobcats are my team, going to the game, 76'ers roll by 15. Took 1H -6.5, Bank it.
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  23. 02-13-12 04:34 PM #23
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by jihadvillager View Post
    Any strong plays today pauly, or only leans on Louisville/ bobcats spread and under as you already hinted
    No strong plays today.......
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  24. 02-13-12 04:35 PM #24
    jihadvillager
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    Thank you
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  25. 02-13-12 04:38 PM #25
    forzuto13
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    I'll keep playing the opposite teams that can whoop Charlotte.
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  26. 02-13-12 04:44 PM #26
    M.W.
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    The game might be fixed. Two of the refs are Bavetta and J. Crawford.
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  27. 02-13-12 05:14 PM #27
    t-wizzle
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    taking a shot here with bobcats ml
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  28. 02-13-12 05:20 PM #28
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauulzcappin View Post
    Fukk me for not remembering 100%, but I think the ml was low as well on Chi @ NO and bulls won by like 25 pts.
    Yeah. I think I was on the wrong end of that ass kicking.
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