1. 02-24-09 02:04 PM #1
    kroyrunner89
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    $100 Moneyline Experiment

    With my new system, I track how well it performs predicting straight up winners. I also can use my college basketball system here too, because it predicts straight up much better than ATS. Anyways, looking at the first week of my system last night, I saw that it started 41-13 (76%) in predicting winners straight up. When I took only teams it said would win by more than 5, the record became a remarkable 26-2 (92.9%). Of course almost all of these were playing favorites, which got me to wondering just how profitable one could be playing moneylines when the vast majority of their picks are favorites. I'm going to use $100 for just this purpose, to see how much money I can turn it into by the end of the season. My early goal is $500, I should have a good idea after a couple weeks just how realistic that is. I may throw some parlays in before everything is over with, but to begin with I'm just going to do straight bets. So, here we go!
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  2. 02-24-09 02:11 PM #2
    kroyrunner89
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    Monday:
    Cavaliers -3500 ($40.00 to win $1.14)
    Lakers -360 ($10.00 to win $2.78)
    Rockets -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00)
    Suns -310 ($10.00 to win $3.23)
    One more note, yes, I'll be playing ridiculous lines like the Cavs from time to time. It all adds up in the long run...
    Last edited by kroyrunner89; 02-24-09 at 02:25 PM. Reason: Had to adjust Cavs bet so my book would take it
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  3. 02-24-09 02:14 PM #3
    superslinky
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    Well all I can say is good luck.
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  4. 02-24-09 02:21 PM #4
    kroyrunner89
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    lol thanks, i may bust in a couple weeks who knows but its only $100 bucks so figured i'd give it a shot just for the fun of it
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  5. 02-24-09 03:20 PM #5
    Vesuvius
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Monday:
    Cavaliers -3500 ($40.00 to win $1.14)

    One more note, yes, I'll be playing ridiculous lines like the Cavs from time to time. It all adds up in the long run...
    So basically what you are saying is if this game was played over 35 times, the Cavs would win every single one to profit. Sorry but this has bust written all over it.
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  6. 02-24-09 03:46 PM #6
    BLUUR05
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    kory y dont you parlay them all into one.. i think its like 1-1.59
    instead you would have

    risk $70
    Cavaliers -3500
    Lakers -360
    Rockets -200
    Suns -310

    win 111

    i mean if its 26-2 then you have no worries!
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  7. 02-24-09 04:13 PM #7
    kroyrunner89
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    haha i'm not a huge fan of large parlays, i don't like going over 3 teams very much. and i'd like more than a week of results before i decide to start doing them. yeah its 26-2, but i'm a big believer that past results don't guarantee future performance. i'll start this out a bit on the conservative side, in a week or so though parlays will probably be a bigger part of this thread.
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  8. 02-24-09 05:57 PM #8
    kroyrunner89
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    Adding:
    2 Team Parlay:
    Suns -325 & Lakers -370 ($10.00 to win $6.61)
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  9. 02-24-09 06:26 PM #9
    icemantbi
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Adding:
    2 Team Parlay:
    Suns -325 & Lakers -370 ($10.00 to win $6.61)
    Why not tease em? You get way better odds...

    $120 to win $100

    And the spreads are -2 and -1.5. In other words, pick em.

    just a thought (yes, I have the Lakers and Suns teased tonight)
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  10. 02-24-09 08:14 PM #10
    kroyrunner89
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    wow very good thought, i'll watch for that in the future it didn't even cross my mind i just stopped by very briefly to make the play. i said this is the moneyline thread though, in the future i'll just put those teasers in my other thread and keep dumb parlays like that outta here
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  11. 02-24-09 10:50 PM #11
    kroyrunner89
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Monday:
    Cavaliers -3500 ($40.00 to win $1.14) Win
    Lakers -360 ($10.00 to win $2.78) Win
    Rockets -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00) Win
    Suns -310 ($10.00 to win $3.23) Win
    Parlay:     Suns -325 & Lakers -370 ($10.00 to win $6.61) Win
    Man, wishing I had parlayed all four of these like BLUUR05 had suggested lol. Regardless though, profitable day and the system continued to prove itself. To be honest, it did have Orlando winning by more than 5 as well, but thank god I was smart enough to leave that one alone today. Cya all tomorrow with the next round of plays.

    Straight Wagers: 4-0
    Parlays: 1-0
    Bankroll: $118.76
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  12. 02-25-09 11:57 AM #12
    kroyrunner89
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    Alright big day, I have three plays I'm very confident in, and I'm adding another two because they make the cut, but barely. I'm going to go a bit parlay crazy in addition to my straight wagers today, I'd be pretty surprised if it isn't another profitable night. Here's what I've got:

    Clemson -600 ($12.00 to win $2.00)
    Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $3.58)
    Pacers -330 ($12.00 to win $3.64)
    Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $2.40)
    Magic -145 ($12.00 to win $8.28)
    76ers -195 ($12.00 to win $6.15)
    Parlay: Mavericks -335 and Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.70)
    Parlay: Pacers -330 and Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.76)
    Parlay: Celtics -500, Pacers -330, and Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $12.36)

    That's it for tonight, good luck with your betting guys.
    Last edited by kroyrunner89; 02-25-09 at 02:58 PM. Reason: Added Clemson
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  13. 02-25-09 12:13 PM #13
    dmf5075
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    bol with ur new system.. sounds kick ass
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  14. 02-25-09 09:54 PM #14
    kroyrunner89
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    looks like my fate for the day hinges on the celtics... i'm pissed i didn't have the discipline to hold off on the clemson play but whatcha gunna do, thank god i didn't throw them in any parlays. anyways, as long as boston takes care of business it'll be another profitable day, otherwise things could get pretty ugly pretty quick
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  15. 02-26-09 12:18 AM #15
    kroyrunner89
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post

    Clemson -600 ($12.00 to win $2.00)Loss
    Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $3.58)Win
    Pacers -330 ($12.00 to win $3.64) Win
    Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $2.40) Loss
    Magic -145 ($12.00 to win $8.28) Win
    76ers -195 ($12.00 to win $6.15) Win
    Parlay: Mavericks -335, Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.70)     Loss
    Parlay: Pacers -330, Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.76) Loss
    Parlay: Celtics -500, Pacers -330, and Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $12.36) Loss
    Well, all I can say eff the Celtics, totally screwed my day. This is why I should stay away from parlays, ugh. Well I may be back tomorrow to dig myself out of this hole, I don't know if I'll have any plays though with the limited number of NBA games.

    CBB: 0-1
    NBA: 8-1
    2 Team Parlays: 1-2
    3 Team Parlays: 0-1
    Bankroll: $80.41
    Last edited by kroyrunner89; 02-26-09 at 02:45 PM. Reason: fixed record
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  16. 02-26-09 12:22 AM #16
    ATB515
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    put 40 on L.A

    Wont win much though

    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Well, all I can say eff the Celtics, totally screwed my day. This is why I should stay away from parlays, ugh. Well I may be back tomorrow to dig myself out of this hole, I don't know if I'll have any plays though with the limited number of NBA games.

    CBB: 0-1
    NBA: 9-1
    2 Team Parlays: 1-2
    3 Team Parlays: 0-1
    Bankroll: $80.41
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  17. 02-26-09 12:28 AM #17
    kroyrunner89
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    ya looks like LA is gunna be a play, just waiting on the line
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  18. 02-26-09 02:44 PM #18
    kroyrunner89
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    After the Celtics debacle last night, combined with my inability to get to the Lakers line quickly, I decided against making it a straight play. However, I threw a "Money in the wind" parlay together that I actually feel like has great shot at hitting. if it doesn't, oh well, at least I can say I had fun. Here's what I've got.

    Parlay: Lakers -800, Wake Forest -800, Illinois -335, Washington U. -165 ($10.41 to win $17.07)
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  19. 02-27-09 12:37 AM #19
    kroyrunner89
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Parlay: Lakers -800, Wake Forest -800, Illinois -335, Washington U. -165 ($10.41 to win $17.07) Win
    Another nice day, all four of my system money line plays hit and snagged me a pretty nice parlay. Early indications are that I'll have a whole lot of NBA tomorrow, probably won't do anything too crazy and just straight wager all of them we'll see. I'll have them posted late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.

    Bankroll: $97.48
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  20. 02-27-09 12:53 AM #20
    ATB515
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    nice work


    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Another nice day, all four of my system money line plays hit and snagged me a pretty nice parlay. Early indications are that I'll have a whole lot of NBA tomorrow, probably won't do anything too crazy and just straight wager all of them we'll see. I'll have them posted late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.

    Bankroll: $97.48
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  21. 02-27-09 02:04 AM #21
    MrMonkey
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    Good job Kroy! Keep plugging away my friend!

    MrMonkey
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  22. 02-27-09 12:18 PM #22
    kroyrunner89
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    Okay well I weeded out one play today just because the injury situation is up in the air, but that still leaves 8 nice ones. I'm gunna keep it simple today and straight wager them all. Here's what I've got:

    Hornets -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90)
    Magic -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90)
    Bulls -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00)
    Celtics -925 ($10.00 to win $1.08)
    Hawks -215 ($10.00 to win $4.65)
    Trailblazers -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00)
    Mavericks -500 ($10.00 to win $2.00)
    Warriors EV ($10.00 to win $10.00)
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  23. 03-02-09 01:38 PM #23
    kroyrunner89
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Hornets -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90) Win
    Magic -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90) Loss
    Bulls -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00) Loss
    Celtics -925 ($10.00 to win $1.08) Win
    Hawks -215 ($10.00 to win $4.65) Win
    Trailblazers -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00) Win
    Mavericks -500 ($10.00 to win $2.00) Win
    Warriors EV ($10.00 to win $10.00) Loss
    been out of town the past couple days so haven't had a chance to make picks. anyways, i'll keep this goin even though it isn't going so hot... i'll keep my record and bankroll up to date in my sig so i don't have to do it after every day in every post. today here is what i've got:

    Hawks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71)
    Spurs -380     ($10.00 to win $2.63)
    Longhorns -385 ($10.00 to win $2.60)

    Parlay Longhorns, Hawks, and Spurs     ($10.00 to win $15.01)
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  24. 03-03-09 12:08 AM #24
    kroyrunner89
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    Quote Originally Posted by kroyrunner89 View Post
    Hawks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71) Win
    Spurs -380     ($10.00 to win $2.63) Win
    Longhorns -385 ($10.00 to win $2.60) Win

    Parlay Longhorns, Hawks, and Spurs     ($10.00 to win $15.01) Win
    Had a nice day to get me back in the green, meanwhile since I've been tracking this thing SU its been doing pretty well ATS. Let me update some complete system records here really quick:
    NBA SU: 79-30
    NBA Top SU: 49-8
    NBA ATS: 64-45
    NCAA Best SU: 56-11

    I'm kind of at a loss what to do right now, NCAA is awful ATS so i'll just keep riding it's best ATS plays i guess. As for NBA, it has been very solid straight up but its reaching a point ATS where i feel like i need to start making plays off of it. i'm going to look a little further into it and see if winning % ATS increases with strength like my NFL system did. Meanwhile, we'll keep this thread going and hopefully make some significant gains with our bankroll in the next few weeks. cya all tomorrow
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  25. 03-03-09 12:30 PM #25
    kroyrunner89
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    Rockets -475 ($10.00 to win $2.11)
    Bucks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71)
    Magic -285 ($10.00 to win $3.51)
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  26. 03-04-09 12:19 AM #26
    kroyrunner89
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    Quote Originally Posted by ************ View Post
    Rockets -475 ($10.00 to win $2.11) Win
    Bucks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71) Loss
    Magic -285 ($10.00 to win $3.51) Win
    slight loss today, the bucks really choked late after controlling most of the game. oh well we'll get em tomorrow.
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