[innovation]

New to forum but not to handicapping. I will start posting and tracking plays in here.

I am seeing some line that are just off and decided to list em here while I weed out my plays


Clevland -5 I have it as pick em. Interesting to see all the love for the Cav's. Could it be that the books are getting what they wanted? Crazy as it sounds Nets have played allowed average less points against last 5 than Cav's. Assuming most realize Nets have won 3 of last 4 against Celvaland and have covered 5 of 6 at Clevaland. This line makes is really suggesting Clevaland is the play but is it?????

Hornets +4 Bad spot for magic??? maybe but Hornets are looking for their second home win and have won 3 staright against orlando and are 5-0 ats the last five meetings. I have the Magic by -10 to -13. on normal rest that is. Magic have not losss twice in a row this year. Perception is everything so I am watching %.

Hawks -6.5 Opened at -5.5. While I have noticed the only hope this year for books against detriot is to go fishing and many lines are just plain off looking to bait those who judge lines. I have Hawks by -8.5 to -9.5 so although the line is rising why even bother to open it so low???? I dont have the stones to bet a crap team like Detriot but I will stay away from hawks here as well.

Washington +9.5 Really? Coaching change and a Su win vs another bottom feeder team and now wizards go to visit a team that should be pissed off and has dominated at home until Milwakee upset them (which I was on ML). I have Rockets by 16.5 to -19.5 so either I am swallowing the hook or somehting is rotten. I hope its the later. Kinda liking Wizards and the point here.


GS +4 For all those who got caught by taking them against memphis I assume will just stay away form this game. I have OKC -7.5 to -8.5 and I see no reason at all for this line to allow thunder bettors who wanna build them into a parlay to be the benificiary of less vig. I am bothered that Warriors have covered they last 4 ats and are 3 -1 su last 4 at home but this has to be to good to be true.

I am liking Pacers ML and Jazz ats as well.

I will finalize card later.

[KNJPA]

I really like Washington and Hawks. Like you stated that CLeveland line is very tricky I was leaning NJ until i saw all the action coming in might just stay away

[alamo]

Good stuff innovation. Best of luck with SBR

[freakydave]

New to forum but not to handicapping. I will start posting and tracking plays in here. I am seeing some line that are just off and decided to list em here while I weed out my plays Clevland -5 I have it as pick em. Interesting to see all the love for the Cav's. Could it be that the books are getting what they wanted? Crazy as it sounds Nets have played allowed average less points against last 5 than Cav's. Assuming most realize Nets have won 3 of last 4 against Celvaland and have covered 5 of 6 at Clevaland. This line makes is really suggesting Clevaland is the play but is it????? Hornets +4 Bad spot for magic??? maybe but Hornets are looking for their second home win and have won 3 staright against orlando and are 5-0 ats the last five meetings. I have the Magic by -10 to -13. on normal rest that is. Magic have not losss twice in a row this year. Perception is everything so I am watching %. Hawks -6.5 Opened at -5.5. While I have noticed the only hope this year for books against detriot is to go fishing and many lines are just plain off looking to bait those who judge lines. I have Hawks by -8.5 to -9.5 so although the line is rising why even bother to open it so low???? I dont have the stones to bet a crap team like Detriot but I will stay away from hawks here as well. Washington +9.5 Really? Coaching change and a Su win vs another bottom feeder team and now wizards go to visit a team that should be pissed off and has dominated at home until Milwakee upset them (which I was on ML). I have Rockets by 16.5 to -19.5 so either I am swallowing the hook or somehting is rotten. I hope its the later. Kinda liking Wizards and the point here. GS +4 For all those who got caught by taking them against memphis I assume will just stay away form this game. I have OKC -7.5 to -8.5 and I see no reason at all for this line to allow thunder bettors who wanna build them into a parlay to be the benificiary of less vig. I am bothered that Warriors have covered they last 4 ats and are 3 -1 su last 4 at home but this has to be to good to be true. I am liking Pacers ML and Jazz ats as well. I will finalize card later.

I am sorry but I am not getting the logic here you have calculated your own lines for the Hawks Rockets & OKC & have them higher than the books so they must be traps????
Most cappers would see value in those 3 favs given the lines you project but you don't trust your own numbers?

[innovation]

If it isnt obvious I am terrible at grammar, puntuation, stence structure, and proof reading. So for those who attempt to read bare with me.

knjpa and alamo thanks and BOL

Freaky I get that question alot and belive me its how I have bet for years. While I may be the only guy getting caught by the books on crap teams I also hit hard when I correctly spot a lemon.

For example I had Milwakee ML weds for a sizable amount because my line for houston was -9 to -12 and the books had it at -4.5. Way to small for a team winning 7 straight.

I look at the books lines like marketing. Its all how they package it and sell it to the public.

[Bones33]

Interesting...how has this method worked for you? It's quite unorthodox for someone to fade their own lines lol

[innovation]

Unorthodox or thinking outsdie the box. Its all in the eye of the beholder.

Final Card each play is for 1 unit.

Posted
YTD 0-0

Hornets ML +155
Wizards +9
Jazz ML +190
Warriors +4

GL

[BigDeem5]

Cavs game is for the reason Brooks/Humphries could be out due to Achilles and stomach virus injuries.

[jabro21]

ur a square sharp? i do the same thing. with you on a lot of the logic tonight

[freakydave]

If it isnt obvious I am terrible at grammar, puntuation, stence structure, and proof reading. So for those who attempt to read bare with me. knjpa and alamo thanks and BOL Freaky I get that question alot and belive me its how I have bet for years. While I may be the only guy getting caught by the books on crap teams I also hit hard when I correctly spot a lemon. For example I had Milwakee ML weds for a sizable amount because my line for houston was -9 to -12 and the books had it at -4.5. Way to small for a team winning 7 straight. I look at the books lines like marketing. Its all how they package it and sell it to the public.

Look
that's all well & fine.Most systems for estimating a line(if they are of any value)will be correct up to or more than 60% of the time -that means they are still wrong up to 40% of the time.When you bet a line because your estimate shows you value your saying it's in the 60% & when you fade your own estimate your saying it's in the 40%. In the case of of the Hawks game your estimate matches the public sentiment so you are fading your own estimate & the public because you think the book is drawing people in with a small opening line.
-If it's working for you keep doing it but unless you can show me a large sample space (with a winning % higher than53%)I think your just reading tea leaves.Trying to interpret the signals the books give off is a good way to damage your bankroll.

[freakydave]

So from your final card 1W 3L not your best day
FTR I had Hawks-6 Hou -9.5 OKC-4