[PR9]

What a terrific night at the betting table !!

I will have to go over 3 hours of notes this morning after I pop a bottle of champagne and celebrate the new year, to compile everything..

But one selection I looked forward to on the schedule is Grizzlies @ Bulls Sunday.

The Bulls are coming home from a long weeklong western swing. The Grizz are embarking on their roadtrip with Chicago as their 1st game (not technically a roadtrip but the Grizzlies will be taking 6 airplane flights for their next 6 games as they have one stop at home)

1) Teams coming off a roadtrip, like Chicago is, tend to not play as well as their mean in their 1st home game (first half and 1st Q plays I like in these spots)...

2) Teams going on a roadtrip tend to show good effort in the first game as they have goals of splitting. And playing well early in a trip knocks that out of the way. ( Grizzlies first road game)

Another factor to look at is Chicago had a very successful road trip. Whenever you can "split" your trip and go .500 , your happy. But the Bulls went ,.750 and won 3 out of 4. So they may feel content. If they came home 1-3 from the trip then I'm sure they would be more hungry for a win.

Moreover, the Grizz got off the the snide with their first victory in a blowout win. However, they still have a losing record so I don't think it will have a negative effect like a blowout win can do to a team in their next game. They know what their record is and there's nothing to boast about.

Furthermore, I like some matchups that favor the Griz.

With these 2 heads colliding and clashing in one game tomorrow, I will have to say that the Grizz are a team I'm leaning heavily early on.. but again, i need to look a notes and more data to make it a firm pick. And yes, I know it's the Bulls home opener and all that. That's why I need to look into my notes further.

Here's the resume of the AWESOME night I had tonight with my wagers. I hit on a lot of bets, and what a way to bring in the new year !

covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101225130

Thousands of $$$ baby !! ;-)

[PerfectGrape]

I think the Bulls will be very hungry for a win, the UC will be bumping. Noah always gets pumped up at home, Booz looking to redeem himself from last year, Scalabrine will get the bench cheering. 7.5 seems high, but Bulls are in form right now. I'm just watching this one, on Lakers/Nugs U198.

[monologue]

thanks for good info but I think i will skip that game. What do u think about min+3 and por+3? anything look good to u?

[PR9]

I think the Bulls will be very hungry for a win, the UC will be bumping. Noah always gets pumped up at home, Booz looking to redeem himself from last year, Scalabrine will get the bench cheering. 7.5 seems high, but Bulls are in form right now. I'm just watching this one, on Lakers/Nugs U198.

I understand it's their home opener but that only lasts for a quarter. Then, you're IN A GAME... As the Clippers found out the other night in their home opener after the flashy early dunks.

Last year, after the Bulls first long roadtrip of the season, they lost to ORL by 30 points in their first return home game.

I haven't picked it yet, i need to look into it further. I may buy points then may parlay it to a ML, or tease it. I have to look into the matchup more as I do know there's factors there.

+ the grizz have beaten the Bulls in 4 of the last 5 meetings..

[PR9]

I really like:

DEN. ML

[ksnooksk]

I just dont trust this game. I feel like the Grizz dont have a pg to guard Rose.

[PerfectGrape]

I understand it's their home opener but that only lasts for a quarter. Then, you're IN A GAME... As the Clippers found out the other night in their home opener after the flashy early dunks.

Last year, after the Bulls first long roadtrip of the season, they lost to ORL by 30 points in their first return home game.

I haven't picked it yet, i need to look into it further. I may buy points then may parlay it to a ML, or tease it. I have to look into the matchup more as I do know there's factors there.

+ the grizz have beaten the Bulls in 4 of the last 5 meetings..

Good point. I still think they will be fired up more than boozual. I don't think because they went 3/4 they will be "less hungry". Looking forward to any other thoughts/stats you share. Also expectations are higher this season than last

[Pauulzcappin]

Grizz, Nuggets and Portland

[rdkjglsk]

boston/miami/orlando/dallas ml parlay

[PR9]

I'm really feeling Nets +3 . The nets played well in atlanta and were only a couple points away at the end. The cavs lost a heartbreaker late to Indy, but indy played like total crap for 90% of that game , like they did last night in detroit. Atlanta was a much better test than indy was. Also hearing anderson verejao may be out and that is HUGE!

Also feeling Miami Heat 1Q and a 1st half play. I believe miami will not play as well against the poor teams this year. Listening to spoelstra and observing every media interview since the start of training camp, he will reduce minutes against the poor teams and play his players against the good top level teams, especially when its a primetime tv matchup. The heat DESTROYED the poor teams last year but played subpar against the top teams (only played well vs Lakers going 2-0). I fully believe that this trend will REVERSE this year.

This reduction by Spoelstra will have a mental effect on the psyche of the players. They will go into games against poor teams with more of a relaxed demeanor.

The Heat wanted to shut up the road crowds last year with all the "boos", and came out to pummel the poor teams. This year, the Heat are "pacing" themselves just doing enough to win. Their eyes are set on the playoffs and championships. the regular season is just for "practice time", an experimental phase for lineups/rotations/concepts/plays preparing for the "post" season.

HOWEVER ! The Heat are due for a blowout win. This is not on the road like the minny and bobcat games, today they're AT HOME on new year's day. they will put on a show at the start (or at some point in this game) in front of the home crowd. Moreover, the Heat KILLED the bobcats in the 2nd half of the last charlotte game and that has to linger in the bobcats minds. And they PROVED they have fragile minds after they lost a nail-biter to the heat by responding with a BLOWOUT loss at home to orlando.. i watched that game, had money on it, and the bobcats were HORRIBLE !! So they are travelling to miami with a fragile mindset while miami is at home on new years, in a revenge scenario looking to POUND them.

Last year. The Heat POUNDED poor teams at home on weekend games that had early starts..... maybe the boys in miami looking to put on a pounding before heading to south beach to party. ( Just one of the reasons I had money on the nuggets yesterday is because the lakers have a very poor record in covering afternoon weekend games)

I also see the line moving up in some "reliable" places to 14.5 .... despite the placed bet % being heavily in favor of charlotte


I also like Mavs -3 in Minny.. May place a ML on Dallas

Here is a scenario to ponder:

1) Charlotte almost beats miami at home, it was a HEARTBREAKING loss for the bobcats as they placed a lot of effort in that game only for miami to come back and win.

2) In the next game, Orlando comes to town ( a veteran team), and absolutely destroys the bobcats in charlotte from the start of the game through.. that loss to miami still lingered for the young team as they were flat as hell against orlando.

And now:

1) Minnesota at home had a HEARTBREAKING loss to miami, on a final shot once again. That was a HUGE gamee for Minny as they circled miami on their calendar

2) A young Minnesota team is facing a veteran team in the Mavs coming into town looking for a win, and looking to get on a roll after their first win the other night.

I have a lot of notes to look at today and won't be placing many bets. probably only 5. Yesterday i bet a lot of games.

ps- getting a little "iffy" on the bulls game. Coming home on new years day is scaring me a bit

[PR9]

blazers/clips line and line movement is funny

[PR9]

I'm feeling Orlando today.


ps - if you play your cards right, you can make a killing on parlays today

[rdkjglsk]

ended up parlaying Miami 1H with Dallas and Orlando ML. Also Clippers ML with Memphis points

[PR9]

ended up parlaying Miami 1H with Dallas and Orlando ML. Also Clippers ML with Memphis points

BOL !

[PR9]

Hey guys.

I'm hearing that they're going with the public a little more today on some games.

So be cautious.

This is changing my strategy a bit and I may just lay off and only bet a game or 2 in the next hour... I made $xxxx today in the NFL with no more bets pending in that league today. Plus I had a great night last night. I'm not going to push it and will make some very judgemental and conservative wagers for tonight's NBA. Going small and wise is the way tonight.


Good luck all !!

[PR9]

leaning towards mavs/t-wolves OVER a 201.5

[PR9]

leaning Cavs/Nets OVER 184.5

Magic also looking like a good play from my notes

[monologue]

Hey PR, are u betting on mia tonight?

[PR9]

some yes

Orlando 1Q

[monologue]

damn... im betting offline and on BETDAQ recently.. betdaq sucks so bad.. no one is betting on basketball so i cant make any bet even if i want. should've open account in BetFair instead..

[PR9]

i may have to rethink my over lean on dallas/wolves OVER.. I got this on another boards and the following guy has been right on about 80% going by referees so far his season. He posts this info every day...

MINN/DAL TOTAL 202

Here are the refs...
TONY BROTHERS - Under on 3 of last 4 DAL games with the 1 over being an OT game. Also under on the last 3 MINN games.

KEVIN CUTLER - Under on the last 4 MINN games. These 4 have all gone WAY under.... by 24, 39, 30 and 14pts.

DAVID GUTHRIE - Under on 5 of the last 6 MINN games.

Trend is 15-2 combined (with one of those overs in OT). WIsh it was a slightly larger sample. But some other factors have me making this a STRONG PLAY.

DEN -5

Here are the refs...
BILL KENNEDY - LAKERS have NOT covered 5 of the last 6 and DEN HAS covered 5 of the last 6.

TOMMY NUNEZ JR - Lakers have NOT covered the last 4 and 8 of the last 10. Denver HAS covered the last 3 and 8 of the last 9.

LEON WOOD - LAKERS have NOT covered 4 of last 6 and Denver HAS covered 4 of last 5.

Trend is a combined 34-8 (81%) with a large sample size. Statistically, this should be a strong play,

Best of luck, use them however you like.

[PR9]

WOW Orlando looking absolutely atrocious early. I'm Glad I bet small on it and placed more than double on the miami 1st quarter. I was 100% sure on that one

[blackberry_juice]

PR you seem to have great insight on recent trends and know to pick your spots. Why don't you start your own thread you can update daily and track your record and units? It'd make it much easier for tailers like myself to follow. Keep the great info coming! thanks

[petermans23]

Thanks PR9 for great insights and good comments regarding todays plays!

Are you posting all your plays at cover.com?

Hope you continue this thread every day.

Do you also bet collage basketball, hockey and football?

[PR9]

i may have to rethink my over lean on dallas/wolves OVER.. I got this on another boards and the following guy has been right on about 80% going by referees so far his season. He posts this info every day...

MINN/DAL TOTAL 202

Here are the refs...
TONY BROTHERS - Under on 3 of last 4 DAL games with the 1 over being an OT game. Also under on the last 3 MINN games.

KEVIN CUTLER - Under on the last 4 MINN games. These 4 have all gone WAY under.... by 24, 39, 30 and 14pts.

DAVID GUTHRIE - Under on 5 of the last 6 MINN games.

Trend is 15-2 combined (with one of those overs in OT). WIsh it was a slightly larger sample. But some other factors have me making this a STRONG PLAY.

DEN -5

Here are the refs...
BILL KENNEDY - LAKERS have NOT covered 5 of the last 6 and DEN HAS covered 5 of the last 6.

TOMMY NUNEZ JR - Lakers have NOT covered the last 4 and 8 of the last 10. Denver HAS covered the last 3 and 8 of the last 9.

LEON WOOD - LAKERS have NOT covered 4 of last 6 and Denver HAS covered 4 of last 5.

Trend is a combined 34-8 (81%) with a large sample size. Statistically, this should be a strong play,

Best of luck, use them however you like.

Look at that boys and girls. That guy with his referee numbers has been correct about 85% of the time in games this year. I've been tracking him. The only thing is, is that he posts his stuff 2 hours before game time and sometimes I'm not online to make a play. I'm lucky i caught him today.

I was going to bet the "over" for the Mavs game, but as soon as I saw that I doubled up on the under.


.

[PR9]

- double post -

[Rolo1984]

Look at that boys and girls. That guy with his referee numbers has been correct about 85% of the time in games this year. I've been tracking him. The only thing is, is that he posts his stuff 2 hours before game time and sometimes I'm not online to make a play. I'm lucky i caught him today.

I was going to bet the "over" for the Mavs game, but as soon as I saw that I doubled up on the under.


.

Can you tel us who it is and where he posts?

[migz]

Look at that boys and girls. That guy with his referee numbers has been correct about 85% of the time in games this year. I've been tracking him. The only thing is, is that he posts his stuff 2 hours before game time and sometimes I'm not online to make a play. I'm lucky i caught him today.

I was going to bet the "over" for the Mavs game, but as soon as I saw that I doubled up on the under.


.

This is helpful. Too bad i wasn't able to bet on it!

[PR9]

Can you tel us who it is and where he posts?

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101226350

10-2 using this system alone.