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Gudis knows all
I've decided to stop lurking and start getting involved in these forums. I've been a lifetime nba fan, and after dabbling in sports betting in the past my hope is to achieve bonafied capper status.
I hope this thread leads to some constructive discussions, and I look forward to picking the brains of some of SBR's greats. I'll post my leans and picks before I goto bed tonight.
Do you know the meaning of life?
I'd tell you but Wikipedia is down for SOPA/PIPA protest. Ask me again tomorrow.Originally Posted by GTS925
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1/18/12 Picks
DEN +6 (-110) @ PHI
Risking 2.5 units
I like this bet mainly because I believe the betting public will be deceived by the "surface stats" of the match up (i.e. PHI is 10-3 and 6-0 at home, and 1st in the league in point differential at +15. Compare that to DEN being 9-5 and on the second of 2 B2B road games). Denver covers tonight because they play excellent on the road, and tonight's win @MIL was mostly at the comfortable "we're up double digits" pace, despite MIL being previously undefeated at home, and 2 nights of rest before yesterdays game should mean relative freshness. Philly has had the 3rd easiest schedule, and can only boast victories over teams like PHX, IND and GSW. Denver will be the Sixers toughest opponent since losing to Portland in their opener, and their toughness vs elite/strong opponents thus far has gone untested. Denver's offense is second in the league and they will be coming off one of their best defensive performances, forcing 19 TO's. I think this defensive energy carries over to tonight's game and DEN will again kill it with fast breaks and balanced scoring.
I think there is tons of value in this match up, thus the 2.5 unit wager.
Good luck Gudis
How much are your unit ranges? Asking since you have 2.5 for Wed.
My unit ranges from 1-5, however I'll rarely throw out a 3+ unit wager.Good luck Gudis
How much are your unit ranges? Asking since you have 2.5 for Wed.
Leans for tomorrow:
PHX +7.5 @ NYK
OKC -10.5 @ WAS
ORL -5.5 vs SAS
"winning" - charlie sheen
Best of luck mate, and welcome to the forum
BOS ML (+600) vs TOR
Risking 6 units to win 1 unit
Simply put, I believe Boston's chances of losing at home to a bargnani-less raptor team stands at greater than 6:1 odds. They badly need this win, and a this would be an especially painfull loss. The whispers of breaking up their core has to serve as a motivating factor, and they should in no way overlook this game.
WAS +11.5 (-110) vs OKC
Risking 1 unit
The BW can't be wrong...right? This is one of those games where I'm relying solely on "trap-bet" theory. This match up is heavily one sided (95% # of bets on OKC) with minimal line movement (moving .5 - 1 point within the past few hours). Also, I gotta guy who is auto fade material and hes on OKC too. This bet is being made purely on psychology and line movement. As all my basketball reasoning tells me to lean on OKC, I've tried to identify spots like these where the house seems to welcome the unbalanced action.
Looks like Hawes will sit today's game and Tony Battie/Nikola Vucevic will have to step up...
PHX +8 (-110) @ NYK
Risking 1 unit
I personally hate Dudely and Frye, and the lineup shakeup (Markieff Morris and Ronnie Price) will improve their defensive intensity going into today's game. NYK were planning to attack the flimsy PHX defense, and this shake up could very well work in the Suns favor. I won't get into why I think NYK are an awful team at the moment, I'll save it for another write up. But for now, this lineup sub is enough for me to follow through on my earlier lean.
DAL -3 (-110) @ LAC
Risking 1 unit
CP3 'doesn't look likely' for tonights game, and poor old chauncy is going to get tired quick. I love the value here, get it before it moves!
Update on PHX@NYK: Morris could miss the game b/c of flu
Results for 1/18/12:
DEN +6 (-110) @ PHI
Risking 2.5 units.....[+2.5u]
BOS ML (-600) vs TOR
Risking 6 units to win 1 unit.....[+1u]
WAS +11.5 (-110) vs OKC
Risking 1 unit.....[+1u]
PHX +8 (-110) @ NYK
Risking 1 unit.....[+1u]
DAL -3 (-110) @ LAC
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.1u]
Season Totals: +4.4 units
Overall Record: 4-1
Damn what a good day!Great start to the thread, but its only the beginning. Picks/Leans coming before bedtime, lets rinse and repeat baby!
Great night. Congrats on the winners
Thanks MexStall, appreciate it.
I might be giving the Lakers too much credit, but I'd put tomorrow's LAL @ MIA game at LA +4.5 (As of writing the line hasn't yet been set).
I also will keep a close eye on the DAL @ UTA game, as the UTA -2 spread seems a little suspicious (trap bet?).
I admit I haven't seen much play first hand from either team in the NOR @ HOU game, but I'll try to see if I can find some value here.
That being said here are my (albeit very weak) leans for tomorrow:
DAL+2 @ UTA
HOU-10 vs NOR
you didn't disappoint my expectation!
well job mate, looking forward to see nice plays everyday!
I agree to your lean on DAL+2 alsoUta is solid at home but I believe something is up with Dallas against match up between Uta. Something most of people can't expect. It's very square
Still not sure about houston game
Nice first day man, not really liking any plays for tomorrow though.
NOR +9.5 (-110) @ HOU
Risking 3 units
So we got Ariza back, the rockets will try to push it, the hornets have covered almost all games when 10 point dogs... who am I kidding... LONG LIVE BW!
NOR ML (+450) @ HOU
Risking 1 unit to win 4.5
I buy BW a virtual beer if this one hits too. Lets do it!
You dont argue with BW. You just let him do his thing to you. He's gentle. Its not so bad after you get used to it. The money is good, what can I say.
LAL ML (+190) @ MIA
Risking 1 unit to win 1.9
LAL +5.5 (-110) @ MIA
Risking 1 unit
Ok, if LA kicks it on the turnovers and controls the pace to favor their half-court style we're going to have a very close game (a fairly large if, considering Miami's speedy front court). LeBron will be great for 3 1/2 quarters, look for him to get his pass on when it matters most and shoot .50% from the charity strike in the final minutes. I don't put much stock into his flu symptoms, just a cop out for when he inevitably chokes. I look for the Lakers to establish their front court advantage early, and for Kobe to be relatively quiet (among Kobe standards) until the flow of the game has been established. Kobe gets all cold-blooded-under-bite and takes the W on the road.
Unfortunately I am on the Heat -5.5, but we can cash New Orleans
Wow I'm right there with u on lal and no. Good luck!
Heyo! All betting aside, I'm really excited for a great NBA game. Is this the game LeBron shows his critics that he does indeed possess that closer ability? Will the Heat continue to fair well without DWade? Will the Lakers/Pau look "soft" in this physical matchup? Can/Will Kobe put his team on his back like he's done many times before? Bout to tipoff - GLHF everyone!
I got Lakers +5.5 and Rockets -9.5
Great job yesterday!
Ok Artest hit a three. Anything can happen now.
Followed by a Pau three...
Lakers have to wake up... right?
Yea you can say that. I don't like when they try to push it. And why the threes? STOP SHOOTING THREES. Despite the large half time deficit I feel optimistic that LA still hasn't really capitalized on the front court advantage and Kobe cant find the bottom of the net (1/8). I don't see the Lakers fading in the second half, so lets see what can happen in the last 24
More and more speculation about Kobe being hurt. Sure looks it, he can't buy a bucket.
UTA -2.5 (-110) vs DAL
Risking 1 unit
Last second bet. I was leaning DAL from the trap bet perspective but other than the altitude being overvalued and DAL being better on the road than most people perceive. Love the momentum the Jazz have with stringing together a few quality games and fatigue will of course be on their side. Short write up so you can get the bet in.
Results for 1/19/12:
NOR +9.5 (-110) @ HOU
Risking 3 units.....[+3.0u]
NOR ML (+450) @ HOU
Risking 1 unit to win 4.5.....[-1.0u]
LAL ML (+190) @ MIA
Risking 1 unit to win 1.9.....[-1.0u]
LAL +5.5 (-110) @ MIA
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.1u]
UTA -2.5 (-110) vs DAL
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.1u]
Today's Totals: -1.2 units
Season Totals: +3.2 units
Overall Record: 5-5
Wow. That hurts. At least you hit your biggest play though, bruh.
MIL +5 (-105) @ NYK
Risking 2 units
Kings @ Spurs 196o
Risking 1 unit
Bulls @ Cavaliers (186u)
Risking 1 unit
Following LTA's plays today, I feel hes spot on with all three calls. To view his write up> http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...plays-p62.html
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