I have SEA with a lineoff of 5 pts, which puts them in a bad spot. My season records show HF with a lineoff of less than 10 pts with a 15-29 ATS disadvantage (lineoff between 5 and 10: 8-16 ATS).
LA +1
LA 1H +0.5
The differences between teams in the WNBA are much bigger than in the NBA. Last night the two higher seeds took care of business on the road. Today should be no different. SEA will challenge LA (having beaten them 2-1 during the season), but CON should more or less blow out WAS. Of the four teams in action tonight, WAS is the least likely to find that extra 'playoff' gear.
CON -3
CON 1H -1.5
CON 1Q -1
Leaning strongly towards the OVER 148 for the LA game, based on season records (14-5 in this total range; 13-5 in the lineoff range), but this is the playoffs and I expect LA to step it up on defense. Have to check who the refs are (for FT's), and how many shots LA and SEA took in their previous encounters.
You're right about LA. I went to see one of their games last week, against Sacramento, and the defense was impressive. I had a 71.5-58 forecast and the game ended 69-58, but that was the home stretch, which offers some of the best motivational angles of the season. Why did it have to be so short?!
As always, monitor 2H plays for some of the easiest money.
Last night, SAC shot 63% at halftime, and HOU only 31%.
HOU covered 2H with ease!
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