[cocknocker]

Wow! I got creamed yesterday! I lost a cool $3500.00 on bone headed NFL coaching calls, Phoenix pathetic stretch play (they keep feeding Shaq for some reason-I don't know why-Porter may be on his way out the door soon). I can't quite recall a day where all of my teams underpeformed the way that they did. But that's the way things go in this thing of ours. You've got to take the bitter with the sweet. What a day. I will get it back during this week with ease. Starting with these two plays.

At any rate, my main man in Tennessee, Pheasy22 once told me that in a game where the teams are both crappy, you just take the over. Charlotte and Minnesota are both teams that fill the bill as crappy teams. They have gone over the total 3 out of the last 4 tmes that they have played with actual game scores averaging 207.5, and one team has always reached 100 in each of those contests.

The Warriors Stephen Jackson has not had his playing status made available to the public yet. Once that is made available, ten I can make a decision. But if Jackson doesn't play, I am taking the Warriors because his production will be replaced by someone else on the team, Morrow most likely, or Crawford, who has now had a few practices under his belt, and more than likely will get those same shots, which may be good because he is a better 3 pont shooter than Jackson actually.

Charlotte/Minnesota over 185.5
Golden State -5.5 (projected)

[ICE-BLOOD]

sjackson status seems still unknown
warriors on an 8 game skid
crawford hasn't had a gs home game yet, and waiting for him to get hot with the 3 might take a while
gl w/your plays

[roasthawg]

With you on the Cha/Min over.

[pronk]

Free $$$ fellas this afternoon:

3 team parlay (soccer)

1 Liverpool -300 (England, 3 PM EST)
2 Benfica -400 (Portugal, 3.30 PM EST)
3 Porto -450 (Portugal, 1.15 PM EST)

pays 1 to 1.

GL.

[maddogmadden86]

love the over on the min/oklahoma game also leaning towards Minny for the game they have the far supperior bench, also this over/under is fishy but i know it will go over they have never scored that little points playing each other except for one time

[OuchaDirkFan41]

That's a beautiful OV. Thanks btw for your post about the Colts/Browns game, some other guy had one too about the public puttin 91% on Indy or somethin and the line didn't really budge, anyway I saw that and decided to just put them in a parlay instead of a straight and a parlay, my guy gave me them at 4.5 so good tip, saved me couple hundred.

[cocknocker]

Actually the Browns covered for me yesterday in one of my two covers. Oh well...We'll get the books back today. I actually have a college basketball play that is too hard to ignore. I am rolling with USC minus the chalk. USF is as sorry a squad as there is and the line has already gone up from 16 to 16.5 this morning. That's what caught my atttention about the game. It is going to be Blowout City. With college basketball, any time the money line is more than two bits per point, it usually means that the team will get a large spread cover. For instance say a team is favored by 17, and the moneyline is -1900. Pull out your wallet and lay the chalk.

The Warriors are +3.5
USC is -16.5

[jalein]

Piss on it bro.

You win more than you lose...a LOT more winning than losing. Anybody has lip over a bad day, let me know and I will put that Lightning Bold force zap-thing on em PRONTO!

[IrwinFletcher]

Yo.. you aren't worried about this being the Warriors first game back after a week and 5 games on the road. This is also the fourth of 5 road games for the Heat after a tough loss at the Clippers who they don't match up well with..

I think the Heat match up well here and given the situation and fact that have to go to UT to face the Jazz in one of the toughest arena's in the league on Wed.. and the fact that GS plays zero defense makes me lean in the direction of the over 213.

Please share your logic here other than the Warriors finding a way w/o Jackson

[IrwinFletcher]

Just noticed, going back last season, the Warriors are 4-1 on the first home game returning from a road trip of 4+ games..

[WestsidePete]

I took the over 212 in the Heat/GS game...don't you see both teams scoring over 100 each in this one??

[wangichu]

i know you said something about it on another page, CK, but i like the magic to outplay boston for one half of basketball. Boston has been repeatedly starting slow and relying on their ability to apply the clamps and reverse the flow of the game. Meanwhile orlando just jumps a team in the first quarter and will normally slowly let the opponent come back, relying on their ability to make big shots down the stretch. I tend to think that the C's will ultimately cover this one, but the first half belongs to the magic, especially when i'm being given so many points...

ORL +(2.5?) 1Q (i know you don't like the 1Qs w/o plus juice, CK, but this is the quarter that orlando is at its best and boston is normally at its worse)
ORL +5 1hf

only thing that worries me is that the play almost seems too easy, but it's what should happen so i'll play it.

as for the MIN/CHAR game... i just can't play that over... minny has hit 3 straight overs and i think that is the only reason that this line is even above 180... even with 90% of the public on the over, the line has gone from 184 to 184.5 and that's it... furthermore, as crappy as these teams are, they can both play some defense (mainly charlotte, but the t-wolves keep in things defensively too sometimes). To me, the best play here is on the t-wolves... charlotte just hung tight with boston ( ) and has their value inflated in the minds of the average capper, meaning that sharp money is fading them off a big cover (that is more of an anomoly than speaking of their talent) in a situation where they are actually favored against another pathetic squad of strugglers.

Minnesota meanwhile, has had a strange every other pattern over their last 6 games, seeing them lose unsurprisingly to 3 contenders (boston, phoenix, denver), but win against detroit, philly, and oklahoma... a pretty full spectrum. Well if this potentially meaningless trend persists, they should win SU tonight, while at least covering against a team that almost still shouldn't be favored.

MIN +4 (buy the hook, because i still can't feel that comfortable putting my money in the t-wolves' hands)
small play on MIN ML

as for the other game, my favorite reason to fade miami is a team with some size under center, something not really the case with GS, however i hardly consider miami a contender at this point and a road game against a desparate golden state team returning home for some support from their home crowd is hardly a good place for the heat to find success. biedrins and turiaf should be able to control the paint and get the majority of the boards, while the only thing that would really worry me here is d-wade going into god mode. the warriors should come out firing and miami should have a hard time containing their shooters. the only reason miami is favored here is because of road wins against a compromised spurs team and an overrated suns team, but really, they shouldn't be favored on the road yet, so i will gladly take the hint of that 2pt line drop when people started jumping on golden state and get on board

GS +2

also, i will be trusting CK to know his local team and their struggles... how long has it been since phil matthews got run out of town? he used to coach at the local community college (Ventura College) i grew up by. I used to love watching his teams pummel other community colleges as a kid, but it just seemed like he couldn't make it in D1.

[wangichu]

as for MNF...

texans always have the jags number, even covering on the road against them earlier this year. JAX has been a terrible underachiever this year and has tons of interpersonel and chemistry issues that have seen their MLB mike peterson (the leader of this D) see some pine time over arguements with del rio. John henderson has also been very lonely without the presence of marcus stroud (now in buffalo) and they just haven't been the same team this year. With jags out of contention and the texans already playing well against them and being at home where they have played well of late, i have a hard time seeing anything other than a houston victory.

HOU -3 (unofficial as of yet)

still trying to figure out the line movement before playin this one though... can't remember the last time houston was actually favored here and the public is on houston despite the line moving towards JAX... insight appreciated.

[IrwinFletcher]

Wang.. thanks a bunch for the reply.. I always appreciate it when I take the time to post a legitimate concern for one of my leans and someone else shows their respect by addressing said concerns.. You've definitely made me think about Miami's recent road wins.. Vs. a totally over-rated PHX squad w/o Nash and GS returning to some well needed home lovin'.

As far as MNF goes.. Not sure what to make of the side.. If jax come come out and establish the run it'll open up things down field if not, it'll be a long night. I think Del Rio gets his squad fired up after a piss poor second half effort the last two weeks and they put some points on the board tonight. Houston will be able to score on that over-rated defense.. I'm likin' the over as their last three games have gone well over the 48.5.. Hope it gets down to 48 but not gonna hold my breath. May just play the first half over if I can get a decent number with a good price.

Cheers!

[nick2060]

Jags can run the ball and stop the run better then Houston, and in my opinion that's the easiest way to determine who has an edge. Personally i just think jags win outright. As long as Jacksonville doesn't meltdown like they did in their game last week with the two fumbles in the first quarter.

[vassman86]

In regards to the Celtics/Magic game:
Orlando is playing without Nelson, Bogans, and Pietrus. They've won three straight games, even with those injuries simply because D. Howard is dominating. The three wins have come against some struggling, sub-par teams: Philadelphia, Washington, Milwaukee.

Howard plays well against the Celtics. But can he help the Magic cover a 9pt spread against a surging, healthy Boston team? Celtics are on fire, and their team has such great chemistry.

I can see Howard scoring 30+ pts in this game, but without the support of Nelson and Pietrus on the offensive end, I don't think Orlando can cover this spread.

I'd like to take the Celtics ATS, even at -9

[maddogmadden86]

wang i love your idea with orlando first half and starting to like 1st quarter as well
Orlando averages overall
26.5 in the first quarter while giving up 24.1
Second quarter they average 26.4 and give up 22.8
Boston
scores 23.3 first quarter
gives up 23.4 first quarter
scored 24.9 first quarter gives up 21.1

Last 5 games
Orlando scores 28.2 in the first and give up 22
2nd quarter they score 27.6 give up 24.0

Boston first quarter 25.6 give up 21.4
second quarter they score 22.4 give up 23.8

Orlando away first quarter score 27.4 give up 23.6
2nd quarter scored 25.4 gave up 23.1

Boston at home firt quarter score 24.4 give up 24.1
second quarter scors 23.4 give up 21.6

That said with the points going in orlandos favor gotta take orlando plus points at half

[vassman86]

Miami/Golden State over is looking nice. GS desperately wants to put an end to that losing streak and Miami isn't a good team: they were able to exploit the Nash-less Suns, but couldn't even pull off a victory over the Clippers. The Clippers?? They suck.

Even though Jackson is out of the line-up, GS was able to score 125 pts against the Knicks. That proves that GS is able to put up points with our without Jackson.

The total for Miami/GS opened at 212, but has shot up and is sitting at 216 now. Even at 216, I'm liking the over here, and GSW +2 for the game.

[maddogmadden86]

wang i'm also likeing the twolves play

[pronk]

1 play in college hoops:

Cal State Northridge ML +125.

GL.

[HIGHestroller42]

I got 350 on the t-wolves +3 1/2

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK what are your final plays for the day

[maddogmadden86]

wang what are your thoughts miami first quarter

[vassman86]

I haven't looked into the Miami/GS first quarter, but I'd take Miami -0.5 over 54. Reasons being: I think GS will take a little while before they figure out how to stop Wade. Over, because I expect GS to come out with they're usual run and gun style of play. No defence!

[BigMoneyMan]

Well I just got in and here is what I see the line in the late game says GS the trends say Miami. GS is in a real bad situation here they really need a win but after a long road trip its just not good. Even though I rarely play them. The line says Over and the trends say the same. With GS in need of that win I like this one will go the distance which favors the OVER> gl

[wangichu]

maddog...

if i'm doing anything in the first quarter it would probably be on GS or maybe the over... i'd rather stick to the game spread though... i think i'll add the over too though... GS won't be stopping d-wade, marion, and their shooters, but i don't think god himself could stop the warriors from raining on the heat either... good call BMM, i'm with you

GS +2
OVER 217

[maddogmadden86]

woo hoo just squeked by that first half orlando wangichu! man i was worried for a little bit went pretty heavy on it i'm just glad you and CK were both on it it was my fav play for today

[vassman86]

Celts 2nd half 93.5 - over? In the past three meetings in Boston, all three games' 2nd half totals have gone to 100 or more.

[maddogmadden86]

good god this is a boring monday night football game cant wait for the golden state miami game to start to see some action

[showtime2000]

Nice call CK on the over, Wang on Orl at the half. Good luck the rest of the way on the GS/Mia game.

[cocknocker]

Back in the fold gentlemen. Been out puttin' in work today! Things are looking good so far for us. Let's hope the Warriors can keep playing with energy and not collapse from exhaustion.

[cocknocker]

Wow! What a game! The Warriors cashed the ticket, but they actually should have won the game. After Black Sunday, I'll take it!

[vassman86]

Great plays for tonight CK!

[OuchaDirkFan41]

Actually the Browns covered for me yesterday in one of my two covers. Oh well...We'll get the books back today. I actually have a college basketball play that is too hard to ignore. I am rolling with USC minus the chalk. USF is as sorry a squad as there is and the line has already gone up from 16 to 16.5 this morning. That's what caught my atttention about the game. It is going to be Blowout City. With college basketball, any time the money line is more than two bits per point, it usually means that the team will get a large spread cover. For instance say a team is favored by 17, and the moneyline is -1900. Pull out your wallet and lay the chalk.

The Warriors are +3.5
USC is -16.5

I wasn't bein sarcastic, I took Indy in one of my parlays and lost it, I was gonna straight bet them I didn't cause you, I genuinely saved a couple hundred bucks.

[africanroller]

Thanks for the Orlando 1st half play. I didnt really like anything yesterday but I did make a small wager on that one.

Keep them coming.