1. 02-04-12 02:28 PM #1
    Goat Milk
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    OKC +3 and Denver +6 and MLs Tonight. Writeups for each

    OKC ML +130 Risk $100 to win $130
    OKC +3 Risking $330 to win $300

    Spurs are one of the best home teams in basketball but I see them losing straight up tonight against OKC. Honestly this Spurs team is not a good basketball team without Manu. Pop considers Jefferson a good defender but I don't. Durant will get whatever he wants against him. Also I don't see Parker being able to hang with Westbrook tonight. The Thunder have way too much size down low with Ibaka and Perkins then you got another 7 footer in Durant. The Thunder sometimes struggle when they are outrebounded but I don't see that happening tonight as the Spurs attempt a bunch of 3's, and if you don't knock down those shots, those are long rebounds and free fast break points for the much more athletic thunder.

    OKC really got it going last night in the 4th quarter and that's going to carry over to this game. Ibaka and Perkins should force Parker into really tough shots, I see him getting to the free throw line a few times tonight if he stays aggressive but he's not a good ft shooter anyway. The Spurs bench just isn't as deep as people think when you're relying on the likes of Green, Boner, Splitter to carry you. Harden is now back to his 6th man role after the experiment failed of putting him in the starting lineup. Cook should find some open looks tonight. Duncan always plays decent but he just can't carry a team anymore at this stage in his career. He'll have his hands full tonight just trying to defend the paint.

    Denver +6 -110 Risking $220 to win $200
    Denver ML +210 Risk $50 to to 105

    I'm going to be rolling with the same reasons for Denver in this game as I did the last time. Last game in Portland was down to the wire but Denver ended up giving up a few uncontested 3's in the final minute of the game to let them lose by 9.

    Denver must go into the 4th quarter playing good basketball and preferrably with a lead to win this game because they can certainly get fatigued in the final minutes just like last time and end up losing the spread even after covering the whole game. I'm banking that they will start very fast and Portland will play from behind.

    Nene will be guarding Aldrich in this game. Nene shut down Aldrich in the last game and I expect no more than 20 and 10 from L.A. tonight. Mozgof will do his job against Camby. Camby is washed up and can no longer do anything except rebound.
    Gerald Wallace. Wallce will get his in this game. He is probably going to be guarding by a bunch of guys to limit him to 20 25. Gallinari and Harrington should both see time guarding him. Gallinari is crafty and I think he can hold his ground against Wallace.

    Ty Lawson vs. Raymond Felton
    This is the key matchup in this game. There’s a lot of competition between these two now that Felton wants to prove he is better than Lawson after saying he should be starting. Felton played great in the last game but I don't like the guy and hence I'm taking Denver.

    Wesley Mathews and Affalo at the 2 will guard one another. Both should play pretty well but I think Affalo is the better player. Mathews got a few too many open looks in the last game and I would think Affallo won't let that happen again.

    Now coming off the bench you got Al Harrington, Andre Miller (former Blazer), Rudy Fernadez (former Blazer), and Birdman. With Batum injured Crawford is the only highlight from the Blazers bench. I think Crawford could drop 20 but the rest of Portlands bench are scrubs.

    The main thing for Denver is controlling the defensive rebounds Portland are only dangerous when they get a lot of second chance points so everyone is going to need to box out. At the pace Denver wants to play Portland should not be able to win this game by DD.
    Last edited by Goat Milk; 02-04-12 at 02:32 PM.
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  2. 02-04-12 02:33 PM #2
    iam5011
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    I appreciate the write-up.. I also see OKC beating the Spurs tonight.. took them in my four team parlay
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  3. 02-04-12 02:39 PM #3
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by iam5011 View Post
    I appreciate the write-up.. I also see OKC beating the Spurs tonight.. took them in my four team parlay
    no problem. good luck. i'm pretty confident about OKC.
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  4. 02-04-12 02:48 PM #4
    iam5011
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    same here.. also going with the Knicks (who I am a little nervous about, despite being against the Nets), Mavericks and Clippers
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  5. 02-04-12 02:49 PM #5
    theone78
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    mongov our for denver.. and denver on b2b2b2.. and portland at home on a saturday night with that crowd . i would be shocked if portland loses tonight
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  6. 02-04-12 02:53 PM #6
    innovation
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    Okc leads the league in opponents 3 point % on the road allowing 29%. The spurs rely heavy on points beyond the arch. Okc weakness is stoping teams from getting points in the paint. Tonight matches up both #1 power ranked teams at home and away. If spurs don't find a way to get points in the paint then it might be tough for them to get a win tonight.

    As far as Denver goes I question a lot teams going to portland one site suggest their home court advantage is that of 10.6 points. Denver will need 4 quarters of running to pull this off and maybe they can but I'm laying off. Gl
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  7. 02-04-12 02:54 PM #7
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by theone78 View Post
    mongov our for denver.. and denver on b2b2b2.. and portland at home on a saturday night with that crowd . i would be shocked if portland loses tonight
    then koufus should start. either way Nene will be guarding Aldrich tonight. I don't look at the fatigue issue for teams that have 10-11 man rotations like denver. if its down to the wire in the 4th, blazers have the advantage there thats why i need denver to start quick.
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  8. 02-04-12 02:55 PM #8
    Goat Milk
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    thanks innovation. good luck. I'm more confident in OKC than Denver but I can't resist
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  9. 02-04-12 03:12 PM #9
    sportfan
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    Books giving out free money , WTF OKC +3 ? they may be tired but still faster than them old spurs
    Best of luck Goat!
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  10. 02-04-12 03:13 PM #10
    No coincidences
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    Does the thought even cross your mind about how weird it is you're getting OKC at that number?
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  11. 02-04-12 03:26 PM #11
    sportfan
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    Nocoin likes the spurs , its sharp play right?
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  12. 02-04-12 03:29 PM #12
    t-wizzle
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    GL Goat but i will be on the other side for both.
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  13. 02-04-12 03:32 PM #13
    jcygts6
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    I like the Denver pick +6
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  14. 02-04-12 03:34 PM #14
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportfan View Post
    Nocoin likes the spurs , its sharp play right?
    Never said it was a "sharp" play. Those don't exist. Sharp plays = winning plays, and no one knows that until after the game.

    I'm just saying that there's no real reason for OKC to be +3 here. Game should be a PK.
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  15. 02-04-12 03:34 PM #15
    sportfan
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    Utah -2 also
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  16. 02-04-12 03:39 PM #16
    sportfan
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    Yep.. weird lines , books make errors sometimes
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  17. 02-04-12 03:48 PM #17
    PR9
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    GM, you had a long write-up and a thread guaranteeing Denver would beat them last time in Portland. Blazers covered winning by 9

    Im wondering if Denver got to Portland very late this morning. The Lakers flew into Utah at 4am and checked into their hotel at 5am. Did the storm affect Denvers travel plans as well
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  18. 02-04-12 03:54 PM #18
    PR9
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    And you still call him Aldrich, just like your last write up a month ago.

    His name is Aldridge


    and lol that camby cant do anything but rebound, he has been an excellent defender. And he was key in stopping denver penetrations in the 4th qtr in the last matchup. Lawson tried on a few occasions to go inside off a Pick and roll and screens, and when he saw Camby move quickly into position, he went OOPS - leading to mistakes , turnovers and bad low-percentage awkward shots that missed

    Batum being injured and out could hurt them. That I agree with.
    .
    Last edited by PR9; 02-04-12 at 03:59 PM.
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  19. 02-04-12 04:02 PM #19
    innovation
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    Why would it be pick em?

    Spurs next to Portland this year have earned the the second highest he court advantage. The problem is spurs have not played a team of this caliber at home I have spurs -2.6 so giving the fact that they could have a 9 point home advantage I would say the line could be much higher if books really wanted to bait thunder bettors and knew spurs would win.
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  20. 02-04-12 04:25 PM #20
    true blue 26
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    Batum (knee) will play against Denver on Saturday, Oregonian writer Joe Freeman reports.
    Spin: Batum missed two games with the injury, but he should be close to full strength for Saturday.
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  21. 02-04-12 04:26 PM #21
    beerman2619
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    Denver on the third game of a back to back to back Portland rolls in this one.
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  22. 02-04-12 04:29 PM #22
    theone78
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    books totaly disrespect teams on b2b games thats why spurs are 3 and they are another overvalued team. vegas dont get the fact that spurs arent even that good anymore. i dont think this wil be easy for okc though sat night games on the road in nba arehard ones to win always sellouts, people off next day so they get hammered ta the games wich makes a ruckus crowd.
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  23. 02-04-12 04:38 PM #23
    cleaveland
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    Dick Bavetta's reffing the OKC game, definitely cause for concern.
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  24. 02-04-12 04:57 PM #24
    b33r
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    i'm laying my money with the spurs tonight...
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  25. 02-04-12 05:31 PM #25
    jonathon1995
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    I won 2 bets this week shipping it on Spurs in the 2nd half, I think one was Atlanta and cant remember the other one, so I'm waiting til halftime, hoping one team is winning by 15 then ship it on the team losing. It works twice this week for big money.
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  26. 02-04-12 09:28 PM #26
    GoBlue77
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    hope u at least split but taking OKC was pure insanity. they had a hard fought comeback on a back to back last night and the spurs don't lose at home

    i read the writeups and although good insight, rebounding, and matchups, etc have zero factor in the nba, just boils down to who wants it more that night and who is tired....aka motivation. you picked two teams in really bad spots.
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  27. 02-04-12 09:45 PM #27
    PR9
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    hope u at least split but taking OKC was pure insanity. they had a hard fought comeback on a back to back last night and the spurs don't lose at home

    i read the writeups and although good insight, rebounding, and matchups, etc have zero factor in the nba, just boils down to who wants it more that night and who is tired....aka motivation. you picked two teams in really bad spots.
    +100

    and that's why I went the other way on both games, including 1H bets that will cash (well still 7 mins left in 1H with Blazers, up by 13 now and have to cover -2.5). But just HORRIBLE spots for both teams there, and great spots for the other teams, that usually overrides anything else - I don't care if you write up a 25 page matchup report
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  28. 02-04-12 10:48 PM #28
    YouHave2outs
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    solid writeup comedy. per usual. are you still updating ur nba thread record on monday?
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  29. 02-04-12 11:10 PM #29
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by YouHave2outs View Post
    solid writeup comedy. per usual. are you still updating ur nba thread record on monday?


    This thread is a prime example of why you suck and noone takes you seriously, Ghost. You're such a know it all that once you hopped on a bandwagon you can;t even convince yourself to hop off. Its called learning a lesson. Maybe if a team you think is hot shit keeps losing and losing and losing, maybe its not really that hot of a shit and you should stop betting on it?
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  30. 02-05-12 05:12 AM #30
    Speedy88
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    horrible picks. anyone knew that denver was in a horrible spot and the public was all over OKC yet the line moved the opposite way.
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  31. 02-05-12 08:52 AM #31
    PR9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post

    horrible picks. anyone knew that denver was in a horrible spot and the public was all over OKC yet the line moved the opposite way.
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  32. 02-05-12 09:06 AM #32
    PR9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post

    Also I don't see Parker being able to hang with Westbrook tonight.
    Parker had 42 points on "over" 50% shooting, and he also set a franchise record for assists last night.

    Westbrook had just 18/6

    Moreover, Parker had ZERO turnovers, Westbrook had 3. It was total domination by Parker in this matchup. It wasn't even close.

    The Thunder have way too much size down low with Ibaka and Perkins then you got another 7 footer in Durant. The Thunder sometimes struggle when they are outrebounded but I don't see that happening tonight.
    Spurs out rebounded the Thunder overall, and had 11 offensive boards to the Thunder's 7
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