some of these first round game 1 matchup lines seem a little out of whack here IMHOO

Perry's Perspective: August 17, 2006

WNBA playoff fever

They got next.

You don’t hear much about the WNBA these days – nothing good, at least. You may recall last month’s All-Star game and the way it ended: with a series of players attempting to dunk the basketball. The usual gang of talking heads had a field day with that one, ridiculing the women for trying to play like men. Otherwise, the WNBA has been largely silent in its 10th season. Maybe not enough of its players have posed nude this year.

As far as handicappers are concerned, no nudes is good news. The WNBA lines are so soft, you could use them to polish your car. And it just so happens that the playoffs begin this week. Here’s a preview of what’s on tap for Friday’s matchups, pitting the No. 1 seed against the No. 4 seed in either conference.

Connecticut Sun (-3) at Washington Mystics

The Sun are once again the class of the Eastern Conference, recording the best record in the league at 26-8 straight up and cashing in at a profitable 19-14-1 ATS clip. All five of their starters were named to the All-Star team. However, there is already concern about the Sun’s health. Guard Katie Douglas, who had an MVP-quality season (16.4 points per game, 42.2 percent from downtown), will be playing with a strained right calf muscle. Douglas was a menace against Washington in the regular season, so the Mystics will be more than happy if her deadly 3-point shot has a little less jump in it.

Washington has been playing .500 basketball for the past three seasons. The Mystics were 18-16 SU and 19-15 ATS this year, pairing the league’s second-best offense (80.8 points per game) with one of the worst defenses (78.1 points). That’s a recipe for a big batch of OVERS: 22 of them, more than anyone else in the WNBA. This series should provide more of the same. The Mystics are going to get flattened in the paint by the imposing Connecticut frontcourt, which features the great Nykesha Sales and all 7-foot-2 of Margo Dydek. Washington may be best served to focus on harassing Douglas at the perimeter; former Dukie Alana Beard is a solid defender as well as a prolific scorer (19.2 points).

The 1-2 format of this best-of-three series gives the Mystics a chance to steal this game. Washington only lost four games at home all season, and coach Richie Adubato plays it smart with halfcourt sets that take advantage of Beard’s ample skill set. Just don’t expect the Mystics to do much once they get to the Mohegan Sun.

Los Angeles Sparks (+1) at Seattle Storm

These are two quality franchises with two of the best players ever to lace them up at center: Lisa Leslie for the Sparks and Lauren Jackson for the Storm. They have three league championships and three league MVP awards between them. But while Leslie’s Sparks have returned to their familiar winning ways (25-9 SU, 19-15 ATS), Jackson has struggled with the dreaded plantar fasciitis, and the Storm limped into the postseason at 18-16 SU and 19-19 ATS. It’s a shame Jackson isn’t in top form, because there isn’t anything better in the WNBA than watching Jackson and Leslie do battle.

Giving the Sparks a point in this situation is like giving Laila Ali a free swing at your face. All of Seattle’s Big Three are playing hurt. In addition to Jackson, guards Sue Bird (foot) and Betty Lennox (knee) are on the mend. They’re not the only ones in the Seattle infirmary, either. This battered Storm squad closed the regular season with double-digit losses to both San Antonio and Houston. It’s unreasonable to expect they’ll do much better against the Western Conference champions.

Los Angeles is back to playing elite basketball after one year in the doldrums. Joe “Jellybean” Bryant has worked wonders in his first year as the coach of the Sparks, and point guard Temeka Johnson (eight points, five assists per game) has settled in quite nicely after garnering Rookie of the Year honors last year with the Mystics. And where the Storm have been stripped of their depth, the Sparks have the luxury of bringing two-time Naismith College Player of the Year Chamique Holdsclaw off the bench. Holdsclaw (15 points, six boards in 29 minutes per game) can still punish opponents in her reduced role. And Lisa Leslie is, well, Lisa Leslie. She’s a near-lock to earn her third MVP award after reaching the 20-ppg mark for the first time in her career. A third WNBA title may also be in the works.

If you have any questions/suggestions, please email them to Michaelp@Betwwts.com.