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Utah -2 vs Dallas opening line.
Utah has been amazing at home this year and Dallas is 2-5 on the road (only wins coming at Boston and at Detroit)
Dallas is also coming off a b2b with Utah rested. Teams that go into Utah on a b2b have a very hard time for obvious reasons.
Does anyone else find this line a little low ? I expected Utah to be favored a little more on the opening line.
Probably safer with the Under here.
Reminiscent of the OKC/Celtics line the other day except the Jazz are the home team and OKC wasn't. Once again you gotta ride the winning team at the moment. Jazz -2
I think it should be closer to Jazz -5! Jazz have the ability to pump the Mavs who are in a tough spot, 3rd game of a 4 game road trip and a b2b
Jazz -5 would make Dallas around -2 at home which is too short.Originally Posted by SaffaCappa
Line is about right but will not close at -2. I will be on the Jazz.
Afraid Utah is going to be 'too square'
I feel like BW would come and say...
Uta is Very Square
Mavericks+2.5
Like the Thunder when they spanked the Celtics in Boston the other night?
Utah are playing good ball, at home against a pretty old Mavericks team playing b2b.
I'll take my chances this is a trap and roll with Utah
Metagaming going on in this thread. I'm suspicious of this one being a trap game as well. Gonna wait till tomorrow and follow the line movement and # of bets for UTA.
I feel like BW would come and say...
Uta is Very Square
Mavericks+2.5
Agreed!
don't waste your time. If BW doesn't post tomorrow then go Utah. If he posts dallas +2.5 (or whatever Dallas + the line is), then we know what to do.
plain and simple.
Ever heard of he "KISS method" ? The guy does this in his sleep. What's amazing is this is so easy for him. I know that by now.
It always comes very easy for the true geniuses.
what if dad is on Utah?
Mavs had a tough game with clippers and lost, Vince carter is injured, Utah strong at home, will go for Utah - *whatever points* for sure
Aside from yesterday he doesn't bet short favorites all that much. His picks generally are medium to heavy favorites. He'll likely be on either miami or houston tomorrow I'm guessing
If by some chance there's a clash between BW and DAD, I'd have to go with BW just going by BW's track record last year and in the past vs Dad's. I think BW is a much more seasoned pro and sharp (not taking anything away from DAD as he has been astounding as well - I've never been on a run like that).
Moreover, imo it's a lot harder to do what BW has been doing. Lately a lot more favorites have been covering compared to underdogs covering, and despite all odds BW has been drilling underdogs like nobody's business.
One is a favorites bettor, the other is an underdog bettor. It takes more capping ability to nail underdogs the way BW is doing imo.
On the road, Dallas is 2-5 SU, but 4-3 ATS, and 10-5 ATS overall. Of those five road losses, three of them were decided by a 3 point shot in the final seconds of the game (89-91 @LAC, 70-73 @LAL, 102-104 @OKC) and they were dogs in two of these games. This Mavs team is actually a very good road team, that's had some heartbreaking losses at the buzzer. They're a better team than the Jazz, overall, and under normal circumstances (not on a B2B), the Mavs should probably be a small fave in this game of -1 or so. So when you factor in playing the second half of the B2B at elevation, Jazz -2 seems like a pretty fair line for this game. By that, I mean if this game was played 100 times, the teams would be comparable at this number.
In a one-off situation though, it's hard not to like the Jazz at this number to take advantage of the Mavs. Jefferson/Millsap/Favors are relentless inside, and given how hard the Mavs had to work tonight, maintaining energy for 48 minutes is a tall order to repeat.
To add to that. I didn't mean to say that BW can't cap favorites. I'm pretty certain that if we were to see his nightly card, we would be in total shock at his success rate (not that we're not totally amazed as it is). Guaranteed, BW is raping books.
Now I can't speak for him, but I think BW receives enjoyment in posting his underdog plays and watching how easy they're hitting on almost a nightly basis. What i mean by that is, you don't see people calling out DAD for his picks calling him "stupid", or saying things like "that's the stupidest sports bet in the history of sports betting", etc etc. BW receives a lot of vitriol from people on this board, DAD doesn't, because DAD's picks aren't nearly as shocking..
I believe BW gets a lot of satisfaction from shutting people up with his genius. I really do. He enjoys the "shock value". And that's why he doesn't reveal all (or even half or even a quarter) of his plays. Just the ones that nobody believes can come through
If both Dad and BW are on the same team tomorrow, I'll probably tail them with a 10 unit wager (which would be my biggest of the year).
Is there any official / unofficial record for BW- either this year or last? Sorry if its a dumb question, I'm new to this place.
And ya PR9 your probably right about waiting to hear from BW before placing any bets on DAL@UTA - I know I will.
Amen brother
Edit: Meant to quote Speedy88 above me.
You're your own person. but that might be the worst thing you can do. This is a marathon, not a sprint.
- here's something i found elsewhere.
GAMBLING 101 - LAWS and BY-LAWS
NEVER put all your nest eggs in one basket and leave them unattended expecting them to hatch! Do your own HW and put some time and effort into your own plays! NEVER blow your load all over one game! This is a marathon and NOT a sprint to the finish line! We are NOT gonna find one beauty and stay married to her! In fact, we are gonna walk down the hill and fuk-em-all!
NEVER chase lost money! She's gone so let her go you damn stalkers! Manage your money and games accordingly! Have a predetermined game plan so you are ALWAYS shooting from the hip and holster at all times! Sometimes it may be with both guns blazing but NEVER shoot from your ass with one eye opened!
NEVER bet what you cannot afford! NEVER rob Peter to pay Pauly! NEVER count a game over until the clock has expired! NEVER dwell on exgf's because there are more out there that need poundings! Move forward and stay focused!
ALWAYS expect the worst that can possibly happen! Anything truly is possible! Back door covers have been robbing many blind! The moose has been on the loose and fukin many from the behind lately!
ALWAYS treat people kindly and fairly! KARMA is a real motha fuker in this game! Be patient, disciplined, organized, and prepared! NEVER go home mad!
ALWAYS be prepared for the dark clouds and storms to roll in but enjoy the sunny days while you can!
NEVER just post criticizing negative comments about someone else's well researched, well documented, and well prepared hw unless you can support your side with valid facts and information! They have spent numerous hours in an attempt to better us all financially so we can keep milkin' our individual cash cows!
NEVER be an asshole just because you can! ALWAYS try to support your opinion with valid reasons and not just an opinion.
Good luck all !!!
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Jazz wont be too square because people will bet Dallas and the points.
no doubt about it.
I locked in Jazz yesterday.
Wish Dallas would have won....would have felt alot better had they pulled that off.
Losing two straight buzzer beaters must suck though.
The books take the bets consensually. You can't rape the willing. I'm sorry but I can't stand seeing that word used incorrectly.
Old Dallas team on a B2B in UTAH. 3rd game in 4 days.
Utah has been playing great on a days rest at home.
Even though I do think the Jazz are a tad overrated because of the ease of there schedule. I still dont see those old Dallas legs having any interest tonight.
Thinking maybe UNDER also
Jazz have fifth highest strength of schedule.
I still think they are overrated. 8 of the 13 games have been at home and have been fortunate to play teams coming off of back to backs. Plus, playing in Utah only increases the advantage. Maybe they aren't we will see, but right now I think they are.
Lets see what Dad & BW takes are on this game
Hi all, can I know who is DAD?
Thanks.
Whos your daddy?Hi all, can I know who is DAD?
Thanks.
Jazz are definitely over rated right now. Make a mental note next time this situation comes up
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jcygts6 gave PR9 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.