[cocknocker]

The Atlanta Hawks have had ats victories in 6 out of the last 7 times that they have played the Grizzlies. The hawks have had 4 days to work out the kinks and get their motion offense back on track. Josh Smith has been to three straight practices and is set to go in this one, which will help Atlanta's rebounding on the evening. The Hawks need to take care of the Grizzlies, as they are only 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ats in their last 5 road games. They hav also given up an average of 112 points per game in ther last three contests, so there's no defensive resistence there. The Hawks do play defense and they give up only 97.1 points per game overall, and only 94.2 at home. I am taking the chalk on this one, as Atlanta is due for a blowout win, and who better to surrender one to thm than the Grizzlies.

Atlanta-8

The Pacers just gave their all last night against the runner up from last year (Lakers) and won a game at the buzzer. What do they get as a gift? The Celtics the following night Back to back on the road, fellas against the best defensive NBA team)in Beantown, still smarting with revenge for the 16 point beatdown that the Pacers put on them 11/1/08. Oh my, get your popcorn ready. The fatigue will set in in the second half, and the Celtics still have not forgotten how Indiana was still hoisting three pointers at the end of their last encounter with less than a minute to go. Doc won't have any remorse for th Pacers in this one. The matchup at point is absurdly in the Celtics favor as well. Look for Indiana to take the 1st half and then get blown away in the 2nd half. The Pacers average 48.8 to Boston's 49.2 in the first halves. However, with an 8-2 ats record against the Pacers, it is obvious what happens in the second halves.

Boston-12 *PC Play

The Lakers are 4-1 ats in their last 5 games against the Sixers, a team that is about as up and down as they come. The Sixers are 4-1 ats against the Lakers at home, but that record was not accomplished against this version of the Lakers with Gasol AND Bynum in the lineup. Philly went to overtime to dispatch of the Bulls in a 2nd of a home and home series. Now comes the reality thatthey are just in the way of a train. The Lakers lost a buzzer beater against the pacers last night, and will arrive in RockyTown with a bad mood. Kobe hates losses. The Lakers usually lead at the half of these contests 50.6 to 46.6. So if the 1st half line is around 4, then you're good and you have my blessing to pound it. Overtime wears at the body. Philly will be feeling it when the second wave (Lakers' bench) wears them down. This is a homecoming for Kobe as he spent his prep scholl years at Lower Marion High School. He always shows out in Philly. I think he will go for 35. Lakers pullaway in the 4th quarter.

Lakers-7

I am watching the line for Utah and Miami as well. Miami is in the last game of a 5 game west coast trip and they have alternate wins and losses over those 4 games. With overtime in thier last game at Golden State and scoring 130 points, I am really interested in what number the linemaker can come up with to discourage me from taking the Jazz, especially since they lost their last home game to New Jersey by 17 points. True Miami is 8-2 ats against the Jazz over the last 10, however, look at the spreads that Utah was handed in the last two games in particular and they have been an average favorite of 9 points. I believe that Miami should win the 1st half as they are usually ahead by average scores of 49 to 44.7. With the injuries that the Jazz have, they will be given a much smaller spread than usual. I project that the line will be 4.5 to 5.5, to stop people from cashing tickets (by fading the Jazz when they play the Heat) when they look up the trends on this game and think it's a free money giveaway.

Utah-4.5 (projected)

[The_Kid]

I'm eyeing that Lakers game too. They're going to win me back the $ I lost today on them. I like that Boston game too. There is no doubt that revenge will be on their minds. Love reading the plays and analysis. Keep up the great work.

[nick2060]

damn happy to see ATL on your plays, good luck tommorrow

[Wilforth]

Good write-up. Interesting.

[Awesome Aussie]

How does Boston come up at half time guys?

[cocknocker]

Styles likes Oklahoma City+8.5 or more tomorrow against the Bobcats, as the Cats are 1-3 ats when made a favorite of over 8 points, and the under, which is 4-0 when the Bobcats are a favorite of over 8 points as well. The Bobcats never cover when they are supposed to cover. They are 3-6-1 as favorites over their last 10 such situations overall.

[vassman86]

I'll be taking those three picks of yours, CK. ATL -9, LAL -7, BOS -12.

One game that catches my eye is New Orleans vs Phoenix. Hornets are favoured at -5.5 right now, after opening at -5. New orleans plays well against Phoenix. They've won the past five games straight up.
For Phoenix, this is the first of two back-to-back road games (New Orleans, and Dallas). I think Old Man Shaq will see limited minutes in this game.
On the other hand, after tomorrow night's game against Phoenix, New Orleans doesn't play until Saturday, when they host the lowly Grizzlies.

[vassman86]

I'll be taking those three picks of yours, CK. ATL -9, LAL -7, BOS -12.

One game that catches my eye is New Orleans vs Phoenix. Hornets are favoured at -5.5 right now, after opening at -5. New orleans plays well against Phoenix. They've won the past five games straight up.
For Phoenix, this is the first of two back-to-back road games (New Orleans, and Dallas). I think Old Man Shaq will see limited minutes in this game.
On the other hand, after tomorrow night's game against Phoenix, New Orleans doesn't play until Saturday, when they host the lowly Grizzlies.

What looks even better for this game is New Orleans 1st Half. In their previous five meetings (which the Hornets won straight up), at half-time, the Hornets have led by 12, 4, 8, and 13, and trailed by 11 (Jan 05, 2008 - played in Phoenix).

Totals at the half: 100, 114, 118, 125, 105.

New Orleans 1st Half -3

[sac25274]

CK, do you think Bobcats will win this game against OKC? Bobcats has won both of the games from their last meeting. Thanks.

[wangichu]

disappointed in the kings effort down the stretch, losing a lead with 2 minutes to go... i'll have to pound them next time they meet in sacto.

i'm on the same plays here... i already hit up lakers, hawks and celtics... gotta get em' early as they'll be skyrocketting.

debating on MIL -4, serving up some revenge to the tired bulls who just got slapped around and are playing their 3rd in 4

[showtime2000]

CK, looking good with your plays. PC play it is! Let's get us some moooola!

What are your thoughts on MIN at Orlando? Minnesota has won 4 of it's last 5 in Orlando with the last 2 coming by 1 point. ATS Minnesota is 4-1ats last 5 in Orlando. Aswell, Minnesota has not covered the spread in it's last 4 games. Line's at +9 this morning.

[Netprofit]

I am considering to hit very hard on -13 with Boston. Would like to just check one thing:

What are the percentages of money at this spread? Is everyone betting to Boston given the revenge factor or is it quite even?

[Jshearer22]

Let's go Hawks!

[cocknocker]

I played the Lakers at -6 last night once I saw the figures on Sportsinsights, I bought a point to bring my spread down to Lakers-6, I got the Cetltics at -12, as I know that this spread will go up and with good reason. Atlanta's spread I feel will stay right where it is due to the lackluster ats record that they have had lately. If the linesmaker can get even money on both sides of the fence, he will be happy with that, as obviously he is having problems trying to figure out how to handicap the Hawks himself. I want to be in the parade, and not a spectator when they hit their stride. Situationally, I think that this is a great situation for them to get the cover.

Obviously, the linemaker is still trying to trick bettors into taking Miami this morning. And when the research is done by potential bettors he knows that they will pounce on the Heat, rationalizing that they have the better ats record and the Jazz played last night. But these are the younger jazz players playing and not the old. Harpring, Kirilenko, Boozer, Brevin Knight, Jarron Collins are all at or over 30 years old. The average age of the 10 players left on the roster is 23.5. And Coach Sloan gives all of them time.

Teams don't respond well after playing down to the wire games in thier next game. I smell blowout in this one. Maybe even starting in the 1st half. The linemaker will compensate for the Jazz injuries and Miami ats record against them. As stated, I am waiting on the lines for this one.

Updates: Done means that I have already played these

Lakers-6 (Done with 1 point buy)
Celtics-12 (Done)
Hawks-9 (Done)
Utah-4.5 (Projected. Possible 1st half and game)

Styles

Oklahoma/Charlotte under 191.5 (So she is waiting)
Oklahoma City +8.5 (Also waiting as well. It will go up)

[africanroller]

I have placed on the Lakers -8 and the Hawks -9 but the Celtics at -14 just doesnt look good and Im from Beantown. The Celtics are 1-4 ats when favorite by 10+. I think for me I will be playing the halves instead of ther game line.

Lets get some money

[cocknocker]

Boy was I spot on with my Utah projected line. It stands at Utah-5 (neatly between the key numbers). It makes no sense to take it down to 4, as it would still take a 6 point win for me to get the money anyway. So I am taking it straight at 5. That means that the 1st half spread will be in the neighborhood of Utah-2.5 or 3. After 10 and 9.5 spreads the linemaker did exactly as i figured and gave the Jazz a much more manageable spread. Wait until you see the side percentages for this game once everyone has "figured" out that Miami has the Jazz. For that reason alone, I feel that this will be one of those lines that stas the same despite all of the money being on Miami, and people will start to wonder why it hasn't changed somewhere around 2pm pst. I doubt very seriously if the line will go down to 3 even if 100% of bettors are going to be on the Heat's side.The problem is that the air is thin, and the refs will help them out with a ton of calls. They aren't 8-2 at home for no reason.

[killersweet]

CK, love your Lakers –6 play. I have done the same thing. Hope we cash that tonight!

[maddogmadden86]

CK i need your help brother my book never allowed me to get celtics are -12 it opened at -14 as well as the lakers are -7.5 right now i got the hawks in but need your insight on what to do for the celtics and lakers i love the celtics play last night was waiting for the line to show up but didnt until 15 minutes ago and opened at -14 espcially it being a pc play i want to be able to hammer this

[cocknocker]

Oh well, when I went to place my bet, the line had dropped to Utah-4.5 already. With all of the money in the entire free world on Miami (90%). The line may drop to 4. Now if that happens i will take it at Utah-3. I am waiting now, as the public is all over Miami even more than I originally thought.

Utah-3 (waiting for the line to drop to 4 and buying a point)

After 1:00pm pst CK Mafia, I will not be around again until 5:00 pst as I have some things to do about town to get ready for the Missus birthday on Saturday. I will drop back by breifly at 5:00 to check in on the goings on quickly, and then it's off to the Cigar Bar for Jack Daniels XO and Cinnamon Cohibas.

[cnleaf]

LAL 1st half.
As beaten by the buzzer shot yesterday, LAL should come out strong today. Kobe hates losing as u said, especially losing the game after leading 15pts into the fourth quarter. Kobe wont allow that kind of lose to the team which is aiming at champion this season.
In the last 5 meeting, LAL is 4-1 leading in the first half. In the last 4 meeting in Philly, LAL is 3-1 leading in the first half.
CK, let me know what u think.

[cocknocker]

maddog, a word of advice. Shorten your bet up a bit, and tease the Lakers and the Celtics for half of what you were going to put up individually on each. Say for instance you were going to put up $500 on each, you would put up $500 on the teaser, fold your other $500 back over and put it back in your pocket and then play your, well, let's call it your "Championship" Teaser. Keep some of that money, sir.

[shoebox]

CK congrats on whizz!!!!

Can you tell me your thoughts on a 1st half calves who have
been one of the more solid teams in the league this year against the
defensless knickerbockers?????

[cocknocker]

Darn it cnleaf, I haven't had the time to check it out but here's my spin on that one, but I see exactly a 4 point difference on that one. Lakers usually have 50.6 or 51, and Sixers usually have 46.6 or 47. SO it looks like you may get a push on the 1st half. The numbers don't lie. It's the same thing as what happened yesterday with Wizards and Nets. The numbers indicated that the game would be tied at the half, and it almost was, with Washington being ahead by only one. I actually like the game with the Lakers minus the chalk.

[cocknocker]

shoebox,

I like New York+8.5 in the 1st half against the Cavs actually. They are getting a game spread for one half of basketball, and bettors think it's a free payday. I'm not betting it, but that's my spin on it.

[shoebox]

CK I appreciate your write ups
as far as line movements go how many points shift do you look
for when considering line/reverse line movement??
I use vegas insider I usaully look for 2-2.5 point swings??
Just wanted some advice from a pro

[maddogmadden86]

thats exactly what i was thinking CK

[cocknocker]

shoebox,

stop using Vegas Insider. Go to Sportsinsights and get the membership for 50 or so dollars and then you will have consensus numbers from 5 books instead of one, including pinnacle. VegasInsider only tracks one book. But don't get me wrong, VegasInsider is great for tracking the exact momen that a wise guy play was made, and changed the line on the Casino books, but for consensus it isn't too useful. When a line has a 2-2.5 point shift, the rule of thumb is to take the team that the points are being taken away from if the line started on them and ended up on the other side because the consensus is overwhelming in the new favorite's number. And then you add a point to your side (the side that had points taken away from it) if the point will put you on a key or "even" number (2,4,6,8,10,12). If adding the point will not put you on a key number and has you at 1 (if say it turned into a pick), then play the moneyline of the team that lost the movement. Like if a team stars off as a 2 or 2.5 point underdog, and the public pushes that team up to be a pick, but you have a moneyline of +100, then just play that instead of buying the point.

If the line moves 2-2.5 with points taken from the side of the favorite (by consensus side numbers) and 70% or so bettors are on that side, then you take the minority consensus side with points being taken away from it and less people betting it (30% in this example) that is called reverse movement, and wise guy money is there and the book's money is gained from that side.

If the public is pounding the favorite's number and it rises higher 2-2.5 points in accordance to the number of bets, then the favorite looks good.

If the line stays the same and never moves at all and the public is pounding the favorite side, then the bet is not that strong. That kind of bet you immediately go take a look at the moneyline with respect to the amount of points involved and if it doesn't add up to within 20 cents on the dollar, then you pound the dog, and the moneyline of the dog for a small play. Say you have a team favored by 7 but the moneyline is only -280/+240, and the public is more than 70% on that favorite's side then take the "minority" team and the points, and make a small wager on the moneyline as well. the moneyline should be somewhere in the area of -330 /+240 to +250. Any line around 8.5 to 9 should be -500/+400 and so on. If the number doesn't match up with the money requested, the dog is the play.

I've got to go guys. See ya around 1:00 or so. CK Mafia take over for me til I get back.

[cocknocker]

Greek has the Jazz at -3.5 now, so I bought a point for Utah and have played them at -2.5, as I don't know that I can have time to make my play later on when I check back in.

Utah-2.5 (Done)

[cocknocker]

A last footnote, the consensus started off 92% in Miami's favor on opening, and right now it is 74% in Utah's favor once the line was dropped only just a few hours after opening. The spread will begin to rise over the course of the day and land back at 5 at this rate. Only 293 bets had been cast on this game and all of that volitility happened in less than 2 hours. The wise guys are getting their plays off on Utah right now while the line is low. It may go down to 3, and then start to rise again late right before tip off.

[cs11787]

Hey Ck do you still like the lakers -8.5, and celts -14? Up to how high would you take them? And what do you think about the over on the LAL game?

[cs11787]

Also what do you tink on the knicks/cavs game? Knicks played a tough game last night and going on the road tonight to a well rested, home dominating cavs team, as much as I would like to take the knicks for their effort last night, I think im leaning cavs -15 here.

[vassman86]

The spread for the Jazz has dropped to -3.5 just now. Hot and fresh.

[zackattack]

The Atlanta Hawks have had ats victories in 6 out of the last 7 times that they have played the Grizzlies. The hawks have had 4 days to work out the kinks and get their motion offense back on track. Josh Smith has been to three straight practices and is set to go in this one, which will help Atlanta's rebounding on the evening. The Hawks need to take care of the Grizzlies, as they are only 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ats in their last 5 road games. They hav also given up an average of 112 points per game in ther last three contests, so there's no defensive resistence there. The Hawks do play defense and they give up only 97.1 points per game overall, and only 94.2 at home. I am taking the chalk on this one, as Atlanta is due for a blowout win, and who better to surrender one to thm than the Grizzlies.

Atlanta-8

The Pacers just gave their all last night against the runner up from last year (Lakers) and won a game at the buzzer. What do they get as a gift? The Celtics the following night Back to back on the road, fellas against the best defensive NBA team)in Beantown, still smarting with revenge for the 16 point beatdown that the Pacers put on them 11/1/08. Oh my, get your popcorn ready. The fatigue will set in in the second half, and the Celtics still have not forgotten how Indiana was still hoisting three pointers at the end of their last encounter with less than a minute to go. Doc won't have any remorse for th Pacers in this one. The matchup at point is absurdly in the Celtics favor as well. Look for Indiana to take the 1st half and then get blown away in the 2nd half. The Pacers average 48.8 to Boston's 49.2 in the first halves. However, with an 8-2 ats record against the Pacers, it is obvious what happens in the second halves.

Boston-12 *PC Play

The Lakers are 4-1 ats in their last 5 games against the Sixers, a team that is about as up and down as they come. The Sixers are 4-1 ats against the Lakers at home, but that record was not accomplished against this version of the Lakers with Gasol AND Bynum in the lineup. Philly went to overtime to dispatch of the Bulls in a 2nd of a home and home series. Now comes the reality thatthey are just in the way of a train. The Lakers lost a buzzer beater against the pacers last night, and will arrive in RockyTown with a bad mood. Kobe hates losses. The Lakers usually lead at the half of these contests 50.6 to 46.6. So if the 1st half line is around 4, then you're good and you have my blessing to pound it. Overtime wears at the body. Philly will be feeling it when the second wave (Lakers' bench) wears them down. This is a homecoming for Kobe as he spent his prep scholl years at Lower Marion High School. He always shows out in Philly. I think he will go for 35. Lakers pullaway in the 4th quarter.

Lakers-7

I am watching the line for Utah and Miami as well. Miami is in the last game of a 5 game west coast trip and they have alternate wins and losses over those 4 games. With overtime in thier last game at Golden State and scoring 130 points, I am really interested in what number the linemaker can come up with to discourage me from taking the Jazz, especially since they lost their last home game to New Jersey by 17 points. True Miami is 8-2 ats against the Jazz over the last 10, however, look at the spreads that Utah was handed in the last two games in particular and they have been an average favorite of 9 points. I believe that Miami should win the 1st half as they are usually ahead by average scores of 49 to 44.7. With the injuries that the Jazz have, they will be given a much smaller spread than usual. I project that the line will be 4.5 to 5.5, to stop people from cashing tickets (by fading the Jazz when they play the Heat) when they look up the trends on this game and think it's a free money giveaway.

Utah-4.5 (projected)

i like the picks but those lines have jumped...
lakers -9
celts -14
hawks -9
are they all still plays?

[cnleaf]

Those jumps make the plays look good since people are pounding the line and driving the line up. It is the logic movement. Try to get it when it's low.

[nick2060]

well you can get Atlanta -8.5 right now at a lot of places, not sure if its significant just yet but if it goes down to -8 then i might havta worry a little bit